“More margin!
If the expression is commonly used in economics, it is much less so when talking about energy.
It is however in these terms that Xavier Piechaczyk, the boss of RTE, the manager of the electricity network summarized the situation a few days ago.
This Wednesday morning, he presents his forecast study for the winter of 2022-2023.
If the exercise is repeated every year, it is part of this start of the school year in a “context of unprecedented uncertainty”, as RTE reminds us in its introductory remarks.
Never has the risk of a supply disruption been so great.
The document emphasizes the importance of sobriety and energy savings throughout the winter.
"This year, the period of vigilance begins exceptionally in the fall and now extends over several months", alert the manager's teams.
With the appearance of new consumption peaks.
In addition to the traditional time of returning from work, when all appliances are turned on (heating, light, household appliances) at the same time, between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m., a new peak increases year after year in the morning between 8 a.m. and 1 p.m. hours.
He will be particularly under surveillance this winter.
As a preventive measure, the manager has decided to expand its EcoWatt system, a kind of "smart bison" for electricity consumption, which alerts households, but also businesses and communities upstream so that they can organize and adopt effective actions.
“During periods of tension, the risk of outages can be avoided by reducing consumption by 1 to 5% in the central scenario and by a maximum of 15% in the most extreme scenario”, indicates RTE.
Everything will depend on the weather
How did we get here ?
First cause: the low availability of the nuclear fleet.
29 of the 56 reactors are currently shut down for maintenance, but also for stress corrosion problems (SCC) that have appeared on certain cooling circuits.
A historical situation.
The summer drought also caused a drastic drop in water levels in the reservoirs of our approximately 400 hydroelectric dams.
Not to mention the soaring prices per megawatt hour (MWh) on the wholesale markets, which further complicates the situation.
The specter of a blackout therefore hovers over the network's 105,000 km of high-voltage lines.
Even if “the extreme situations (which would combine all the unfavorable risks) are not the most probable, specifies however the study.
RTE has appropriate and proportionate electrical system backup resources depending on the magnitude of any imbalance.
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The main uncertainties that could at any time change the situation are nevertheless listed.
The weather first.
France is a country described as extremely heat-sensitive, due to excessive use of electric heating, combined with a large number of energy sieves (more than 5 million) in its housing stock.
Result: a single degree less in the country and it is 2,400 megawatts (MW) of additional power that we must mobilize.
That is the equivalent of three nuclear reactors.
The energy situation in neighboring European countries will also have a major impact on the balance between supply and demand, including at national level, due to interconnections with our neighbours.
As such, the supply of gas throughout Europe will be decisive, in particular via the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline from Russia.
France and Germany have already concluded an exchange agreement.
Gas could be sent across the Rhine against electricity imported here.
