Voice of the vote # 121 - Flying high, falling deeply: how are you going to continue with the Greens?
- Subscribe to
- Apple podcasts
- Google podcasts
- Spotify
- Deezer
- Alexa
- RSS
All podcasts
10.8 percent in Brandenburg. 8.5 percent in Saxony. And at the end of the state elections in the East then 5.2 percent in Thuringia: Although the Bündnis90 / The Greens in the new federal states is always weaker than in the West, but the results were a damper. Party leader Robert Habeck said after the Thuringia election: "The result should have been better."
Were the elections in the East the reality check for the Greens? And do they have consequences for the upcoming party congress? Valerie Höhne says: "The state elections have at least brought the Greens back to the ground." With her and our colleague Amalia Heyer we also discuss the question of the chancellor candidate in the new episode of "Stimmenfang".
The two Greens bosses do not comment on this - but Robert Habeck is considered a favorite. "I still trust Annalena Baerbock a lot," says our colleague Amalia Heyer . However, the journalists agree on one thing: that the time until the next general election for the Greens will be difficult.
How do I subscribe to the podcast?
You will find "Stimmenfang - der Politik-Podcast" every Thursday on SPIEGEL ONLINE ( just hit the red play button above ) and on podcast platforms like Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Deezer or Soundcloud. On the way, on the way to work, in sports: You can hear our new audio format wherever you want and when you want. Subscribe to our free podcast "Voices Catch" to not miss a episode.
You can either hear "Voices Catching" through the player in this article or download it to your smartphone, tablet or computer. So you can play it anytime - even if you're offline.
If you are reading this text on an iPhone or iPad , click here to go directly to the podcast app. Click on the Subscribe button to get a new episode directly to your device every week for free.
If you 're using an Android device , you can "catch votes" on Google podcasts, or download a podcast app such as Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, or others and add "voice catch" to your subscriptions.
You can also hear voice capture with your Alexa devices . Simply install the Voicemail Alexa app.
The podcast as a text to read
You want to read what's said in the podcast? Then you are right here.
The complete transcript
[00:00:02] Matthias Kirsch Welcome to Stimmenfang, the political podcast from SPIEGEL. I am Matthias Kirsch.
[00:00:06] Robert Habeck (Alliance 90 / The Greens) Well, when I asked myself this morning, "When are you happy tonight?" I had other numbers in my head. What has happened now, about 22 percent, is really a sensation and one that takes our breath away.
[00:00:23] Matthias Kirsch So euphoric the cheers and the Greens leader sound after the European elections in late May. From today's perspective, one could say: the culmination of the green wave of success. A few weeks after the Thuringia election Robert Habeck sounded like this:
[00:00:37] Robert Habeck (Alliance 90 / The Greens) The result should have been better and better - if it can be better, I do not know exactly - but it felt even more. It was a very cohesive, highly motivated, basically really good election campaign. And then the result is hold, plus, minus - let's see how the evening goes - something you can not be satisfied with.
[00:00:58] Matthias Kirsch If you want to tell the story of the Greens in 2019, then it sounds like this: Just the Union in the polls at the heels, with fable numbers around 25 percent and a little later humbly recognize again that in a state election more would have been possible. From the big election winner in Europe, that is to say, to the trembling near the five percent hurdle in Thuringia. Then one wonders: Does the reality of the Greens after their high flight again? And does this have consequences for the re-election of Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck? They want to be confirmed at the party congress in mid-November as Greens bosses. That's what this episode is about. For this I am now talking to two colleagues who are the experts for this: Amalia Heyer and Valerie Höhne. Both write for the SPIEGEL on the Alliance 90 / The Greens. Hello Valerie, hello Amalia.
[00:01:50] Amalia Heyer Hello.
[00:01:51] Valerie Höhne Hello.
[00:01:52] Matthias Kirsch Amalia, let's start with you. You were here with my colleague Yasemin Yüksel this summer, you talked about the Greens. At that time you said: The Reality Check for the Greens, which comes at the latest on the government bank, but maybe even earlier. Is this reality check already here?
[00:02:09] Amalia Heyer No, I would say he is not there yet. The came also not through the Eastern elections, because there was just further quasi tested, that was another litmus test. But I believe that the Reality Check can indeed come before the government bank, namely, if we now - and the Greens and their chairmen go out at the moment - if we quasi put it in the long haul, so if we have these two Living with this government for years will be a kind of reality check. Then they have to hold their whole poll numbers, their approval ratings for a long time.
[00:02:47] Matthias Kirsch How do you see that, Valerie? Will the Greens hold that up?
[00:02:51] Valerie Höhne Well, I think the Eastern elections were kind of a reality check, because they showed that the Greens are not in the milieus that they do not have, that they are not theirs, they are not urban, they are not intellectual, they are hard to score. I believe that also showed you again that Bavaria and Hesse are not transferable to the entire Federal Republic. Therefore, I think that it has brought back the party, so to speak, so to speak, to the bottom of the facts. That many no longer assume that they somehow land at 25 percent in the federal election.
