Even if their technologies will be on the road soon, the revolution represented by the so-called 'software defined' vehicles (SDVs) will not arrive with the mass production of these innovative models before 2030, according to a study carried out by chip manufacturer NXP Semiconductors together with Wards Intelligence, which points out that after a period of high expectations and ambitious predictions for software-defined vehicles, the industry is now recalibrating its roadmap.
A change in speed that derives from the admission of problems relating to the vast complexity surrounding this transformation, especially for traditional car manufacturers, which are anchored to practices and values linked to the past.
The survey of global automotive executives finds that almost 60% of respondents believe that it will be beyond 2030 before at least 50% of cars sold each year (and only in mature markets) are of the 'software-defined' generation .
A forecast that changes - bringing the finish line to 2031 - in the responses of those interviewed based in Europe and between suppliers who work directly with manufacturers (79%) and Tier 2 ones who work for direct suppliers (68%).
The view of North American counterparts is even more pessimistic: 47% expect the transition to take place from 2032 onwards.
Overall, a substantial 27% of manufacturers interviewed are not sure of the timing for the production of the Sdv series.
Looking in detail at the various elements that make up a 'software-defined' vehicle, interviewees expressed doubts in 59% of cases about the over-the-air (OTA) update capabilities and automotive software components (60%) predicting in 58% of cases that the completion of the integrated data infrastructure of vehicles will arrive between 2025 and 2030. The percentage (58%) regarding the problem of creating an optimal E/E architecture on a large scale and the creation ( 59%) of an Ethernet backbone across the vehicle fleet (59%).
The vision on the creation of the so-called digital twins (57%), the Cloud DevOps flow, i.e. continuous integration/continuous distribution (50%) and automated software certification (56%) is slightly more optimistic.
These functions are estimated to be completed starting from 2028. In particular, automated software certification stands out as one of the most complex tasks and presents great challenges for all manufacturers.
The survey from NXP Semiconductors and Wards Intelligence shows that 38% of respondents across automakers (and 29% of all categories) expect deployment to be possible only beyond 2031.
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