- Click to share on Facebook (Opens in a new window)
- Click to share on Twitter (Opens in a new window)
- Click here to share on LinkedIn (Opens in a new window)
- Click to email a friend (Opens in a new window)
(CNN Spanish) - Colombia is in suspense after the announcement of Iván Márquez, Romaña, Jesús Santrich and El Paisa that an insurgent group takes up the armed struggle. After almost three years of signing the agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the problems of implementation, detention, release and disappearance of Jesus Santrich and the fracture within the FARC political party, many wonder what will pass and who is responsible for the emergence of this new guerrilla.
It is notorious that the announcement was made by Iván Márquez, who was leader of the demobilized guerrilla and negotiator of the Havana agreements, considered the number 2 of the insurgent group, and marks a turning point in the peace process.
Several analysts consulted by CNN in Spanish agree that the situation is serious and that violence could escalate. However, the future of the agreement signed in 2016 and the responsibility for this crisis are points of discussion.
MIRA: FARC dissidents, Iván Márquez, Jesús Santrich and Paisa take up arms in Colombia
Is it a failure?
David Huey, representative in Colombia of the Kroc Institute, a center for studying the causes of violent conflict and sustainable peace, told CNN in Spanish that the announcement of dissent is far from being a failure.
"No way. If you look at peace processes, it is usually common in implementation processes that are very complex and take 10 or more years if they are successful. It is also often seen that hardline leaders will leave the process and seek to continue. It is almost what is expected, ”he says.
From the shore of those who opposed the process, the political analyst and ex-senator of the Democratic Center Alfredo Rangel, said on Twitter that “if Márquez, Santrich and El Paisa return to violence it is because they never demobilized all their men, nor did they deliver all their weapons , neither silver nor coca. We warn you: it is the failure of the farce of the peace of Saints. ”
MIRA: The FARC disagreements are rearmed: who are the ones who retake their weapons?
But some think the opposite. Luis Ernesto Gómez, former Minister of Interior and Labor of the Santos Government, wrote on Facebook that “Iván Duque and Álvaro Uribe are the main leaders of the new guerrilla. His political calculations and systematic sabotage of the Peace Process robbed us of a golden opportunity to stop killing us and begin to progress. ”
In that sense, Humberto De la Calle, former negotiator of the Government in the peace accords, spoke.
"Again and again we told the National Government that their permanent attacks on the process and the risks of legal destabilization that they entailed could lead several commanders to make wrong decisions."
MIRA: The factor Venezuela in the announcement of the new guerrilla of FARC dissidents
Worrying situation"
The political analyst León Valencia, director of the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation and member of the Center for Thought about Armed Conflict, Peace and Post-Conflict, said in CNN in Spanish that the announcement of the dissent of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) of Taking up arms is a situation "very worrying and we have to tell it" to the world.
Valencia explains that it was known about the FARC meeting with other guerrillas including the ELN and that they have alliances. “It's a minor guerrilla that demobilized, but they can do a lot of damage to people and the country. They are people with military experience, and especially with money, they have escalated with the illegal mining of gold and drugs. ”
LOOK: León Valencia: We have to tell the world that the return of the guerrillas is very worrying
Valencia, who was a guerrilla fighter from an ELN dissidence and demobilized in 1994, says the situation is "bittersweet", says that part of the FARC continues in a legal way despite the government's breach. "The sour is the rebirth of violence and we could have an escalation."
The analyst also pointed out that if this dissent "begins to attack and kill politicians, it is already the degradation of the conflict, they had already made a practice of kidnapping and if now they are dedicated to killing politicians that means a huge misfortune in the country."
Imelda Daza Cotes, a member of the Colombian Patriotic Union party, called the announcement "worrisome," "unfortunate," and "sad." The policy asked the Government of Colombia to "sit down and talk again to complete this process and achieve total peace."
Will the war return?
According to the Kroc Institute, in 34 cases of peace process since 1989 there is in no instance a case in which war is reinstated.
“Let's say the worst thing that happened is that a dissident group emerges. The key is that as long as the Government continues to implement the agreement, it may be difficult for the dissident group to have support, ”explains Huey.
“If the government were to say that it is going to attack them, if they said that the peace agreement ends and that it is going to attack them, the recruits would be shot by these dissident groups, because people would say that there is no hope. It is not the case here; the government has said it wants to support the process and implementation, ”he said.
Huey says that in this situation it is in which the true personalities of the leaders of the armed groups are seen. “The most moderate stay, they don't give up, they know there are no immediate results. The hardliners are going to alienate and as long as the implementation continues as the Government has said, the dissidents are going to become rebels. ”
Peace in Colombia