[00:03:30] Matthias Kirsch Just to remember perhaps because you have addressed Hesse and Bavaria for our listeners: In the state elections in Hesse and Bavaria last fall, the Greens have indeed had very good results.
[00:03:39] One- player giant jubilation against the Greens. They doubled their share of votes and are now the new number two in the Free State.
[00:03:46] Matthias Kirsch To the 20 percent limit - not quite - but in the direction. Then let's just take a look at these state elections in the East. I have the numbers here in front of me: 8.5 percent in Saxony, not quite 11 percent in Brandenburg and only just above the 5 percent limit in Thuringia. Valerie, why do the Greens have this hype that is really there in the summer and since last autumn - why could not they take it to the East?
[00:04:13] Valerie Höhne I think that has different reasons. On the one hand, of course, it is already structurally much worse off in the East. You are still more of a Western party. They have few members, which means that you can hang little posters, that you can do little event, make little election campaign stands. On the other hand, it certainly has something to do with the fact that in the end there was actually an escalation in all three countries, in each case to the Prime Minister. In Saxony and Brandenburg it was still a bit different, because there was the escalation between the Prime Minister Party and the AfD. And in Thuringia it was an escalation between CDU and Linker. But nevertheless, the Greens have at least cost votes in Saxony and Brandenburg.
[00:04:59] Amalia Heyer I think for now - that might sound a bit mean now - but the general election at the end will not be decided in the East. And there I have to say: I think it was from the Greens ... They let themselves be carried away a bit by their euphoria and have priced it in wrong. Because what I then heard from the faction and the party, that sounded to me a lot more reasonable. For example, voices came along with it: To be honest, I'm glad we're inside at all. But because before that but the hype was so great, then this disappointment was just so great.
[00:05:32] Valerie Höhne I had the impression that the party - so the point was so long, that somehow capture everything and say: This is just a hype, these are just polls and yes, Bayern and Hesse, but ...
[00:05:43] Robert Habeck (Alliance 90 / The Greens) ... "Of course it makes a big difference if you ask on the phone: Good day, which party would you vote for, if Sunday is the election? Or if you actually go to the polls?
[00:05:52] Valerie Höhne And then came the European election with 20.5 percent. And I think that just so encouraged the Greens that they can be so much stronger.
[00:06:00] Robert Habeck (Alliance 90 / The Greens) This is a gigantic leap of faith and we will evaluate this as a work assignment on a federal and European level.
[00:06:08] Valerie Höhne It was such a bäm moment for her. And I believe that made the Eastern elections again such a vaping - such a real damper.
[00:06:14] Matthias Kirsch If you refer to the European elections: Even in the European elections in East Germany, the numbers were less high than in the West. But the results were much better than in the state elections. Why is that? Why can the Greens score better in the European elections in the East than when it comes to the state elections?
[00:06:31] Valerie Höhne I think the Greens are always good when they are relatively far away. It's kind of a good feeling to vote green because you do not do anything wrong, morally all right. But if I think that the Greens may want to take away my diesel. That does not make it so specific at the European level. But if they sit with me in the parliament, in the government, then maybe. I could imagine that is such a fear.
[00:06:56] Matthias Kirsch Then let's have a look. Amalia, we are now pretty much in the middle of the legislature. If we look at the past, in 2011, in the middle of the legislature, the Greens were at a huge poll. In 2015, around half way through, the Greens were also relatively strong. Thereafter, the Greens but in the general elections, which then followed, repeatedly landed at this eight, nine percent. Why are not the Greens failing to bring this hype along until the end of the legislature?
[00:07:24] Amalia Heyer I think, in 2017 as well as in 2013, they just made massive, gross blunders towards the end. So there was this moral index finger everywhere. There were some taxes, which should then suddenly be packed on your own choice clientele. And then, I think, there was another kind of party structure in the form of an incomprehensibly divided leadership duo, namely Simone Peters and Cem Özdemir.
[00:07:53] Cem Özdemir (Alliance 90 / The Greens) Should I go on now or will we first make a Grand Coalition?
[00:07:59] Amalia Heyer So there was no question of unity at all and accordingly not of common strategy. And I think that this disunity, coupled with these really rough carvers, has cost the Greens a lot of votes and a lot of trust.
[00:08:18] Matthias Kirsch If you mention the carvers, for example, there was the proposal for the Veggie Day, which did not go down well. Does the Greens happen again this time?
[00:08:31] Valerie Höhne (laughs) I do not know, no idea. It can of course be everything ... everything can happen. I say it like this:
[00:08:32] Matthias Kirsch Is the party structure better now, for example?
[00:08:36] Valerie Höhne So, of course, communication at the federal level is much better at the federal level because Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck simply understand each other or at least deny each other. No idea what's going on behind closed doors - but that's just behind closed doors. That's just not going public. And on the other hand, the weakness of the other parties, especially the SPD, is so blatant. And we do not think, at the moment, how to recover in the next year and a half. That the Greens will benefit massively? You should always be careful with forecasts, but I would think that they are doing much, much better than last time. On the one hand yes, the communication in the party leadership is much better, Robert Habeck is also simply a very charismatic party chairman and Annalena Baerbock is also charismatic acts especially in the party.
