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VW production of an e-car at the Emden plant
Photo: Sina Schuldt / dpa
The German auto industry is not out of the woods yet: according to a study, the shortage of semiconductors is likely to slow down car production until at least 2024.
One reason for this: Electric cars need ten times as many chips as petrol or diesel cars, so that even increasing capacities will not be sufficient to meet all requirements, according to a study by the management consultancy Alix Partners: »Vehicle production will not reach the level before the pandemic began until 2024 at the earliest reach."
For this year, the company expects global sales to fall to 78.9 million cars and light vans - from 80.3 million in 2021. The operating profit of the car manufacturers (Ebitda margin), on the other hand, has risen to an average of a good 12 percent of sales suppliers to almost 11 percent.
Both would have made up for the decline in the corona crisis to some extent.
Because of the increase in raw material costs, suppliers did not benefit to the same extent from the rise in car prices.
They are also under strong financial pressure because of the pricing power of car manufacturers, said industry expert Marcus Kleinfeld.
Soon more than 90 percent e-cars in Germany?
According to the study, raw material prices for combustion engines have doubled since 2020 and those for electric cars have almost tripled.
The cost of batteries is likely to rise again after years of decline.
Lithium-iron phosphate batteries could soon be used more frequently in low- and medium-priced e-cars.
Although they are heavier and offer less range than conventional batteries, they are cheaper and also do not depend on rare earths from unstable regions.
At the moment, cars are scarce and comparatively expensive.
But by 2024 at the latest, the car manufacturers should be able to grant discounts again, said Alix director Fabian Piontek: "The effects of high inflation on consumer behavior are already foreseeable."
In 2035, Europe is expected to be a global leader with purely electric vehicles accounting for 83 percent of all vehicles sold.
In Germany it could be 96 percent.
Globally, Alix expects 50 percent.
However, a charging infrastructure must be created that not only enables homeowners with their own charging station to keep their vehicles operational, warned industry expert Christian Siekmann.
»Even city dwellers without their own parking facilities need reliable charging points.«
beb/dpa
