By Evan Bush -
NBC News
US greenhouse gas emissions rose by about 1.3% in 2022, rebounding for the second year in a row following pandemic disruptions in high-emitting sectors such as shipping and travel.
This emerges from a preliminary analysis by the Rhodium Group, a research company that annually tracks emissions and US progress toward its climate goals.
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Emissions fell 10.6% in 2020, as the United States had to deal with the consequences of the pandemic.
As the economy picked up in 2021, so did US greenhouse gases, which saw an increase of 6.5%.
Before the pandemic, emissions were on a slightly downward trajectory.
The new analysis suggests that emissions have returned to that trend line despite several volatile years.
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“Greenhouse gas emissions have yet to return to 2019 levels. Potentially, they will never return to that level.
Time will tell,” said Ben King, co-author of the report and associate director of Energy and Climate at Rhodium Group.
“We are still on the relegation trajectory.
The challenge is that we need big descents”, he added.
Rhodium's analysis suggests that the US is not on track to meet its 2025 and 2030 climate goals. Inflation - have yet to take effect.
Even then, the United States is expected to miss its targets.
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“If we stopped today and didn't make policy adjustments and just relied on the Inflation Reduction Act, we wouldn't get it,” said King, who leads Rhodium's federal policy research.
"Additional political action will be absolutely necessary to achieve those goals."
The US aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2030 from 2005 levels. Rhodium's analysis suggests the US has taken steps that will reduce emissions by 32-42% % by 2030, according to King.
The Phillips 66 Los Angeles Refinery plant in Wilmington, Calif., on Nov. 28, 2022. Mario Tama/Getty Images
Some notable emissions trends unfolded in the past year.
For the first time, renewables surpassed coal in electricity generation.
Wind, solar, hydro and other renewables accounted for about 22% of total electric power, while coal dropped to 20%.
But the benefits of cleaner energy sources were offset by rising emissions from buildings, which rose about 6% last year, largely due to the heating needs of homes during a relatively cold winter. .
Emissions from air transport increased and returned to levels close to those of 2019.
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Rhodium's analysis for 2022 is preliminary.
The independent research group collects real-time data on energy markets and transportation fuels to estimate annual emissions.
The Environmental Protection Agency publishes official, detailed greenhouse gas inventories about 15 months after the end of the year.
Rhodium analysis is typically accurate to a few fractions of a percentage point.
