Not all that glitters is gold: today's trends and trends may be forgotten tomorrow. (Photo: Photo Processing, Deposit Photos)
In recent times, the measure of excitement about the AI applications that attack us all reaches a boiling point.
If you belong to the digital scene, you probably haven't had a chance to browse the feed in the last few weeks without encountering some posts with images created in the various image engines and some posts talking about Chat GPT.
Clearly something exciting is going on here.
Along with the excitement, we are also overwhelmed by concerns about the impact of technology on our near future and the job market.
As someone who has lived this reality for two decades and is examining it, I wanted to offer you an objective point of view, which will allow you to wear the right glasses to examine this or any other trend
About my point of view
For about 15 years I have been involved in the training of professionals in the worlds of user experience.
As someone who leads students into the industry, I have a professional responsibility to train them not only to know what is needed today, but to prepare them for what the market will demand of them two years from the day their training ends.
From this point of view, I am required to regularly check every trend, technological awakening and buzzword that comes to the surface, and decide whether to add it to the study materials or skip it.
I know that some of these technological developments will have a significant impact on the day-to-day life of all of us, while the greater part will disappear with time, sooner or later.
To meet this challenge, I characterize the trend and examine its nature using the model of Gartner and others.
The hype graph according to Gartner. (Photo: photo processing, Tal Florentin)
The constant model of the hype
It turns out that every hype has a fixed behavior graph, as Gartner's model shows in an excellent way:
it starts with a technological trigger
- the identification of a new capability that is being explored.
At this point none of you know anything about that ability.
For example - did you know that Machine learning algorithms (machine learning, which is the basis of AI) were born in 1943?
When did you hear this term for the first time?
The next stage is the awakening and the excessive noise.
This is when the hype reaches its peak.
The peak varies from product to product, but since we are always looking for the next thing to talk about, there are some that grab us really hard (without judging whether rightly or wrongly).
It is important to note that there is no constant correlation between how high the hype reaches and the result later in the timeline.
The third stage is disillusionment.
This is the stage where the technological ability meets the reality of all of us over time.
This is the moment when a gap is revealed between the promise, the dream and the hype and its application in reality and its integration in a practical way in our lives.
The fourth stage is when the implementers of the technology make adjustments
to it, to make it more accurate to reality.
When this process ends - we reach the fifth and most important stage of all:
the last stage is the establishment of the technology in the reality of all of us.
The establishment of the technology in reality is always significantly lower than the feeling of the gospel that attacked us in the second stage.
How significant is the integration of the ability in our lives?
it changes.
Sometimes it is completely negligible, sometimes the product simply dies and sometimes the combination becomes a significant part of our lives.
The technological application at the end of the graph is also the basis for another future development, which will bring its own hype.
All the parameters vary from one hype to another - how long it takes for the hype to wake up, how far it will really go and whether it will survive or not, but the general shape of the graph always looks similar.
In one of the wonderful scenes in Corning's promotional video, which tried to show what our lives will look like in a decade, Jennifer interacts with the digital screen on the store's window in the mall, which offers her personalized items.
The video was released in 2011 and is watching our lives in 2021, but two years later, there is no hint of digital screens appearing on the storefront in the near future.
Let's take Google Glass for example
The promising glasses launched by Google in 2013 threatened to change the lives of all of us.
The technology - the ability to display data on the reflector and allow us to process information while moving.
The peak of the hype - a lively discussion about the future of interpersonal relationships - how would a date look like, if during the date one of the partners examines the other party's history in the mirror.
What happened next?
In 2015 Google killed the project.
In 2017, Google returned to the project in the Enterprise edition - that is, for professional applications only (brain analyzers or something...).
Along with the closure of the project - it inspired other companies to create dedicated glasses for cyclists and more, and in 2022 Google invested a billion dollars in the development of AR glasses.
The Bottom Line?
The dating world has not been affected even one millimeter, and ten years have passed.
Usually, the apparent end of the story is much less dramatic than the fear and promise at the beginning.
Want a recent example?
Just a few weeks ago, Myheritage created a campaign that allows us to create pictures of ourselves according to different periods in history.
Within a few days the network was filled with the faces of everyone from the time of ancient Egypt, the Roman Empire or World War II.
What happened since then?
We moved on to chat about ChatGPT.
The forgotten trends behind
To establish my point of view, I would like to share with you the list of keywords that I have come across over the last decade plus.
Each of these topics was the talk of the day at one time or another, or the main topic at the digital and UX conferences of that time, and most of them you haven't heard about in a very long time.
I did not specify the chronological order.
You can find them in the table in the attached image.
The table of "noises" I have encountered in the last two decades.
I'm sure I missed a lot more along the way. (Photo: screenshot, Tal Florentin)
The bottom line
To the leaders of public opinion, I call on this opportunity to behave responsibly with messages such as "in 4 years the job market will look different", "they will no longer need developers", "they will no longer need designers", etc.
Most of the people around you do not know how to deal with these statements and they may make decisions that will harm them and all of us.
And for everyone else - I suggest breathing, taking things in the right proportions and letting time take its course.
Remove the pressure gauge and the threat that accompanies it and enjoy the technological evolution we are all experiencing.
The future always opens up more opportunities and never narrows them down, it just takes longer to arrive than it feels.
Tal Florentin is the CEO of Summurai, a user experience expert and the author of the book "User Experience".
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