In the past 100 years, up to 300 villages in Germany have been cleared for coal mining and more than 100,000 people have been resettled.
Most places were abandoned without resistance.
Hardly anyone remembers Rusendorf, Runstedt or Nachterstedt.
In the 1920s, these were the first places where it was decided to clear them.
There were still a few highlights in the annals of the coal resistance, such as the stubborn refusal of the residents of Horno to leave their village in Lusatia (decision in 1977, eviction in 2004).
After a hundred years of clearance history, coal excavators are still digging through the German countryside.
But an end is in sight: only two villages are expected to give way: Mühlrose in Saxony and Lützerath in North Rhine-Westphalia.
The latter fell victim to a deal between, of all things, two Green Ministers and the coal company RWE.
A few months ago, NRW Economics Minister Mona Neubaur (Greens) and Robert Habeck (Greens) announced that the lignite phase-out in the Rhenish mining area would be brought forward to 2030.
A full eight years earlier than originally planned.
But the village of Lützerath is supposed to fall anyway.
The toxic deal
The first part of the deal - earlier exit from the coal - and actual success for Habeck and Neubaur is now likely to be overshadowed by ugly pictures from the area in the next few weeks: police operations and injured activists at the edge of the Garzweiler lignite hole are an extreme for the Greens bad press.
It is their constituency that alienates them.
In addition, in terms of climate policy, it is not at all clear whether the earlier exit will bring anything.
In any case, experts reckon that coal could become uneconomical in the early 2030s.
The CO2 price from emissions trading is already around 85 euros per tonne.
In addition, the question will always arise as to whether the two ministers were actually used as an instrument by RWE in the negotiations last autumn.
After all, only a very small group knew about the talks, and according to insiders, it was only found out very late at the technical level.
When asked by SPIEGEL, the Federal Ministry of Economics announced that there were no minutes of the meeting.
How can you not take part in the negotiation of such a historic deal?
There were even transcripts of the negotiations for the sale of the Lausitz lignite to Leag.
A lack of transparency does not exactly strengthen such deals with companies.
The agreement turned out to be a surprise coup and the expert opinions on the exit were prepared at extremely short notice.
A quick shot apparently.
This is at the expense of credibility, especially in the Lützerath case.
According to the operator RWE, the site is to be demolished in order to meet the increased demand for coal in the coming years.
There is now a free ticket for this in the exit law.
DER SPIEGEL already reported on a study by Aurora in December, which at least calls that into question.
Analyzes by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) also say several times - as here in April 2022: "The excavation of other villages because of the lignite deposits underneath is not necessary for the lignite electricity requirement." And the justification for the eviction is not particularly solid in other respects either.
The fate of the village depends on "rough estimates"
It is about the assumed amounts of coal that, according to the operator, are still necessary to supply the adjacent power plants in the next eight years.
According to Aurora's calculations, a maximum of 124 million tons would still have to be excavated in the Garzweiler opencast mine, in the area of which the village is located - even under the scenario of increasing electricity consumption.
The village would be saved if there weren't still a need for lignite processing, which the Ministry of Economics in North Rhine-Westphalia estimates at 55 million tons.
Would then be 179 million tons.
But the coal under Lützerath is only needed from a requirement of 170 million tons - this in turn is also in the report on which Habeck and the NRW state government base themselves.
These figures are the basis of last year's law on the early phase-out of coal.
They come from the report of the Office for Energy Economics and Technical Planning (BET) from September.
If it weren't for the 55 million tons, the whole thing would look completely different.
At least then it should be checked again.
These so-called refining quantities mean, for example, the production of briquettes or the sale of coal dust to industry.
The problem: These 55 million tons are just an estimate - so far, experts have been unable to confirm or deny them.
But the fate of Lützerath depends on this lack of clarity, an eviction that is damn expensive for the taxpayer and an avoidable political escalation.
The Aurora study authors write that they only looked at the power generation and that nothing could be said about the refinement.
BET also concedes that "in the short time available, no detailed industry-specific analyzes to determine future processing volumes" could be made.
But there are several arguments why the 55 million tons are questionable:
The last West German briquette factory in Frechen near Cologne closed in December 2022. The processing of lignite products has so far taken place in this factory.
