The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

Union: CDU board Brok expects CSU chancellor candidate

2019-10-30T06:52:44.031Z


In the CDU, after the election defeat in Thuringia and before the party congress in November, a discussion about the management staff flared up. According to party executive Elmar Brok, CSU leader Söder could benefit.



The headwind for CDU chief Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in his own party is increasing: CDU European politician Elmar Brok expects the Union to set up a chancellor candidate of the sister party CSU for the next federal election.

"There are some indications that the chancellor's candidacy is being regulated as it has been twice in the history of the Union," said Brok, who also belongs to the CDU Federal Executive, the editorial network Germany (RND).

In 1979, the then Federal Chairman Helmut Kohl waived in favor of Franz Josef Strauss, 2001 then Angela Merkel Edmund Stoiber had the lead. "I'm convinced that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has the peace of mind to make a similar decision when the time is right," said Brok.

The head of the CDU and defense minister had said that she would be chancellor candidate and would make her decision at the appropriate moment. "She has said that she will lead the nomination as party leader from scratch, and if the coalition is not terminated prematurely, this decision will not be made before November or December 2020."

Will Söder ever?

Brok's assessment could amount to the fact that the Bavarian Prime Minister and CSU boss Markus Söder is a candidate. Söder had said a good two weeks ago in an interview with SPIEGEL that the Union leaders should agree to appoint a chancellor candidate.

Asked whether he would exclude his own top candidate, Söder said: "My job is Bavaria, which does not mean that I will not be involved in the national effort for the Union, but as prime minister and CSU chairman."

Recently, however, the historic defeat of the CDU had rekindled the power struggle and directional dispute in the party in the state election in Thuringia. The CDU had sunk to the historic low of 21.8 percent and landed behind Linkspartei and AfD only in third place. Before the CDU party congress (22/23 November in Leipzig), therefore, a new conflict about the next chancellor candidate of the Union is emerging.

CDU-internal dispute: Günther contradicts Merz criticism

The former Union faction leader Friedrich Merz evaluated the election result as a "great vote of no confidence" against the grand coalition in Berlin. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), who misses "political leadership and clear statements", said that the main focus of the criticism was on ZDF. Several politicians from the ranks of the union and FDP joined this criticism.

Contradiction, however, came from the Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, Daniel Günther. The ZDF said the CDU politician on Tuesday evening, it was very obvious, "that this is more about settling old bills." He has little understanding for it. In the RND newspapers Günther demanded: "We should now work together against it, that people from the sidelines in the CDU shape the debates."


You want to answer the Sunday question for the covenant? Vote here:

How does the Civey method work?

The opinion research institute Civey works with a multi-level fully automated procedure. All representative real-time surveys are played in a Germany-wide network of more than 20,000 websites ("Riversampling"), so it is not only users of SPIEGEL ONLINE interviewed. Anyone can participate in the surveys online and will be included in the representative result with their answers if they have registered. From these users, Civey draws a quoted sample that ensures that it matches the population, for example, in terms of age, gender and population density. Finally, in a third step, the results are weighted by other attendees' socio-demographic factors and attitudes to correct distortions and prevent manipulation. More information can be found in the Civey FAQ.

Why is a registration necessary?

The registration helps to weigh the answers, thus allowing a result for the surveys, which is representative of the voting population in Germany. Each participant is asked for their gender, year of birth and place of residence. After that everyone can give their opinion in further surveys on different topics.

How do the results become representative?

The answer of each participant is weighted so that the result of a survey is representative of the population. For the Sunday question and the government monitor, this population comprises the population entitled to vote in Germany. The weighting is done fully automatically on the basis of the personal details at the registration as well as the history of earlier answers of a user. More methodological details can be found in the Civey whitepaper.

Will you reach enough participants online?

Opinion polls are usually conducted by phone or online. The significance of the results depends on how many people can be reached and how many actually participate in a survey when they are approached. Internet connections and landline connections are currently about equally widespread in Germany - with about 90 percent of households, mobile phones even 95 percent. The willingness to participate in all methods in the single-digit percentage range, especially experts estimate it for telephone surveys.
Thus, in both methods there is a group of people that can not be reached because they either have no connection to the respective network or do not want to participate in the survey. Therefore, a significant number of people must always be approached for a meaningful result. Civey surveys are currently in addition to SPIEGEL ONLINE in more than 20,000 other websites involved, including various media. This ensures that as many populations as possible can be reached.

How do I recognize the quality of a result?

Until the result of a survey becomes representative, enough different people have to participate. Whether this is already successful, makes Civey transparent, in that for each survey result a statistical error probability is specified. The number of participants and the interview time are also published for each survey.

What does it mean when the colored areas in the graphics overlap?

In our graphs, the statistical error is shown as a colored interval. This interval shows the uncertainty associated with a poll score. For example, on the Sunday question, one can not say exactly how many percent a party would get in a poll, but specify an interval where the outcome is likely to be. If the intervals of two survey values ​​overlap, then strictly speaking no statements about the difference can be made. For the Sunday question this means: If the poll numbers of two parties are so close together that overlap their error intervals, it can not be derived from which would currently perform better in the election.

What happens with my data?

The personal data of the users are stored encrypted on German servers and remain secret. Civey employees use only user IDs for reporting and can not associate users with their votes. The main purpose of the users' personal information is to weigh the answers and to ensure that the surveys are not manipulated. To prevent this, Civey uses both statistical and technical methods. In addition, Civey works with external partners who create audiences. Only when users have accepted the privacy policy of both Civey and an external partner, may your responses be used by the Partner to model those audiences. However, a partner does not receive information about your political and religious attitudes as well as those with which you can be identified. Civey users are also not ads based on their answers. You may object to the distribution to partners at any time here as a logged in user. More information about privacy at Civey can be found here.

Who is behind Civey surveys?

At this point, readers in the app and on the mobile / stationary website have the opportunity to participate in a representative Civey survey. Civey is an online opinion research institute based in Berlin. To compile its representative surveys, the software of the company, founded in 2015, merges websites into a nationwide survey network. In addition to SPIEGEL ONLINE include, among other things, the "Tagesspiegel", "World", "Wirtschaftswoche" and "Rheinische Post". Civey was funded by the ProFit funding program of Investitionsbank Berlin and the European Regional Development Fund.

Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2019-10-30

Trends 24h

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.