The now potentially state-preserving measure for the Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow was enforced exactly 26 years ago by the CDU, SPD and FDP. On October 25, 1993, the Thuringian MPs met on the Wartburg near Eisenach and adopted the state constitution. Thuringia was the last of the eastern German states to have a constitution. Previously, a "provisional state statute" applied.
The parliamentarians fought at that time violently, the two deputies from the New Forum left the castle in protest. The Greens and the Left List / PDS voted against the constitution because they wanted to make more direct democracy possible.
It is precisely the Constitution that the Left voted against at that time, whose special regulations could use it this fall to continue to govern. Article 70 on the election of the head of government states:
"The Prime Minister is elected by the Diet with a majority of its members without debate by secret ballot."
It is important what is not there: A deadline until when the new state parliament has to choose a prime minister at the latest. They do not exist in Thuringia. In Bavaria, for example, the Prime Minister must be elected within a week of the meeting - and the Diet can dissolve by majority vote. This too is different in Thuringia: For dissolution and new elections, it needs a two-thirds majority.
Means: Should there be a stalemate at the Thuringia election this Sunday - so should neither Red-Red-Green nor an alternative coalition led by the CDU have a majority - Ramelow would simply remain in office. Article 75 states:
"The prime minister and at his request the ministers are required to continue the business until their successors take office."
Ramelow led in such a scenario a minority government, which would not even have to be elected by the new parliament.
In the most recent SPIEGEL survey, Ramelow's left-wing coalition is around 46 percent, with a possible Zimbabwe coalition comprising the CDU, Greens, SPD and FDP reaching 44 percent. What remains? CDU lead candidate Mike Mohring rejects alliances with left or AfD.
Advantage Ramelow.
As a precaution, the coalition has already adopted the budget for the year 2020 in the summer. "I do not have to stand for a vote, I'm in office until someone applies for a vote, which means that I'm no longer in office," said Ramelow the "Thuringian General". CDU candidate Mohring criticized the statements sharply.
"Pressure would be enormous"
Benjamin Höhne, deputy director of the Berlin Institute for Research on Parliamentary Research, says that although this possibility of a minority government exists, it could hardly last long. "The pressure from the public would be enormously high, a government will be voted out and still remain in office without the involvement of the state legislature, which is difficult to convey," says the political scientist.
As a support for important votes practically only the CDU would be available, a cooperation with the AfD all parties excluded. So Ramelow could not - as with minority governments often possible - on changing majorities set, but would depend on the willingness of the CDU. However, that actually excludes any cooperation with the left and could permanently put the government under enormous pressure. "Everything speaks against it," said CDU chief Mohring on the question of whether he would tolerate a minority government of Ramelow.
Therefore, scientist Höhne sees above all the behavior of the parties after the election as crucial. If there is no majority, new elections may be due after a few months of acting government.
The state parliament can bring about a new choice with two-thirds majority. "The parties that make the figure of a poor loser after the election, could then be punished by the Thuringia," says Höhne.
But whether a majority will be found after a new election is another question.