United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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Boris Johnson made it: Britain's prime minister made his request for new elections in the fourth round through the lower house on Tuesday evening - with an overwhelming majority. 438 MPs voted in favor of his motion, only 20 against. Now begins the election campaign on the island. According to initial polls, his Tories lead the Labor Party by 13 percentage points.
But British researchers speak of the "most unpredictable choice in decades". The poll numbers are volatile. Four parties have approval figures in the double-digit percentage range. Almost all of them should be dependent on alliances after the election. With which programs do the parties want to convince voters - and what are the chances of success?
In addition to Brexit, Johnson's Conservative promise health, education and security - but the first two are classic Labor themes. And their commitment is not taken from the Tories. The British are responsible for the grievances in the public sector, the Tories, after all, have been in power for nine years.
And as for Brexit: Johnson will repeat his promise to lead the British out of the EU at any cost - but now he seems less credible. With his allegedly immovable exit on October 31, he failed, with his laboriously negotiated deal as well.
His commitment not to bring the Brexit agreement back to Parliament for a vote was the price he had to pay to the opposition parties to vote for them. Whether voters like such behavior is open.
Johnson's broken promises are being made by the Brexit party - which has only left the EU as an issue and has not yet had a seat in parliament. Johnson could not believe and who really wants Brexit, should rather go with his party to the No Deal, said Brexit party boss Nigel Farage. Johnson publicly demanded an apology for his failure earlier this week.
Currently, the hardliners around Farage poll numbers around the 13 percent - at least enough to harm the Tories sensitive. These are aware of the danger and supposedly already negotiate the first non-aggression pacts:
- According to the British media, several Tory MPs have asked the Brexit party not to nominate candidates in their constituencies.
- The fear: Especially in Brexit strongholds, where both parties have good chances, they could steal each other's votes.
- Ultimately, quite different, EU-friendly candidates could make the race.
AP / Jean-Francois Badias
Brexit party leader Nigel Farage in the European Parliament - in the British lower house his party has so far no seats
Whether it happens is questionable. The only thing that is clear so far is: Farage will co-dominate the election campaign. Internally the party allegedly already has candidates in the selection for 600 of the 650 electoral districts.
Jeremy Corbyn, leader of Labor's largest opposition party, has already announced the "most radical and largest popular campaign" the country has ever seen. Happened so far - is little: A campaign video with hip hop sound and images of burning forests, wind turbines and applauding quantities. The rattled message: "Poverty is not inevitable".
In the Brexit question, the party has still not positioned itself clearly. The problem - the heterogeneous electorate:
- Young, left-liberal, principally pro-European voters
- and voters in industrial cities and rural areas, most of whom voted in favor of Brexit.
So far, the compromise is: After the election, a second referendum will be held, in which the "people have the last word". Then the British are to decide between remaining in the EU and a hitherto negotiated by Labor Brexit deal.
Although many voters find themselves in this compromise again - for those who want to know Brexit finally enforced or moderated, but this offer will be too vague.
REUTERS
Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn in the lower house: He prefers to talk about his party's environmental agenda rather than positioning himself for Brexit
The Liberal Democrats are the fourth party to reach double-digit percentage polls and, together with the Scottish SNP, are Brexit's biggest opponents. Both parties are seeking a second referendum to avert withdrawal.
The Scots under party leader Nicola Sturgeon also threatened to seek a referendum on independence from the kingdom, they should be conducted against the majority will of the population and without passable deal from the EU. The Liberal Democrats could win in London and big university cities, where many voted against Brexit.
One thing is clear: Johnson can not be sure that his lead will continue in the coming weeks. When his predecessor Theresa May called new elections in April 2017, she now led by a larger margin than Johnson. However, nothing remained of that, May lost the majority in parliament. A non-aggression pact with the Brexit party therefore seems a safe first step for the not-so-successful Premier.
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