The US president is not directly elected.
This is why surveys are often difficult to evaluate.
We provide an overview of the developments before the 2020 US election.
On November
3rd,
the Americans can elect their new president.
Before the 2020 presidential election,
forecasts
will be made based on
surveys
.
In the
2020 US election
, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are direct competitors.
With our free US election newsletter you are always well informed.
Update November 2, 9:35
: The so-called
swing states
* be because
decide the election
,
received
particularly high attention
in the
polls
- and
according to
the
New York Times
, Trump challenger
Joe Biden can
look forward to the
day before the
2020 US election
: in a survey by the newspaper and the
Siena College
in the following US states,
he receives
more approval than that Incumbent *: Arizona *, Florida *, Pennsylvania * and Wisconsin *.
The
New York Times
writes
about this result, for which from October 26th to 31st, eligible voters who had not participated in the US election 2016 were interviewed.
+
US President Donald Trump
© Brendan Smialowski / AFP
Update from November 1, 9:20 p.m.: A
look into the crystal ball is appealing: Who
will win the 2020 US election
, incumbent
Donald Trump
or challenger
Joe Biden
?
The latest
nationwide polls
continue to speak for Biden: In a survey published on Saturday on behalf of
NBC
and the
Wall Street Journal,
the Democrat is a
whopping ten percentage points ahead of Trump.
But the choice of fate is not decided by a national majority vote - but in the
states
.
And here the portal
realclearpolitics
, which specializes in the compilation of survey data,
still
sees
several open questions.
Close races are
expected
in
Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina
, among others
.
The website names a total of ten states in which the forecasts for the US election show no clear trend.
197 of the 270 electors
are
chosen
here.
Meanwhile, the US media is raging over the numbers.
The hard-right
Trump supporter Newt Gingrich
predicted
a "repetition of history"
for
Fox News
on the weekend
- in 2016, Trump's election victory
caught
the
opinion
polls off guard.
Although the thesis sounded surprisingly cautious: “We cannot assume that history will repeat itself.
Even if I expect her to do so, ”Gingrich explained in his post.
The assessment of the commentator Maria Cardona for the political website The Hill is different.
In 2016 Trump won surprisingly
because he was able to "channel" the approval of voters who felt marginalized, she judged.
In the case of the
“Corona election” 2020
, the situation shortly before the polls are going to be different: “It seems that he is now the candidate who is blind to the suffering that so many Americans attribute to his breach of duty.”
Trump himself was confident of victory on Sunday with his interpretation of the forecasts.
"Our numbers are looking very good everywhere," he wrote on
.
“Sleepy Joe is already starting to withdraw from certain states.
The radical left is going under! "
Our numbers are looking VERY good all over.
Sleepy Joe is already beginning to pull out of certain states.
The Radical Left is going down!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2020
Surveys on the duel Trump against Biden: Close race in several swing states
Update from October 31, 12:07 p.m.:
Only three days until November 3 - then the
2020 US election
.
The polls of the two presidential candidates
Donald Trump
(Republican) and
Joe Biden
(Democrats) are therefore getting more and more exciting.
A non-partisan website that
displays
survey results is
270toWin
.
The name is derived from the number of
electors
a candidate needs at least to win the election:
270
.
In the current forecast for the 2020 US election, according to these calculations, Democrat Biden leads with 290 voters.
But keep in mind that not all
US states
that send voters are equally safe.
In some states, things are getting tight, like
Minnesota
*.
270toWin
currently
attributes their ten electorates to
Biden, but
things can turn
out very differently on election day.
Biden has a
total of
183 voters,
Trump
77 voters.
It is still very much in danger in the states of Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina *, Georgia and Florida *.
According to the
polls of
the last few days in the individual US states, Biden is currently leading in 32 states, Trump in 21. There is currently a draw in Ohio.
Overall, the polls are about more than the usual 50 states, as there are still some individual districts.
It is important to keep in mind that the individual states
send
a different number of
voters
.
More than
85 million citizens
voted for the US election before the official election date.
A record.
2020 US election: predictions show that the swing states will continue to run for the US presidency
Update from October 30, 2:55 p.m.:
The decisive
US states
for the
2020 US election
are the so-called
swing states
, highly competitive regions that do not go straight to the Republicans or Democrats from the outset.
