Trailer for the movie "Oppenheimer"/courtesy Tulip Entertainment
Like the Israeli left, the Oscar ceremony is also used to being eulogized.
They didn't say anything about it, but it is still here, and will be held for the 96th time at the beginning of next week - on the night between Sunday and midnight Israel time.
All the explanations about how the Oscars and Hollywood in general are no longer relevant are well-known and well-worn, and this year it has another problem: the ceremony that is happening now, at the beginning of 2024, refers to films released in 2023.
Therefore, he does not take into account "Holit 2", which was released only recently and became the most talked about film of recent times, but will only be counted at next year's ceremony.
Until then, the current Oscar will have to settle for "Oppenheimer" and "Barbie", two of the three biggest blockbusters
of the past year, which, unusually for contemporary blockbusters, received a number of nominations in the main categories.
From a local point of view, we will raise our eyes to "Letter to a Pig", the short animated film by Tal Kantor that may definitely become the first Israeli film to win a statuette.
In addition to this, it is likely that some of those present at the event will comment on what is happening in our region, and will do so on the red carpet or on stage - or both.
Ahead of Hollywood's big night, here are our predictions.
He was applauded.
From "Oppenheimer"/© Universal Studios
The overwhelming victory of "Oppenheimer"
By all accounts, Christopher Nolan's hit is expected to be the big star of the evening.
This also stems from the appreciation towards him;
Also out of gratitude for his box office achievements, which brought to the halls an audience that had already given up on the big screen;
And also as a tribute to its director, one of the most prominent filmmakers of our generation, who has yet to receive an Oscar.
"Oppenheimer" is also the closest thing to consensus nowadays, and crosses ages.
It is likely that he would have won the statuette even if it had come out thirty years ago.
It has advantages over all its competitors.
It is popular, but considered more serious than "Barbie";
Long, but considered more interesting than "The Moonflower Killers";
Virtuoso and thought-provoking, but not as artistic and provocative as "Such Poor People", and certainly more epic than "Maestro" and "A Whole Life", for example.
The only one that could have challenged him is "Zone of Interest", Jonathan Glaser's celebrated and German-speaking Holocaust film that will probably win the International Film Award and in a different situation could have won the Film Award as well, but it seems that "Oppenheimer" has long since caught a gap that is difficult to catch up with.
"Oppenheimer" is also expected to win the director award, and in the two male acting categories - Robert Downey Jr. for the supporting actor and Cillian Murphy in the leading actor category.
For both of them it will be their first prize win.
It will also be the first time since "The Artist" a decade and a half ago that the film and lead actor awards go to the same film, which illustrates how great his achievement is.
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We haven't seen such an achievement in a long time.
From "Oppenheimer"/image processing, © Universal Studios |
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"Oppenheimer" is also a clear favorite to win the awards for cinematography, editing and original music.
This guarantees him at least seven figurines.
In addition to that, he should also win the sound design, although here the "area of interest" has a chance to surprise him.
In any case, eight statuettes are enough to give it a place of honor on the list of films with the most Oscar statuettes ever.
Since "The Riddle Boy from Mumbai" in 2008, no hit has recorded such an achievement, and unlike it, "The Riddle Boy" did not win any award in the acting category.
"Oppenheimer" is also a serious candidate in the adapted screenplay category, and I think it would be funny if it doesn't win it - if the film is this good, doesn't that mean it probably had a successful screenplay basis?
Either way, the favorite here is "American Tale", also because the Academy likes to give the screenplay awards to indie films that are considered witty and kickass, also because it's an acclaimed film that won't win any other award and also because the writer-director Cord Jefferson is a black man, and unless There will hardly be any such winners at the ceremony.
"Barbie" also has a chance in this category, but we'll go with "American action".
her again?
Emma Stone in "Such Poor People"/Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures.
© 2023 20th Century Studios All Rights Reserved
The most exciting battle of all: the main actress
The supporting actress category is one of the biggest bankers of the ceremony.
Davin Joy Randolph from Leftovers for the Holiday is the sure winner here.
The leading actress category, however, provides the tightest competition of the evening.
According to most predictions, there are two stars competing head-to-head: Lily Gladstone from "Killers of the Moonflower" and Emma Stone from "Such Poor People", who previously won for "La Land" and may receive a second Oscar at the age of only 35.
