The flagship index of the Paris Stock Exchange, the CAC 40, closed yesterday up 0.47% at 6,131.34 points, largely exceeding its pre-crisis peak to approach its 2007 record (6,168.15 points).
Since the start of 2021, the Parisian market has been showing, with an increase of 10.45%, one of the best world stock market performances, ahead of the Dow Jones in the United States or the S&P 500.
A situation that may appear a little paradoxical at a time when in France, the vaccination campaign is slow to unfold while the third wave has just resulted in the closure of nearly 150,000 shops and the restrictions do not encourage people to consume but rather to save.
So much so that the government has just revised downwards its growth forecast for 2021. But with a GDP rebound of 5.8% in 2021, France should certainly do a little worse than the world economy but better than the euro zone (+ 4.4%).
An influx of cash
From there to saying that investors prefer to ignore the current situation by resolutely turning to the exit of the tunnel, there is only one step.
It must be said that the conjunction of the planets is rather favorable.
With the crisis and the intervention of central banks to support the economies, there is an influx of liquidity and nice moves to play for investors.
An old stock market principle says that it is always better to buy "at the sound of the gun".
If companies have largely benefited from the crisis since February 2020 such as ArcelorMittal (+ 59%), Schneider Electric (+ 36%), sectors such as aeronautics, energy, commerce, banks have been largely weighed down. .
Société Générale lost 28%, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield nearly 45% ... And since February 2020, half of the companies that make up the CAC 40 index are still down over a little over a year.
Recovery plan in the United States
Beyond that, the announcement of the 2 trillion stimulus plan in the United States still opens up prospects for recovery in the country while China is already running at high speed.
For the United States, growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are respectively 6.4% (+ 1.3 point) and 3.5% (+ 1 point).
Indicators, activity in services rebounded more strongly than expected in China in March after a slump the previous month.
So many elements that also restore morale to investors.
A lasting situation?
The question now is to know how long will the financial centers benefit from this craze?
According to analysts, a significant part of the expected economic rebound is already built into prices.
The valuations of CAC companies no longer really have any real upside, except in certain sectors such as aeronautics.
Especially since many uncertainties about the pandemic still weigh.
After having been placed under a cover, the return of growth is a “normal” technical rebound.
But the transition period which is announced when the aid is disconnected should be particularly delicate.
It is therefore at that moment that we can make a real inventory with risks of bankruptcy, social plans ... The harder could then be the fall.
