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Weisweiler lignite power station near Eschweiler: The most climate-damaging production of energy is far from over.
Photo: Jochen Tack / imago images
Since the first shutdown in March there has been hope that the Corona year could become a turning point in global climate protection.
For weeks there were hardly any planes in the sky, fewer cars drove and the shopping malls were also swept empty.
But current reports suggest that this effect will fizzle out - because states and governments have not learned anything about the climate.
The so-called corona dent in CO2 emissions is nothing more than an anecdote in climate history.
That is the message of the Production Gap Report published today.
The combustion of coal, oil and gas has decreased by seven percent this year.
But this is not a trend reversal, according to the report, which is published by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the Stockholm Environment Institute, among others.
It deals with the global production of climate-damaging fuels such as coal, oil and gas.
"We have a phony coexistence of coal, oil, wind and sun."
Ottmar Edenhofer, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Due to the pandemic and numerous lockdowns in the countries, the production of coal-fired electricity has decreased by eight percent and oil production by seven percent, while the figure for gas is three percent.
The mining and burning of fossil resources - for example to produce steel or to generate electricity and heat - is tending to increase - despite the growth of renewable energies, the authors warn: If you add up the plans of governments, the production of fossil fuels could be increased even increase by two percent in the next ten years.
However, in order to achieve the 1.5 degree target envisaged in the world climate agreement, the production of climate-intensive fuels would have to decrease by six percent annually.
The insignificant corona kink
The economic stimulus packages that climate activists had hoped for have so far not brought about a turnaround: The G20 countries have supported fossil energies with the Corona aid packages with 233 billion US dollars - renewable energies and energy efficiency measures, however, only with 146 billion.
"The triumphant advance of renewable energies has been talked about for years, but in reality we have a mendacious coexistence of coal, oil, wind and sun," explains climate economist Ottmar Edenhofer and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to SPIEGEL.
In some Asian countries, coal-fired power plants that have long been written off have even been revived by the economic stimulus packages.
"If all the planned and built coal-fired power plants remain in operation for the next few decades, we can forget the climate goals of the Paris Climate Agreement," says Edenhofer.
In 2015, the countries agreed in the World Climate Agreement to drastically reduce their emissions - and thus the burning of fossil resources.
“But we see that emissions rise again after every crisis,” criticizes the economist.
The world could land at 2.1 degrees in 2100 - if everyone tries hard
But there is a ray of hope: more and more countries are announcing ambitious climate targets.
A few months ago, for example, China promised to become climate neutral by 2060, i.e. no more net emissions.
A total of 127 countries, which emit around two thirds of global emissions, have announced such net zero targets.
With this they promise to drastically reduce their emissions in the next 30 to 40 years and to offset the remaining CO2 emissions with climate projects.
"The big players China and the USA are back in the boat - that gives hope"
Niklas Höhne, New Climate Institute
If these long-term goals are really met, the world could barely miss the worst climate scenarios, have calculated climate experts from the think tanks Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute.
According to their evaluation, the global climate then warms up to "only" 2.1 degrees on average.
This would enable the countries to at least approximately meet the Paris climate target of staying below two degrees warming.
"In the past few months there have been very positive signs in climate policy," says Niklas Höhne from the New Climate Institute in an interview with SPIEGEL.
"The big players such as China and the USA are back on board and have for the first time committed not to use fossil fuels in the long term." China's announcement alone - if it is then complied with - could be 0.2 to 0.3 Degrees, write the analysts around Niklas Höhne.
However, there is a huge discrepancy between these promises and the short-term climate targets, up to around 2030. They are likely to be largely kept, but according to climate experts such as Höhne, they are completely inadequate.
The analysis by Climate Action Tracker therefore expects that at the current pace in terms of climate protection, the world could be almost three degrees more at the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times.
In 2020 already over one degree warming
The data published today by the World Weather Organization (WMO) on the state of the climate make it clear where the unchecked emission of CO2 emissions leads: 2020 was also one of the three warmest years since temperature records began.
From January to October the global average temperature was 1.11 to 1.23 degrees above the average for the years 1850 to 1900. This is particularly remarkable because the La Niña weather phenomenon, which occurs every few years, actually cools the temperature.
The ambitious 1.5-degree limit of maximum warming, which was drawn up in the Paris climate treaty, has now almost been reached.
There it says that the states should keep the global average temperature below two degrees compared to the pre-industrial level - but also make efforts to limit the warming to 1.5 degrees if possible.
In view of the rapid approach to this mark, there are more and more doubts as to whether the 1.5-degree target of the Paris World Climate Agreement is still realistic at all.
The World Weather Organization (WMO) even warned that the global average temperature could rise to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels in one of the next few years.
Dispute over the 1.5 degree dogma
"Technically, the 1.5 degree target can still be achieved," believes climate expert Niklas Höhne.
There are promising alternatives to fossil fuels in almost all areas, but more research is needed in agriculture and air traffic.
"In order to still achieve the goal, not only coal and oil, but also gas, as a so-called bridge technology, have to be abandoned," says Niklas Höhne.
However, the USA is currently becoming one of the largest gas producing countries and the EU is also building new pipelines and liquid gas terminals.
The climate problem is therefore a political one, believes Ottmar Edenhofer: "Only with a strong CO2 price can this parallel universe of climate-damaging fuels and renewable energies be resolved."
He is optimistic that emissions trading will gain momentum, at least in the EU, and that CO₂ emissions will always be expensive.
However, there are still real brakes who don't even think about turning away from CO2-intensive energy generation.
Their gross domestic product still depends on coal, oil and gas.
Saudi Arabia, Russia and Australia have extremely weak climate plans and are making no move to stop the promotion of fuels.
Setting goals that are as distant as possible and not risking any change in the current legislature: Climate policy has been functioning according to this pattern for around 30 years, says Edenhofer.
Thanks to these Sunday speeches on climate protection, however, trust in governments is not exactly increasing.
"The decisive factor is not whether we commit ourselves to 1.5 or 1.7 degrees, but whether countries like the EU are now finally moving ahead and actually complying with their climate targets through long-term binding CO₂ prices."
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