The trailer of the movie "Everything everywhere at once" (United King)
The overwhelming victory of "everything everywhere at once"
The Oscar ceremony will take place at the beginning of the week, on the night between Sunday and midnight Israel time.
Unless something unexpected happens, we can declare this: it's been a long time since there was an Oscar that was so easy to predict, and it's been a long time since we've seen an overwhelming victory like that of "everything everywhere at once".
If the predictions come true, the film should win at least six Oscars, most of them in the main categories.
Why is this so unusual?
Admittedly, "Nomad Land" two years ago and "Parasites" three years ago also won six Oscars, but their distribution was less impressive.
"Nomad Land" won only one acting category - the leading actress, and "Parasites" did not win any of the actor or actress awards.
"Everything everywhere at once", on the other hand, is a favorite to win the film and directing awards, and this in addition to no less than three acting awards, and we haven't seen such an achievement in years.
Now, let's break down the expected achievements of the film.
Let's start with what's in his pocket, but a sensation ceiling: he will win the best film award, and the statuette for directing will go to its creators, Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, known as "The Daniels".
These are two young filmmakers, who were not known to the general public until this year, but have now become the hottest names in Hollywood.
This year they will overtake their main competitor, Steven Spielberg, who could have been their father and even grandfather, and directed about fifty more films than them.
Another sure win: Ki Hoi Kwan in the supporting actor award.
Ironically, the actor broke out as a child prodigy in the 1980s in Spielberg's "Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom".
Since then he pretty much disappeared, until he made a comeback this year with "everything everywhere at once", and the Academy loves comeback stories.
All the figurines are with him.
From "Everything everywhere at once" (photo: United King)
Now we will move on to the less certain winnings.
Michelle Yeoh, the star of the film, stands as a leading candidate to win in the leading actress category.
Her role is powerful, unique and exciting, and she is an acclaimed actress with an impressive track record, so the statuette is also a kind of life's work.
Besides, giving the award to a craftswoman who specializes in martial arts, among other things, and demonstrates this in "everything everywhere at once" is a "cool" choice that marks the academy as young and not fossilized.
In addition to that, of course it also doesn't hurt to give the statuette to a sixty-year-old actress whose origins are in Malaysia - politically, it's the most correct step.
In light of all this, you can bet with a probability of ninety percent that Yao will be honored with the award.
The only obstacle standing in front of her is Cate Blanchett, a celebrated actress as well, who makes a tour de force in "Tar", but this film has been seen by far fewer people, and Yao seems unstoppable.
The most intriguing battle of "everything everywhere at once" is in the supporting actress category.
The leading candidate here is one of his actresses - Jamie Lee Curtis.
The veteran star has never won the award, and in fact was not even nominated for it.
She is the daughter of Hollywood aristocracy - Tony Curtis and Janet Leigh, who also never received an Oscar.
As in Yao's case, her figurine will also be a kind of life's work.
We're betting on Curtis, but she has two strong competitors - two well-loved actresses in acclaimed films who have almost no chance to shine in other categories.
This is Angela Bassett from "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" and Carrie Condon from "Ghosts of Inshirin".
Each of them can cause one of the first surprises of the ceremony - the supporting actress award is usually one of the first in line.
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The right win at the right time.
From "Everything everywhere at once" (photo: United King)
"Everything everywhere at once" competes against "Ghosts of Inishirin" also in the original screenplay award, in one of the most interesting battles of the evening.
On the one hand, the script of "everywhere everywhere at once" is considered one of its main virtues, because of the creative engagement with parallel worlds and the exciting discussion of immigration, identity and relationships within the family.
On the other hand, the script written by Martin McDonagh for "Ghosts of Inishreen" is also brilliant and witty, and this will be an opportunity to give a consolation prize to an appreciated film that will not receive the statuettes for film or direction.
Bet: "Ghosts of Inishreen" will win, also because McDonagh already won this category a few years ago for "Three Signs", and the Academy likes to award the Oscar to creators who have already won it in the same category (Tarantino, for example, has already received two Oscars in the original screenplay category).
"Everything everywhere at once" is also nominated in the editing category and has a reasonable chance to win it as well, but here the leading candidate and our bet is "Love in the Sky: Maverick".
Explanation: This is one of the most notable hits of the year, and as Spielberg defined it, "the movie that saved Hollywood's ass this year."
He needs to be praised somehow, and the editing award is considered prestigious - perhaps the most prestigious of the "technical" categories.
"Everything Everywhere At Once" also received nominations in both musical categories, but would not win them.
In the original music category, the competition is tough, but the favorite is John Williams, Steven Spielberg's regular partner who also composed his "Fibblemen".
The veteran composer has not won the award since "Schindler's List" thirty years ago, and if he wins, he will become, at the age of 91, the oldest Oscar winner ever (outside of Lifetime Achievement Awards).
This will also be the only prize for the "Fiebelmans" throughout the evening.
And soon - the Oscar.
Michelle Yeoh with the Golden Globe she won earlier this year (Photo: GettyImages, Kevin Mazor)
In the original song category, the almost certain winner is "Naatu Naatu" from the Indian hit "RRR", which is not nominated in the international film category for the simple reason that India did not submit it at all.
Another category in which "everything everywhere at once" will register a rare loss is the costumes - here the favorite is "Elvis".
And if you have come this far, you might want to ask - what is the meaning of the love for "everything in one place"?
First of all, it's a really good movie, and it doesn't hurt.
Second thing, and we already touched on this earlier: it is also a modern and up-to-date film, which corresponds to the renewal ambitions of the academy.
