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The NBA season has some important and lesser known dates.
December 15 is one of them: this is the date from which most of the players who signed a new contract last summer can be traded.
This is an important landmark because there are dozens of players involved.
Even if teams are interested in other players, ones that can be traded even before that, they usually prefer to wait until mid-December with their moves.
This is because the free players help complete trades, both in terms of value and contract comparison, so it is much more convenient to make trades when they are free.
This year there has been much more talk of December 15th than usual, including rumors of groups waiting for the deadline to begin initiating significant moves.
Both the East and the West are tight and very competitive, the fight for the top six spots will be tough in both conferences.
The teams that are left behind feel that they must make quick moves to start closing the gap.
No one wants to depend on the play-in tournament, which has already claimed some surprising victims in the few years it's been around.
This review will focus on the key groups that are buying and those that are selling, and also some that may have to make tough decisions soon.
I'll start with the group that devours all the other cards.
Which of them will stay?
Who will pass?
Westbrook and Turner (Photo: GettyImages, Allen Berezovsky)
Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James' team continues to look to trade a significant secondary player to give him one last chance to contend for a championship.
This is the big story of the trade season, and it won't die until the trade comes.
The Lakers have had a bad start to the season and despite improvement in recent weeks are still even outside the play-in picture, yet they seem to have a strong belief that they can be relevant this year.
Anthony Davis' record ability, after two less than good years, helps this belief, along with a long series of games in which the Lakers lacked a dime per pound.
Davis' success comes at center, he has finally taken on the role full-time, which may change Rob Flinka's plans.
If a month ago the hot names were interior players with outside shooting, now the Lakers are more focused on wing players, with outside shooting.
The one who will leave in almost any trade scenario is Russell Westbrook.
Relegating Russ to the bench has done him good and the team is less pressured to get rid of him, but his contract will be necessary to complete any trade in which the Lakers receive significant contracts.
There is a reasonable chance that Russ will not stay in the new team he will join, but will receive a buyout and become the most intriguing name in the free market.
Will big teams want to gamble on him at a minimum price as a joker coming off the bench or would they prefer not to touch this explosive?
This is a question that precedes the later.
The Lakers' trade option is also so interesting because of what it has to offer.
The Lakers' 2027 and 2029 picks are the most attractive future assets currently for sale in the NBA.
While the vast majority of future first-round picks that big teams give away in trades will be low, the Lakers' picks have a fair chance of being high.
They will materialize at a stage when LeBron will be deep in his 40s, probably already in the next chapter of his life (but you'll find out), and Davis, full of injuries, will be around 35 years old and it's hard to imagine him as a senior player at this stage.
Even the Lakers, the most attractive free agent destination ever, will find it very difficult to build a quality team at this time with almost no draft picks.
If those picks are on the table unprotected, and Plinka hinted in the summer that this is the case, any team thinking about its future will covet them.
Anyone planning to sell senior players should start by checking what the Lakers are willing to pay for them.
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Will they get the help they so badly need?
LeBron and Davis (Photo: GettyImages, Greg Fiume)
The tanking groups
The main sellers in the market, as always, are the tanking teams.
This year, thanks in part to Victor Wambanyama, there should have been a lot of them, but at this stage there is a big question mark about the intentions of two of them.
Utah and Indiana are two surprises this season, instead of being one of the weakest teams in the league, they have placed themselves deep in the playoff battles and refuse to move from there.
With both of them, you can already hear reservations about the idea of selling senior players in exchange for future assets.
The question is what will happen when concrete proposals arrive.
Will they really give up moves that could help the future construction in order not to give up current rotation players who are not at all certain to stay for a long time?
This question is especially relevant for Myles Turner, whose combination of rim protection and outside shooting makes him very attractive to big teams.
Turner is out of contract in the summer, and the current talk is that Indiana no longer wants to move him but instead try to extend his contract.
But it may be just a way to raise its price.
The most interesting tanking teams in terms of the trade market are the ones that weren't meant to be.
This year there is already one such: Charlotte.
The official liquidation sale hasn't started yet, but most likely it will come.
Terry Rozier can be the third-fourth player in a big team, Gordon Hayward is injured most of the time but can be an interesting X factor, Kelly Oubre can fit in certain situations, Mason Plumlee is a smart and worthy replacement center, and if the young PJ Washington is also on The table will have many jumps on the interior player with the shooting from the outside.
In my opinion, this is a group that should be of particular interest to the Lakers.
A package around Rozier, one of the best catch-and-shoot shooters in the league in recent years, perhaps along with Hayward, is exactly what Flinka should be looking for.
In the rest of the tanking groups there are mainly two prominent names.
The first is San Antonio's Jacob Flatel, a quality defensive infielder with paint finish and passing ability, he will upgrade the center position of quite a few playoff teams.
