Independence Movement: Why Brexit could help Scotland's separatists

When it gets tight, the Queen has to go. It's September 2014 when David Cameron reads the latest poll during a weekend break in the Scottish Highlands: For the first time in this referendum campaign, the separatist camp is in the lead. Suddenly, the scenario seems really realistic: Scotland is split off from Britain.

Cameron, then prime minister, overcomes an "increasing sense of panic." So he describes it five years later, in a BBC documentary, which will air next week. The survey had hit him "like a blow to the solar plexus".

The head of government turns to the royal family. He spoke to the private secretary of the Queen at the time, Cameron reports in the documentary. Of course, he has asked for nothing improper - after all, the monarch is committed to neutrality. He had only hoped for a brief "raising of the eyebrow". Means: The Queen should give a signal that brings the divisive Scots to reason.

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Former Prime Cameron 2014 campaigning against Scottish independence

A week after the poll, a church in the Balmoral, Scotland, is unlikely to meet people and Elizabeth II. "I hope," says the Queen, "that people are thinking very carefully about their future." There is the sign. The message: The separation from Britain, about which the Scots are to vote, means above all uncertainty.

Shortly thereafter, on September 18, 2014, more than 55 percent of voters vote in favor of keeping the northland in the Kingdom. The initiative of the separatists has failed - for now.

Rest has never come

Cameron's accounts of the events of those days now provide new fuel for the debate on Scotland's future. Especially in the governing Scottish National Party (SNP) in Edinburgh, the anger is great. The party sees itself brought to its core goal - independence. Cameron has manipulated the Queen for his cause, they say.

But the excitement also shows that the peace hoped for by London has never come to pass through the referendum. The theme of independence was always on the table. Even more: In the end, the separatists were even able to regain their courage.

The polls show that things are close in Scotland again. For example, in the summer of 2018, YouGov's camp was relatively comfortable with nine percentage points ahead of the separatists. However, the pollsters recently came up with a very different picture: according to an August poll, 43 percent would vote for the secession from the kingdom, and 44 percent against. 13 percent are therefore undecided.

Left-liberal nationalists

The assumption is obvious: the Brexit gives the separatists new impetus. While a small majority voted in favor of leaving the EU in 2016, 62 percent voted against it in Scotland. Many Scots praise their pro-European, liberal, progressive attitudes. The SNP, which even led the regional government by an absolute majority in the meantime, is a left-leaning, social-democratic party. Their nationalism is not drawn from right-wing ideology, but rather from its isolation from England, which many Scots feel to be the preserve of dumb fantasies of power.

Jeff J Mitchell / Getty Images

"England, get out of Scotland": independence advocate in Perth

In 2014, that too is part of the truth, the pro-independence activists would probably initially have to accept the withdrawal from the EU. After all, Scotland would have left the European Union for the time being by abandoning Britain. But the separatists then fomented the hope to rejoin the confederation as soon as possible.

In fact, representatives of SNP are welcome guests in Europe. Party leader Nicola Sturgeon, who also leads the Scottish regional government, has just been awarded the "M100 Media Award" in Potsdam - for her "Commitment to the Cohesion of the European Union".

Mood could tip

That in Downing Street now with Boris Johnson, a man sitting on the Brexit on escalation and full severity, the emigration willing Scots should come even convenient. Because an unregulated exit from the EU, on which the government is heading in London, could tip the mood in favor of the pro-European national state movement.

"My government is doing everything we can to stay connected to the EU," said Sturgeon in Potsdam. It has long been clear that SNP is working towards a second independence referendum. In the case of a tough Brexit, Sturgeon said, one should "envisage this in 2020".

Markus Schreiber / AP

Nicola Sturgeon: "EU stay connected"

Already in the spring, the SNP, which is now supported by the Greens in the Edinburgh regional parliament, has launched a referendum bill there. It should be decided at the end of the year.

London has to decide

Only: The Scots can decide what they want - after all, they need the approval of the British government for their independence. And Johnson does not think so far. Instead, he recently scourged the "destructive ambitions" in Scotland. He'll do anything to keep the UK together, Johnson said.

At the base of his Tories, on the other hand, concern about the collapse of Great Britain does not seem to be so great. According to a June survey, 63 percent would give up Scotland - if they got Brexit for it.

In the end everything should be a question of political pressure. The upcoming ruling of the Supreme Court on Johnson's controversial compulsory break for the British Parliament could also play a role. A Scottish court had declared the maneuver illegal, but the High Court in London ruled that the judiciary had no jurisdiction over the matter.

If the highest court overrules the judges from Edinburgh, one could consider that in Scotland as another affront to the north. It would be the next fuel in the dispute about independence.