Why will Gladstone win?
Because her winning would make her the first American-born to win in this category, and the Academy would not pass up such a golden opportunity;
Because she is a pulsating actress and because this is probably the only award this film in question, signed by Martin Scorsese, will win.
The latter argument also applies to Stone from "Such Poor People", as well as her enduring popularity and the nature of the role.
She completely devotes herself to her character, who does everything imaginable in the film, and the Academy loves such performances.
Why won't Gladstone win?
Because some people have already really nailed The Moonflower Killers, a three-hour-plus bore that lost momentum as awards season progressed.
Why won't Stone win?
Because she is only 35 years old and has already won the award before, so what's burning?
Pay attention to her.
Sandra Holler in "Anatomy of a Fall" / Cannes Film Festival (courtesy of New Cinema)
And my bet?
Two are many, and a third takes.
I'm betting on a surprise: Sandra Hüller, the German who stars in the French "Anatomy of a Fall".
This hit has gained crazy momentum in recent weeks and rightfully so - it's the best movie of the year.
The wonderful actress also stars this year in "The Area of Interest" and although she is not nominated for it, it raises her profile.
The academy has become more international in recent years, which strengthens the chances of European actresses.
Holler will become the first German actress to win an Oscar since Louise Reiner in the late 1930s.
It would also be one of the most surprising wins in the acting categories since Adrien Brody picked up the Oscar for "The Pianist."
The original script, the international film, the docu and the animated film
To be sure, the French "Anatomy of a Fall" is considered a clear favorite, and again rightfully so, for the original screenplay award.
His momentum seems unstoppable, even against a worthy competitor like "Remaining for the Holiday".
This will be the third time in the last two decades that an "international" film has won this category.
This also happened to the Korean "Parasites" and Almodovar's Spanish "Talk to her".
What do "Anatomy of a Fall" and "Speak to Her" have in common?
At the time, Spain did not send the film as its representative to the international category, so he managed without it.
This also happens with "Anatomy of a Fall".
France banned it, apparently for political reasons - the director Justine Trier, who wrote the script with her partner Arthur Harari, spoke out against the government in her Palme d'Or winning speech at Cannes, and that was her punishment.
Yes, such things happen not only at Miri Regev.
The absence of "Anatomy of a Fall" prevented an incredibly close race in the international film category and left the field to the sure winner, Glazer's "Zone of Interest", which will become the third artistic Holocaust film to win an Oscar in the last decade and a half after the Polish "Ida" and the Hungarian "Son of Saul".
It is a British film, but in this category the language determines, and it deals with Nazis and speaks German.
This will of course be the first win for the United Kingdom in the category.
This has never happened before: a British film wins in the international category.
From "The Area of Interest"/Lev Cinema
It should be noted: Both Harari and Glazer are Jewish, and both have already spoken out against Israel in recent weeks, so don't be surprised if they do so at the Oscars as well.
Expect a sentence like "I am shocked by what is happening in Gaza, and call for an immediate ceasefire".
If the wind falls on them, maybe they will also remember to talk about the abductees.
There is also an international flavor in the feature-length docu-film category and the feature-length animated film category.
In Docu, the clear favorite is the Ukrainian "20 Days in Mariupol" about the brutal Russian invasion of the country.
In animation, the favorite is "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Dimensional", but it is in competition with "The Boy and the Heron" by Hayao Miyazaki.
I'm betting on "The Boy and the Heron".
The animation brand of "Spider-Man" has already won an Oscar and will have more opportunities.
In the case of Miyazaki, this is probably his last film and also a last chance to pick another statuette, after he already won for "The Amazing Journey".
Second Oscar before farewell.
From "The Boy and the Heron"/official website, courtesy of Lev Cinemas
the other categories
Although "Barbie" will not win the Oscar for the film and was excluded from the beginning from the directing category and most of the acting categories, nevertheless it may come out of the evening with three awards.
He will surely win the song award, in which he is nominated with two songs - "I'm Just Ken" and "What Was I Made For" by Billie Eilish and her brother Phineas O'Connell.
The two will probably win, after they already did two years ago for the theme song of "No Time to Die".
This means that already at the age of 22, Billie Eilish will have two Oscars in her wardrobe - an unimaginable achievement.