The second is Bojan Bogdanovic, the highly experienced scorer who found himself in Detroit, who for some reason hoped to start winning already this year.
Names like Terrence Ross, Gary Harris and Eric Gordon should also be of interest to teams that want another experienced winger for the rotation and don't want to pay more than minimum price.
This could be an interesting package.
Rogier and Hayward (Photo: GettyImages, Jared C. Tilton)
the stuck
During almost every year, additional tanking teams are formed, those that come to the conclusion that the current roster is not leading them anywhere and decide to break up the pack during the season.
They immediately become particularly attractive teams for the majors looking for reinforcements, where you can find All-Stars looking for a new start and other top five players.
This year there are two main candidates to break up the pack, two that are currently tied for 11th-12th places in the East and it is very difficult to imagine them doing anything significant with the current squad.
Naturally, we are particularly interested in Washington.
Danny Avdia's team gave Bradley Beal this summer, as part of the Super Max contract, a rare veto option on trades, so more than the team itself, it is its star who will decide if and when it's time to break up the package.
It wouldn't surprise me if he wanted to leave this unlikely situation already during the season, and it wouldn't surprise me if that's what the Lakers are waiting for, the reason why they're delaying other moves.
In any case, there are reports that Kyle Kuzma already wants to leave regardless, and this could turn out to be the first domino.
If Washington goes for a full or partial rebuild, Avdia should be one of its building blocks.
The other team is Chicago.
The roster based on Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic doesn't seem to be worth more than a first round pick in the playoffs, and even that is far from certain with Lonzo Ball injured and the youngsters not making a big leap.
DeRozan and Vucevic will be the most prominent candidates to leave, they are 33 and 32 years old and this is probably the last chance to get a significant return for them.
It's not certain that Arthuras Kranishovas will rush to dismantle the package he painstakingly built, giving up players like Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter and draft picks, but it's probably the most logical thing to do in the Bulls' current situation.
Will Washington go to rebuild?
Abadia and Porzingis (Photo: GettyImages, Eric Espada)
The buyers, some of whom also sell
Almost every group that thinks big wants to get stronger, but there are some that feel they need an urgent change.
Miami is one such.
At the start of the season, Erik Spoelstra's team looks old, heavy, seven and lacking depth.
All those undrafted discoveries no longer look so impressive.
Miami needs talent, the problem is that they don't have too much to offer in return, except for the potential of Nikola Jovic and draft picks.
It's hard to see Miami making a big move, it makes more sense for them to settle for some sort of consolation prize, but Pat Riley also knows how to surprise.
Dallas is less stressed than Miami, assuming that in the end the team will get back together and create a winning streak, but even in Texas the stage will come when it will be difficult to accept the fact that Luka Doncic has not yet received a real supporting star.
Dallas doesn't have much to offer either, except for Josh Green who is a nice prospect who might have value.
It is likely that the Mavs would prefer to think small this year and wait for the summer.
Once they give the 2023 pick to the Knicks, they will no longer have first-round pick liabilities and will be able to build a loaded pick package in case a significant player becomes vacant.
Two teams are in an unusual situation, where they want to get stronger and at the same time try to sell a rather significant player.
Phoenix has yet to find a trade for Jae Crowder and would love to thicken its unimpressive bench.
Atlanta, it seems, continues to market John Collins whose role is becoming more and more secondary.
Perhaps a match between these two could be suitable: Atlanta will get a forward who will add defense and toughness to the five, Phoenix will get a more talented player who can play both alongside DeAndre Ayton and as a center in low lineups.
The Suns would have to add something in that case, perhaps a first round pick.
Even if the two do not want this type of match, it will be interesting to follow them in the near future both as buyers and sellers.
His name has been mentioned as a transfer candidate for a long time.
John Collins (Photo: Reuters)
The black horses
New Orleans is doing very well as it is, but it has great tools to get stronger.
This is the rare team that has both traded its two stars for youth and draft picks and built a senior roster in a few years, while the picks continue to flow.
It's hard to believe the Pelicans will trade the Lakers' picks, but they also have Milwaukee's picks and their own picks.
David Griffin may look for a mid-sized trade to find a center better suited to play alongside Zion Williamson and Jonas and Lanciano, but if the possibility of a bigger move arises there is no major team that has more to give.
Another interesting team in the transfer market this year is Golden State.
It seems that the champion internalized that James Wiseman is not suitable for a team that is looking for contemporary success and is trying to market the talented center, the question is how he is evaluated in the rest of the league.
Teams that are in the process of building will be happy to gamble on him, but most have no ability to offer a worthy rotation player to a team looking for a rebuild.
Someone, in the end, will take the bet, and Bob Myers will try to concoct a move that will strengthen the bench, which in the meantime looks shaky.
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Los Angeles Lakers
Russell Westbrook
Indiana Pacers
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