There are records that would be better not to break.
The 2023-2024 meteorological winter is the warmest on record globally, with February part of a string of nine consecutive monthly records.
The cause is the continuation of greenhouse gas emissions and the El Niño climate phenomenon, according to Copernicus.
The European observatory has listed, in its latest monthly bulletin published Thursday, a new series of shocking figures: with an air temperature of 13.54°C on average, last month registered 1.77°C above an average February over the period 1850-1900.
It is also 0.12°C warmer than the previous record for a month of February, which dates back to 2016.
Over four days, from February 8 to 11, temperatures were even 2°C higher than in the pre-industrial era - which does not, however, mean that the upper limit of the Paris agreement, which expressed on average over several decades, has been achieved.
Over the last 12 months, the world has experienced a temperature 1.56°C higher than the average climate of the 19th century, a new record.
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How to do
February 2024 thus represents the ninth consecutive monthly record broken, underlines Copernicus.
The meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere (December to February) is therefore the warmest in the world, succeeding the three warmest months of autumn and summer.
Remarkable heat was recorded across the world, from North America to Vietnam, Morocco and most of South America.
But Europe stood out.
The Old Continent experienced exceptional heat this winter with temperatures 3.30°C above normal (1991-2020), and with an even more abnormal situation in central and eastern Europe.
The average temperature of the oceans, which cover 70% of the Earth, reached a new absolute record, all months combined, with 21.06°C recorded in February at the surface of the seas (excluding areas near the poles).
This warming directly threatens marine life and can reduce the absorption capacity of our greenhouse gas emissions in the seas, carbon sinks which absorb 90% of excess energy from human activity.
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El Niño and La Niña
The past months have been affected by the natural climatic phenomenon El Niño, synonymous with higher temperatures, which according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reached its peak in December but has yet to result in temperatures above the normal until May on dry land.
The WMO says there is a chance that La Niña - which, unlike El Niño, lowers global temperatures - will develop
"later this year"
after neutral conditions (neither the other) between April and June.
“2024 was on track to be another very hot year, potentially a record year, but the chances of that happening could decrease if we move very quickly towards a La Niña phenomenon
,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the service on Copernicus climate change (C3S).
But, in all cases, these cyclical phenomena add to a long-term trend, which shows no signs of change: warming under the effect of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, linked essentially the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) by humanity.
Unless we manage to
“stabilize”
these concentrations,
“we will inevitably face new world temperature records and their consequences”
, underlines Carlo Buontempo.
Greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 to hope to meet the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris agreement, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. climate change.
These global emissions must also reach a peak by 2025. But this is not yet there: according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global CO2 emissions linked to energy increased by 1.1% in 2023 to reach a record level.