"Barbie" is also a favorite in the category of costume design and production design, but in both cases it finds "Poor People" in front of it, a film that is very similar to it in many respects.
These categories are hard to predict.
Let's bet that they will be divided between the two.
The hair and make-up design award also has an Israeli representative, "Golda", but the leading candidates here are "Maestro" and "Poor people like that" - we bet on "Maestro".
And finally, an interesting category is the effects.
The favorite, and rightfully so, is "Godzilla Minus One", a Japanese film that was not distributed in Israel, and with an estimated budget of only ten million dollars managed to create more spectacular effects than in any Hollywood film this year.
If it wins as expected, it will be the first non-American film to win the award, which generally goes to blockbusters like "Jurassic Park" and "Lord of the Rings."
Still he will win something.
"Barbie"/Courtesy of Tulip Entertainment
The short animated film
It's a category we wouldn't normally bother to address at length, but this year is the most interesting there is from a local perspective.
One of the candidates in it, and in fact the favorite in it, is "Letter to a pig" by Tal Cantor.
It should be emphasized: there were Israelis who won Oscars in the past, but it was not for Israeli films.
Moshe Mizrahi won the international category for the French "All Life Before Him".
Guy Nativ won an Oscar for the short film "Skin", which was filmed in America, took place in America and spoke English.
"Letter to Pig" is an Israeli film - a joint production with France, like many Israeli films, but Israeli in its essence. The director was born, grew up and lives here, and the film is Hebrew-speaking and takes place in Israel, with Israeli characters. We have never had such a win. We should Also to note that if this happens, there is another meaning: two of the winners this year will be "Holocaust films" - both "Letter to the Pig" and "The Area of Interest", and it is also possible to include "Oppenheimer", which takes place against the background of the Holocaust, which is a main motivation for the Jewish scientists to build the The bomb that will end the war.
Right now, gold for Israel?
From "A Letter to a Pig"/The Hive Studio, Miyu Productions
But wait, will "A Letter to a Pig" really win?
According to many international prognosticators, yes, but let me bet otherwise, if only so as not to be biased.
"A Letter to a Pig" is a complex film, with an ending that is open to interpretation, and I believe that the Academy will go for a more populist choice.
A simple and simplistic film called "War is Over", produced by Sean Lennon based on the music of his parents John and Yoko, and conveys naive pacifist messages in a childish way, which turns out to have buyers even five decades after the song was released.
The film was directed by Dave Mullins, who has rich mileage at Pixar, which makes him connected in the industry, and that will also help garner votes.
I wish Kantor that she doesn't win, because I don't envy her and with the magnifying glass she will examine every word she says after winning.
Incomprehensible.
Billie Eilish/GettyImages
The full forecast
Best Film: "Oppenheimer"
Director: Christopher Nolan ("Oppenheimer")
Lead Actor: Cillian Murphy ("Oppenheimer")
Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. ("Oppenheimer")
Lead Actress: Sandra Holler ("Anatomy of a Fall" )
Supporting Actress: Davin Joy Randolph ("Staying for the Holiday")
International Film: "Zone of Interest" (UK)
Sound: "Zone of Interest"
Original Screenplay: "Anatomy of a Fall"
Adapted Screenplay: "American Story"
Cinematography: "Oppenheimer Editing
:
"Oppenheimer"
Original music: "Oppenheimer"
Original song: "What Was I Made For"
Production design: "Such poor people"
Costume design: "Barbie"
Effects: "Godzilla minus one"
Makeup and hair design: "Maestro"
Film The animated feature: "The Boy and the Heron"
The feature-length documentary: "20 Days in Mariupol"
The animated short: "War is Over"
The feature-length film: "The Amazing Story of Henry Sugar"
The short documentary: "The ABCs of Book Banning"
The Oscar ceremony will be broadcast live and exclusively on yes MOVIES DRAMA on the night between Sunday and Monday and on +STING.
The coverage of the red carpet will start at 22:30 and the ceremony itself at one in the morning.
Note that the ceremony starts earlier than in previous years.
It is expected to end at four in the morning.
The edited and translated version will be broadcast on yes MOVIES DRAMA on Tuesday, 12/3, at 21:00.
More on the same topic:
Oppenheimer - the movie
Such poor people
Barbie
Billie Eilish
Tal Cantor
Oscar