The Faculty of Economic Sciences (UBA) warned this Monday that the opinion on the debt swap with ANSeS "
is not an endorsement of anything"
and
warned about the risks of the operation
.
In this way, the house of studies
denied that its opinion implied an approval
of the measure promoted in March by Sergio Massa, who turned to that institution to clear up the questions that arose in the market and the opposition, without going through Congress.
"Given the appearance in various news media indicating that the UBA "approved"
the title exchange operation decided by the Ministry of Economy, some clarifications are in order: the first, basic one,
is that the report does not approve or endorse anything
(nor is it asked him to do it), but rather answers two specific questions that he received from the Minister of Economy," economist Andrés Lopez explained on Twitter.
López is a professor at the Faculty of Economics and as a board member he was the one who proposed the technicians in charge of the opinion, Julián Leone and Daniel Milia, with the consent of the governing body.
Leone has a degree in Economics and is a professor of a subject in charge of the Secretary of Commerce, Matías Tombolini, while Milia is a doctoral candidate in Economics and vice president of the Council of Economic Professionals of Caba.
On March 23, the Government ordered the ANSeS and a hundred organizations to exchange bonds in dollars for a dual bond in pesos (adjusted for inflation and devaluation) until 2036, and the sale of titles in that currency.
But
as a result of opposition complaints
about an alleged attempt to
"empty" the ANSeS Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS),
Massa requested an opinion from the UBA and the National Audit Office (AGN).
The Faculty of Economics is an institution under the control of the UCR of Capital, headed by Emiliano Yacobitti.
Massa asked the current UBA vice-rector and radical deputy to evaluate the swap.
Yacobitti has a very good relationship with Massa.
It is part of Evolución, the space of Martín Lousteau, and was key for the Government to approve the 2023 Budget last year.
His block was the one that gave the quorum and then voted in favor of the rule.
But as a result of the optimistic reading of the opinion that the Ministry of Economy released on Monday,
López took off at the UBA
.
"As the Vice-Chancellor Emiliano Yacobitti pointed out,
it is the obligation of the UBA to respond to queries received
from social actors, naturally including the government.
But it cannot give an
institutional opinion on economic policy decisions and it does not do so in this case either," said López.
He also exposed the
risks of the operation
in the event of a scenario different from that foreseen by the government.
"The response points out some potential risks of the proposed operation and mentions scenarios in which the calculation of the requested equity impacts
could be less favorable
than those foreseen in the question from the Minister of Economy," he said.
In his consultation, Massa limited himself to finding out if the exchange with the Treasury of bonds under foreign law (global) and national law (Bonars)
supposes a patrimonial loss for state agencies,
without taking into account the impact of the subsequent sale of titles. for the Treasury.
Therefore, the UBA warns that
"it should not be considered in any way as a judgment of economic policy or an analysis of the full
and potential impact of the valuation itself developed."
With these caveats,
the report maintains that the swap would have a "neutral effect" for the public sector,
including ANSeS.
Regarding the Bonares, it can be deduced that of each nominal value of the Dual 2036 Bond delivered to the organizations, they will obtain a 45.9% appreciation.
"The accounting gain reflected in this exercise is verified by virtue of the change in the form of registration of the exchanged public titles," the opinion states.
Therefore, it concludes that
the sale of Bonares in exchange for duals "does not suppose, at the initial moment, a loss"
in the value of the portfolio of the organizations.
But it warns
that "the effect related to the increase in public debt denominated in foreign currency in the hands of the private sector must be considered, which would result as part of the operation under analysis of the eventual sale of public securities in the market at prices well below of the pair".
And he adds that
"the counterpart is the validation of high returns in foreign currency"
, which suggests a higher level of indebtedness on the part of the public sector.
Developing
NS
look also
The UBA gave the go-ahead to the ANSeS debt swap: what the opinion says