It centers on an Asian lesbian woman, a winning combination in terms of political correctness, and on top of all that, it was also a box office success.
In a year where almost all the films in question crashed, "Everything in One Place" was registered as one of the only candidates whose name means something to the general public in general and the Academy voters in particular.
If you haven't seen it yet, you have a whole weekend to do it.
From "Everything everywhere at once" (photo: United King)
The impressive success of "There is nothing new in the West"
There are some crazy prophets who are convinced that, despite everything, "everything everywhere at once" will not win the best picture award.
According to their prediction, the winner will be "There's Nothing New in the West", the German war film that has already won the British Academy Award and is available on Netflix, the world's most powerful platform, whose promotion never hurts.
As someone who has already failed many times (many times, in fact) in these predictions, I must take these predictions into account, yet I will risk and dismiss them.
In another year, "Nothing New in the West" would probably be the big winner, but this year, "Everything Everywhere at Once" seems unstoppable.
Still, "There is nothing new in the West" will come out as one of the big winners of the evening, with two beautiful awards - it is the sure winner in the international category, and with a very high probability in the photography category as well.
The winner should be his photographer, James Friend - an impressive achievement for a craftsman who until this year was unknown in the industry.
"There is nothing new in the West" is also nominated in other "technical" categories, but not a favorite.
The sound award should go to "Love in the Sky: Maverick", which means that it will also come out with two figurines.
The effects award, for its part, is expected to land in the hands of "Avatar: Through the Water", because after all - the big blockbuster of the year deserves something.
"Babylon", for its part, is expected to receive its only award for production design, and the makeup and hair design award should go to "Elvis".
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Two zero for Germany and Netflix.
From "There's Nothing New in the West" (Photo: Netflix)
Best Actor Award
And if we're talking about "Elvis", this is the opportunity to get the whipped cream on top of the cherry - the most competitive and open category of the evening, partly because "everything everywhere at once" and "there's nothing new in the West" don't work in it.
In the main actor category, there are no less than three candidates with equal chances and strong arguments in favor of each of them.
One candidate: Brendan Frazier for his role in "The Whale".
He already won the Actors Guild Award for this role, it's a comeback story the way Hollywood likes it, and he goes through a physical transformation and physical torment in the film, and that's also liked at the Oscars.
Second nominee: Colin Farrell for his role in "Ghosts of Inishreen".
He's already won a Golden Globe in the comedy category for this role, and he's a beloved figure in an industry that has never won an award and its time has come.
Third candidate: Austin Butler for his role in "Elvis".
He has already won the Golden Globe in the drama category and the British Academy Award for this role, and he is considered the discovery of the year and one of the rising stars in Hollywood, and the Oscars like to be the ones who put the final and official stamp on such titles.
More importantly: Butler plays a musical idol in a biopic, which only in the last few decades brought Oscars to Jamie Foxx for his role as Ray Charles in Ray, to Joaquin Phoenix for his role as Johnny Cash in Walk My Way and Rami Malek for his role as Freddie Mercury In "Bohemian Rhapsody".
In short: everything is open, but if we go by past precedents, the winner is Butler.
Reminder: we bet on "Elvis" in the costume and make-up and hair styling categories as well, this means he will leave the ceremony with three awards.
Did you star in a musical bio?
You have been accepted to the Oscars! (Photo: Tulip Media)
Adapted Screenplay Award
And we almost forgot the adapted screenplay category.
It's usually the strongest and most competitive of the screenplay categories, but this year it's unusually weak.
"There's nothing new in the West" may win here as well, but we'll bet on Sarah Foley's "Talking Women", which will be one of the only female filmmakers to win an award at this ceremony.
And if you're asking what "Talking Women" is: it's the only film among the prominent Oscar nominees this year that wasn't distributed in Israel, wasn't screened at any festival, and isn't available in our home format, but in America it's already on VOD.
For those who are curious, we have attached a trailer:
The feature-length animated film and the feature-length documentary
We will finish with an easy to predict category and a difficult category.
In the long-form animated film category, the results have long been clear: "Guillermo del Toro Presents: Pinocchio" has long been the sure winner.
In the long documentary category, everything is open, and almost any of the candidates can win.
Mainly the things are said about "the fire of love" and "all the beauty and the bloodshed", but the winner will probably be "Navalni", the prominent opponent of Putin's regime.
It is considered the most topical and relevant film right now, for obvious reasons, and there will be people who will vote for it even if they haven't seen it.
The doco winner?
From "Navalni" (Photo: CNN)
Summary:
"Everything everywhere at once" will win five-six films.
"Elvis" will win three, although only one in the "main" category.
"There's Nothing New in the West" and "Love in the Sky: Maverick" will win two awards each.
If we move from movies to studios, this Oscar will be a big win for two bodies.
The big winner will be A24 which started as a small studio of indie films for hipsters, and went from strength to strength until it reached its peak this year with "everything everywhere at once", which will finally jump it several leagues.
Disney, Universal and everyone else can only dream of six Oscars this year.
Netflix will also come out happy in part, with the Oscars for "There's Nothing New in the West" and "Pinocchio" and maybe some win in the short film categories - more small steps in taking over Hollywood.
The Oscar ceremony will be broadcast live and exclusively on yes MOVIES DRAMA on the night between Sunday and Monday.
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Austin Butler
Everything everywhere at once
Inishrin spirits
Elvis
Oscar
Love in the Sky - Maverick
There is nothing new in the West
Cate Blanchett