The
New York Times
sees 15 states in which
Donald Trump
and
Joe Biden
could be
close
.
Who is currently leading where according to the forecasts?
For example,
according to the data
analysts at FiveThirtyEight
, it's in
Iowa
very close.
In the state with predominantly small communities with village or small town character, the Democrats dominated for many years, but in 2016 Trump won.
Only in October did Biden manage to briefly gain the upper hand, according to surveys.
Texas
too
is a swing state in this election, which the Republicans will find difficult to cope with.
Historically, now rapidly growing Texas has been a safe bet for the party.
But the demographics are changing.
Trump is currently slightly ahead in the polls.
In
Ohio
Trump lost around 1.5 percentage points in the past few days.
Since the spring, the two presidential candidates have been taking turns when it comes to leadership.
While in
Georgia
in August and September
Trump was still ahead, was able to overtake Biden in October.
Nationwide
, Biden is still clearly ahead, currently with just under nine percentage points.
Polls for the 2020 US election show: “Millennials” could play a key role
Update of 29 October, 9:40:
According to the latest figures from the "US Elections Project" the political scientist Michael McDonald of the University of Florida have already more than 76 million Americans their
vote
by
absentee ballot
( "Early Voting") for the
presidential election in 2020
given.
For comparison: four years ago, a total of 137 million people
voted
.
This corresponds to more than half the
votes
received by the
election
were issued in the year 2016th
#earlyvote day-end update 10/28
At least 76 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳https: //t.co/s8K2xFDeSA pic.twitter.com/ZhbDTpkw7B
- Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 29, 2020
The
"swing states"
, ie the states in which a head-to-head race between
Donald Trump
and challenger
Joe Biden is
announced, will
remain exciting until the end
.
The so-called
“Millennials”
- born between 1981 and 1998 - could play
a key role this year
.
With around 88 million, they are a voter group with huge potential.
63 percent of 18-29 year olds told the Harvard Public Opinion Project that they would "definitely vote".
In the
election
four years ago, this number was around 50 percent.
And
Joe Biden in
particular
seems to be on better terms with young Americans.
First-time and young voters tend to be more challengers than current
President
Donald Trump
.
"The young people realize that their voice counts," said politics professor Michale Hanmer from
tagesschau.de
as saying.
According to the professor at the University of Maryland,
the
corona crisis in
particular is
sensitizing millennials to pay
more attention to
the
US election
.
Four years ago, Hillary Clinton lost the
election
because she could not mobilize enough young voters.
How important
millennials could become
in this
election
is shown by the fact that, according to current forecasts by the US political site “RealClearPolitics”,
Trump
could have overtaken
his rival
Biden
in Ohio and Florida.
Here you will find all the information about when a result of the US election can be expected.
On election night, many TV stations in Germany also broadcast the US election.
US election 2020: will Trump trick postal voting?
"Must have a final result on November 3rd"
Update from October 28, 9:19 a.m.: Just under
a week before the
election of
the
President
in the
USA
,
Donald Trump
again
shoots
against the
postal vote
via Twitter
.
According to the current president, the final result should be on November 3rd.
There are “big problems and discrepancies” with postal voting.
He goes on to write: “(We) have to have a final result on November 3rd.” This increases the number of signs that Donald Trump will be confirmed as the new president on November 3rd.
Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA.
Must have final total on November 3rd.
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2020
Due to the
corona pandemic
this year, it is expected that more Americans will vote by postal vote than ever before.
According to surveys, more democratic voters should make use of this option.
According to this, a scenario is possible in which
Donald Trump
himself could be ahead on election day until all slips of the
postal vote are
counted.
US election 2020: Trump and Biden ensure high voter turnout in the US
Update from October 27, 10:28 p.m.:
A week before
the
US
presidential election
, more than
69 million Americans
have already
cast their votes.
That corresponds to more than half of all the votes that were cast in the election four years ago, according to data from the
US Elections Project
by political scientist Michael McDonald of the University of Florida
on Tuesday
.
According to the FEC election commission, around
137 million Americans
voted in
2016
.
Because of the
coronavirus pandemic
, it is expected that more Americans than usual will make use of the opportunity to vote in person or by
postal
vote before the actual election day
.
According to the project's data, significantly more registered
Democrats
than
Republicans appear
to have cast their votes early.