If it's closing right now, the need can't be that great.
According to a study by the German Institute for Economics (DIW), the need for finishing will decrease over the next few years.
With the closure of the factory in Frechen, that would be 2.5 million tons less per year, and it should also be checked "whether the brown coal export to the central German area for briquette production can be avoided".
In addition, the export of lignite dust abroad could be ended.
According to the DIW, it is mainly used there for cement works that are also operated with hard coal.
This is doubly questionable in terms of climate policy.
In addition, it is doubtful whether the extraction of these processed products can be justified with the »public good« on which mining law is based.
In any case, they won't help with the energy crisis.
In principle, politicians and experts are dependent on such figures from the operator.
But it would be their duty to check them properly.
Because RWE always has the upper hand when it comes to collecting data – especially when there is time pressure.
In a statement, the coal company even admits that the excavation has political reasons: »No pacification: There would be a motivation for further blockades.
So there are additional uncertainties in the further management of the open pit, "says a statement from August.
This is a declaration of war, so the operator has absolutely no interest in sparing the village or talking to the activists.
Police chief shares concerns about global warming
SPIEGEL also asked the NRW Ministry of Economic Affairs again for the climate report.
There they continue to stand by their calculations: "The current situation shows that the profitability of coal and especially lignite-fired power plants is subject to large fluctuations," it says.
In addition, the products from lignite processing are "of great importance for different industrial sectors".
The ministry sticks to its version that there were "independent reports" that Lützerath had to be dredged to ensure the security of the energy supply - "ignoring it would be irresponsible," writes a spokesman.
Habeck's ministry does not want to comment on the figures at all, and has shifted responsibility for the studies to Minister Neubaur.
The escalation in Lützerath is therefore inevitable.
The chief of police, Dirk Weinspach, also said in a letter to the squatters: »I wish the evacuation of Lützerath could have been avoided.
But, as far as I know, it is unfortunately unavoidable.« He shares »their concern about further global warming and about the consequences that will have if the 1.5 degree target agreed under international law is not met. «
Here the chief of police seems to be thinking further than RWE and green politicians.
The topics of the week
Debate on opencast mining in North Rhine-Westphalia: Danger at the edge of the demolition line
The dispute over the excavation of the village of Lützerath is not just about coal mining.
According to RWE, the village has to give way anyway to secure the embankments of the previous opencast mine.
Expert Carsten Drebenstedt on the background.
"Polarstern" expedition to Antarctica: The enigma of the end-time glacier
In West Antarctica, gigantic masses of ice are in danger of collapsing, and sea levels could rise dramatically.
Researchers want to gain insights for our climate future from the traces of glacier movements.
Robert Habeck in Norway: Happy New Year's message from the fjord
Economics Minister Habeck no longer wants to be the bearer of bad news, but wants to be perceived as a powerful designer.
On his first trip of the new year to Norway he has a perfect stage for it.
Climate crisis in the Alps: Can we still ski in 50 years?
In many ski areas there will soon be no more snow, at least not over Christmas.
Because over the course of the century it will even get too warm for snow cannons, explains alpine researcher Erika Hiltbrunner.
Wissing and transport policy: Minister reverse gear
FDP man Volker Wissing must create the traffic turnaround in a short time.
But so far he has done – almost nothing.
Climate activist of the "last generation": What do you live on, Mr. Jeschke?
Henning Jeschke, co-founder of the »Last Generation«, dropped out of college and was a full-time disruptor.
Here he criticizes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the federal government - and explains why he subordinates everything to the fight against the climate crisis.
Global warming: almost half of all glaciers will melt by 2100 – even if the 1.5-degree target is met
Even if the climate targets are met, many glaciers can no longer be saved, researchers predict.
Melting can only be slowed down - and every tenth of a degree saved in global warming counts for this.
Consumption decreased, emissions increased: Germany missed climate targets for 2022 - probably because of coal-fired power plants
Although consumption fell, emissions increased in 2022 - because coal-fired power plants were used more, according to the analysis of a think tank.
In one sector, however, the climate targets were achieved.
Stay Confident.
Yours, Susanne Götze