Against the background of increasing attacks attributed to the Syrian Air Force in recent times, the Iranians are facing greater difficulties than before in the process of establishing themselves in Syria, and are taking various tactical steps in order to deal with Israeli activity.
Among other things, Iran is trying to bring its assets in Syria closer to Russian bases in order to make it difficult for the Israeli Air Force, in light of the fact that the IDF is very careful about harming Russian soldiers and assets.
Currently, in November, the number of IDF attacks in Syria is greater than in previous years. A total of hundreds of Israeli armaments have been dropped in Syria in the past year. In Syria, as well as preventing the entry of weapons into the country and their transfer to the Iranian militias there - and to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In light of the increase in the volume of Israeli activity in Syria in the past year, and due to the fact that both Assad and the Russians are interested in reducing the Islamic Republic's presence in Syria, Israel recognizes significant damage to the Iranian establishment there.
The fact that Assad is no longer interested in Iran's extensive presence in Syria stems in part from his desire to return to a pre-Syrian civil war situation in which his sovereignty was not undermined.
Already today he controls most of the territories in which he ruled before the war, and the Iranian presence in his country is not as desirable to him as in the past.
Just yesterday, it was reported that the Syrian president had acted to oust a senior Iranian commander in Syria, who according to a "know-it-all source" admitted the presence of Iranian operatives and weapons in forbidden areas (see article below).
Assad's interest
In light of all this, the Iranians, as mentioned, are rethinking their activities in Syria, and are taking a variety of tactical actions to make it difficult for Israel to harm them.
Among other things, they are trying to bring some of their activities closer to the Russian bases, although apparently not to a very large extent.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Photo: AP
Iranian action is called for in light of the fact that the IDF maintains security for Russian forces, especially after the acute crisis that occurred between the countries about three years ago, when the Syrian air defense system shot down a Russian plane with 15 Russian military personnel after an Israeli attack on Syria. The air was already landing in the country when the Russian plane was shot down by the Syrians, Moscow imposed the responsibility on Israel, and a crisis arose between the countries.
Senior Israeli officials, including the commander of the Israeli Air Force, visited Moscow in an attempt to present the Israeli investigations to the Russians, but even though the Russians apparently understood the truth in private, at least outwardly the rhetoric towards Jerusalem was sharp.
Beware of the Russians
It took Israel a while to rebuild relations with Moscow, and since that incident Israel has been even more careful about the security of Russian forces in Syria, and does everything in its power not to let any hair fall from the head of a Russian soldier.
The parties also slightly changed the "hotline" procedure between the countries, in which Israel notifies Russia of its attacks in Syria, usually in real time.
Against this background, one can also understand the meeting between Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Russian President Vladimir Putin a few weeks ago in Sochi.
Currently, as long as there is no harm to Russian interests and assets, Israeli activity against Iranian targets in Syria does not bother the Russians, and at this point, as we have seen in seven attacks attributed to Israel in Syria in less than three weeks, thanks to precision and smart and sophisticated actions, Israel manages to maintain freedom of action Its air in Syria, while strictly maintaining Russian security.
The Israeli frustration
The increase in the number of Israeli attacks in Syria may also be due to the recent increase in Iranian activity in the region, but it is likely that there is also a connection to Israel's frustration with Iran's progress in its nuclear program.
It is not inconceivable that the reasons for this are also considerations of more favorable weather for attacks before the onset of winter.