Registering with a party does not necessarily say anything about voting behavior.
US election 2020: Trump and Biden with new campaign spots before the decisive phase
Update from October 27, 7:24 p.m.:
Joe Biden
and
Donald Trump
want to
score points
with very different campaign
spots
in the last days before the
US presidential election
.
The Biden team presented a series of commercials on Tuesday in which the challenger, among other things, conjured up the unity of the deeply divided country and
affirmed
his support for the
"Black Lives Matter"
movement.
He also turned to the voters and called on them to end the "dark, angry politics" of recent years under President Trump.
In
contrast,
President Trump's
election campaign team
published a new spot accusing Biden of “lighting up the flames” in “burning cities” in the United States.
The advertising alludes to isolated outbreaks of violence in the wake of the protests against
racism
and
police violence
in recent months.
Just a week before the
November 3rd
US election
, Biden has
a clear advantage over
Trump in
terms of
campaign donations
and the associated
advertising budget
.
According to observers, he spends significantly more money on TV advertising in the contested states than the incumbent.
Polls on the US election: decision will be made in swing states
First report from October 27, 2020:
Munich / Washington, DC - One week before the
2020 US election
on November 3, the
survey tools
on social networks are slowly getting hot.
What expressiveness can be attributed to this is controversial.
Depending on the circles in which the questioner moves, the results are all different.
The 45th President of the United States,
Donald Trump (Republican)
, has collected a large number of polls on his Twitter page over the past few weeks.
The striking thing about them is the clear lead that Donald Trump has over competitor
Joe Biden
in most cases
.
If you take a look
around
the
Democratic
camp instead
, the picture looks different again.
Here Joe Biden usually leads Donald Trump.
This assessment is more in line with the official surveys carried out by universities, for example.
US election 2020: Trump wants the polls to speak for themselves - and gets a direct counterattack
A user on Twitter pointed out to
Donald Trump
that it was not really meaningful to
pick out
a
suitable survey
.
After all, you could then choose one of the polls in which
Joe Biden is
way ahead of Trump.
Not to say you are wrong, but picking 1 recent poll out of 20+ polls might be selection bias.
We could also pick Biden +12 in the USC poll but that would be just as wrong as picking one poll with a favorable result.
Everyone should vote.
And let all the votes be counted.
pic.twitter.com/whTDva8DPx
- Bob McNab (@mceconomist) October 27, 2020
2020 US presidential election - will Americans vote for Biden or for Trump?
The
USC Dornsife department of
the
University of Southern California (USC)
examines and tracks the opinions of 6,000 Americans about the
2020 presidential election
in the
USA
and how they will change over time.
The numbers for a day are based on the assessments of the last fourteen days.
The
USC Dornsife
poll
shows a strong tendency towards a
majority
for
Joe Biden
.
He has been between nine and twelve percent ahead of Donald Trump since the end of August.
The last five assemblies follow (as of October 27, 2020, 2:41 p.m.):
Day | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | head Start |
---|---|---|---|
10/26/2020 | 42.5 | 53.28 | +10.78 |
October 19, 2020 | 41.87 | 53.51 | +11.64 |
10/12/2020 | 41.29 | 53.97 | +12.68 |
05/10/2020 | 42.25 | 52.8 | +10.55 |
09/28/2020 | 42.18 | 51.57 | +9.39 |
Biden before Trump?
Surveys show a clear picture - but how meaningful is it?
Due to the
electoral system in the USA
, however, the individual votes are not relevant for winning the election.
The
Americans
choose so-called election People / electors, not the president directly.
To win the
presidential
election, a candidate must win a majority of the electorate.
The technology company Morning Consult conducts over 4,000
surveys
with potential voters
every day
and has achieved the following
results
:
At the
national level
, Biden (52%) leads with nine percent ahead of Trump (43%).
In the
“unsafe” states
, Biden leads in Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - while Trump only got a lead in South Carolina.
The following are still unsafe: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.
According to the results of
Morning Consult
leading
Democrats
even in the
congressional elections in 2020
against the
Republicans
.
This is particularly relevant after the 2018 elections, as Donald Trump had to give up some power even then.
Congress is crucial when it comes to implementing political ideas in the
US
.
Click
here for the old ticker about the US elections 2020.
(jey)
List of rubric lists: © Brendan Smialowski / AFP