The drone attack on two oil rigs in Saudi Arabia is not only politically creating new tensions - the global economy is also severely hit by the attacks. After all, Saudi Arabia is the world's most important oil-producing country.
Analysts expect the oil price to skyrocket as early as Monday when markets open at five to ten dollars a barrel (159-liter barrel). How it goes on depends largely on how quickly Saudi Arabia can increase its oil supply.
In a seven-day disruption scenario, Bob McNally expects the analyst firm Rapidian Energy to increase prices by $ 15 to $ 20 a barrel. After 30 days, the price of oil could even surpass the $ 100 mark. That would be a huge price jump, which could plunge the already weakening global economy deeper into crisis. Recently, a barrel of the WTI variety cost around $ 55 at the markets.
Saudi Aramco plant in Bakiak: Five percent of the world's oil supply
The attacks represented a new dimension, said analyst Christyan Malek of the US bank JP Morgan. The market will now price this up and the price will rise to $ 80 to $ 90 a barrel over the next three to six months.
Five percent of the world's oil supply affected
During the attacks on early Saturday morning, fires broke out in the facilities of the Saudi Aramco state company in Bakiak and Churais. The oil production had to be temporarily stopped at both locations. According to Saudi Arabian energy minister, Prince Abdulasis bin Salman, half of the group's total production was affected, estimated at 5.7 million barrels of crude oil per day. According to experts, this corresponds to around five percent of the global supply.
The Saudi Arabian Ministry of Energy said the weekend had a temporary effect, partly compensated by the supply of existing oil reserves in the market.
Whether Saudi Aramco gets the promotion back under control so quickly is questionable. The Reuters reported, citing an insider, it would probably take weeks rather than days, until the promotion run again as usual.
Aramco is supposed to go public
At the Abkaik site, Aramco's largest oil refinery is located. It is located about 60 kilometers southwest of the Saudi Aramco headquarters in the city of Dahran. In Churais, one of the main oilfields of the state-owned company is preparing for its IPO. This was originally planned for 2018, but was postponed due to the decline in crude oil prices on the world market.
The attacks were claimed by the Shiite Houthi rebels from neighboring Yemen, who are supported by Saudi Arbien's archenemy Iran. A statement by Huthi television al-Massirah spoke of "a major operation against refineries in Bakiak and Churais."
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote on Twitter that there was "no evidence that the attacks came from Yemen." Iran must be held accountable for its "aggression." The Washington government, along with its allies, will ensure that global energy supplies are secure.
Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.- Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) September 14, 2019
A spokeswoman for the US Department of Energy said on Sunday that the US was ready to release oil reserves in the event of bottlenecks. This could be counteracted any disruptions of the oil markets. Energy Secretary Rick Perry has instructed his ministry leadership to work with the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris in this regard. According to ministry information, US strategic oil reserves total 630 million barrels.
The IEA sees according to own data first no supply problems. For now, the markets are well supplied with plenty of commercial stocks, the organization said. "We are in contact with the Saudi Arabian authorities as well as the most important producer and consumer nations."