United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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London is now expected again. To make everything clear, at least 320 lower house MPs would have to vote for Boris Johnson's freshly-agreed Brexit deal on Saturday. In that case, Britain might well leave the EU on 31 October, as planned. And Johnson should pull as a great triumphant in early elections.
Only 320 supporters, the prime minister in the parliament as things stand. Not yet.
Since the British government has agreed with Brussels on Thursday on a new version of an exit agreement, British media are working hard. The result: about 260 MPs are considered loyal unconditionally. That means: Johnson still has at least 60 doubters on his side to bring his agreement through the lower house.
Which groups are important now - the overview:
The Northern Irish DUP
More recently, the DUP supported the minority government of the Tories of Premier Johnson, but the small party has lost significant influence in recent weeks. Johnson recently ignored her Brexit demands in order to forge the deal with the EU. The ten MPs are now expected to vote against Johnson's agreement.
"We will not cancel Brexit, but the DUP will never support a deal that damages Northern Ireland," said party leader Arlene Foster and her vice-president Nigel Dodds. The DUP is particularly bothered by the planned special status for Northern Ireland:
- In the future, unlike the rest of the Kingdom, the region will operate in accordance with EU internal market rules.
- Between Northern Ireland and the British mother island, there would be a customs border in the Irish Sea.
- The national conservatives are afraid of losing influence in the kingdom.
- In addition, they should have no future veto to abolish the new regime for Northern Ireland.
In fact, Johnson could use the DUP voices urgently. Also, because in the past, some Tory hardliners had made their agreement to the deal to the consent of the Northern Irish. It is quite possible that the government - as in the past - is trying to buy the party with cash payments for Northern Ireland. At the moment, however, the chances of success seem small.
The Tory hardliners
They are the Brexit Ultras among the Tories: a group of radical conservatives and Europeans have so far torpedoed any compromise attempt with Brussels. 28 members of the platform European Research Group (ERG) contributed significantly to the fact that ex-Prime Minister Theresa May failed three times in the lower house with their withdrawal agreement.
But now there is movement on the right edge. Apparently, some EU opponents are willing to co-sponsor Johnson's deal - and to give up the demonstratively expressed solidarity with the DUP. Andrew Bridgen, one of the leading ERG politicians, said of the agreement: "It looks like Brexit, it smells like Brexit, that's Brexit for me." He was ready to swallow some of the agreement to get out of the EU.
It is still not clear how the hardliners behave in the end. But there are reasons for the sudden willingness to talk. On the one hand, part of Johnson's party rights were best provided with posts and posts. Above all, many hope for a landslide victory in the coming elections with a deal. And if the agreement in the House of Commons fails, the right-wingers at least do not want to be held responsible - blaming the new chaos on the left, liberals and moderates.
The Europe-friendly conservatives
Since taking office this summer, Johnson has done everything to make the Tories a radical Brexit party, regardless of losses. Twenty-four moderate MPs are now no longer part of his group, 21 of which the prime minister had thrown out of their own hands because they did not want to support his course. Of a homogeneous group, however, can be no question.
Philip Lee, who defected from the Tories to the Liberal Democrats, will probably vote against the deal with his new party. Three other rebels - Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve and Guto Bebb - also: They call for a second referendum. Boris Johnson's younger brother Jo, who had left the cabinet in protest against government policies, also represented this line. So far, however, Jo Johnson has not commented on whether he wants to vote for or against his brother's deal.
But most renegade conservatives are likely to vote for the deal because, above all, they want to prevent an unregulated withdrawal - that would be possible with this deal. In total, 19 former Tory MPs could endorse the Brexit Treaty.
The Labor Opposition
Since the referendum in 2016, Labor has been on a rolling course at Brexit. Because the party is in a dilemma. The vast majority of deputies and grass-roots activists see themselves as clearly pro-European. But in many Labor strongholds, many people have voted in favor of leaving the EU. Members of these regions fear being punished by their constituents should they block Brexit. Others consider the exit as wrong, but are bound to the outcome of the referendum.
19 Labor MEPs recently said in a letter to European Commission chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker that they would like to support a deal by the government. Four Labor politicians voted for May's deal in the previous vote.
Johnson probably depends on more parliamentarians falling over. He could lure them, for example, with promises to protect workers' rights. He should be accommodated that the leadership of the opposition is not clear. One party favors a second referendum, while party leader Jeremy Corbyn initially just wants to bring down Johnson's deal.
Either way, while potential Labor rebels are under attack inside the Party, they may not have to fear any serious consequences if they help the government cross the finish line. The Labor leadership apparently wants to give up its greatest leverage: A rejection from the faction - as recently in the case of the Tory resistance - do not threaten the potential dissenters, it says from the party.
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