[00:09:26] Amalia Heyer It has to be said that the two of them managed to transfer the main emphasis of power from the faction to the party. And that is what they have achieved through their unity, through understanding themselves. But what I find so amazing about the two is also this complementary that they have. It really is like that: one does not like to imagine one without the other.
[00:09:52] Robert Habeck (Alliance 90 / The Greens) Annalena is fun. I hope she says the same thing to me.
[00:09:53] Amalia Heyer You do not want to have alone this human scavenging, like also cloudy Robert Habeck alone, nor the always knowing, standing by Annalena Baernbock. But together they are really the perfect sparring partners for a party leadership. That's already solved ingeniously - for the time being. Of course, you do not know how long it will last.
[00:10:17] Matthias Kirsch One thing that could play a role in this idyllic collaboration is the question of the chancellor candidate, the chancellor candidate. We will come to that later. First let's talk about the here and now. After all, the climate question determines the public debate significantly. The Greens are actually meeting the zeitgeist.
[00:10:36] Valerie Höhne Yes, the Zeitgeist is great for the Greens.
[00:10:43] One- player climate demo We're here, we're loud because you're stealing our future.
[00:10:43] Valerie Höhne Climate protection has rarely been a mainstream issue and has only just begun. And I do not know if that stays like that. Two rainy summers and nobody will talk so emotionally about climate protection in Germany anymore. That's why I think that's just very volatile. I think they are catching a lot right now, of what they can catch. But it is still not the most important question for most people in their everyday lives.
[00:11:08] Amalia Heyer I'd like to make the bet that the 2021 Bundestag election, if held there, is not likely to be a climate choice. I think the economic data is too stupid for that, and that's why I consider that the priority of the party is to put itself well in these other issues as well - in fact economics, social affairs. You will be measured by that. Keyword Reality Check. What they can do beyond this zeitgeist and beyond this climate issue, which is likely to be attributed to them now and then, anyway.
[00:11:50] Matthias Kirsch Nonetheless, many of the new members joined the party because of the climate issue. How is that a problem? Robert Habeck represents this point, he would like to fit in such a Big 10 party on the model of the US Democrats, so a party in the quite, very many different people.
[00:12:08] Valerie Höhne A People's Party.
[00:12:08] Matthias Kirsch And on the other side ... a people's party ...
[00:12:14] Amalia Heyer He would never say that.
[00:12:14] Valerie Höhne Yes, absolutely.
[00:12:14] Matthias Kirsch And on the other side these new members, of whom many may demand: We have to do much more in terms of climate. How does that fit together?
[00:12:25] Amalia Heyer I think you just have to get it together. But I think those who come in for the sake of the climate - keyword Fridays for Future - are quite smart people who will understand that the party has to go to other fields to take more people. And that is also the approach of Baerbock-Habeck, that they say: We do not want to be the other people's climate app here, but we are happy when the others somehow incorporate and take over. And that these maximum demands like now Fridays for Future, which just now not find their way.
[00:13:02] Valerie Höhne If the GroKo were to make a blatant climate package now, they would of course already have a problem. That would have been very exciting. But since this is not the case, the topic of the Greens remains for the time being.
[00:13:17] Anton Hofreiter (Alliance 90 / The Greens) If you look at the Pillepalle packet of the German government, you realize: Not only do you not want it, you can not.
[00:13:27] Matthias Kirsch Either way, I think, one can say: The climate package of the Federal Government, that has the Green now quite into the cards played.
[00:13:34] Valerie Höhne Absolutely. One can also see it: they were before - shortly after Saxony and Brandenburg - at 22 percent. Then came this climate package, then they were at 26 percent. Now came Thuringia, now they are back to 22 percent. So it's also interesting. Of course, depending on what's going on at the moment, the polls are going too, they're swinging with it. And that's why, Amalia, if you're right and it will not be a climate choice, then you will suffer as well. I do not think you agree that you'll land over 20 percent.
[00:14:02] Matthias Kirsch The points that you have now addressed - weakness of the opponents and the high poll numbers - that bring something else with it, namely the question of a chancellor candidate or a chancellor candidate. That's a question that Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck have come to adore.
[00:14:23] Amalia Heyer So, I think that's exactly how you correctly say that ambition and power in the Greens, I sometimes feel, are still a bit frowned upon. If you have it, you must not show it too ostentatiously. Of course this is a tightrope walk for every top politician, because somehow, as Valerie correctly said, they want to govern now. They have this claim, they also admit it. Habeck says so to speak: government party in waiting. And it really falls this sentence: We want to govern now. On the other hand, if it then just goes to the internals in the party, then you say, like everything is just so hermetically. We have the everlasting double top. We have the wing proportional, which is now exhausted by the two, but still there and so on. You do everything that somehow somebody does not suddenly jump forward.
[00:15:12] Matthias Kirsch But what if it continues to work so well? In the polls, but also in the local elections that are still pending, for example in Hamburg - what then?
[00:15:21] Amalia Heyer Then, of course, someday they'll have to put somebody up and that certainly can not be a double top. And now it looks like that - so now the GroKo would fail and there would be new elections and so on - so I hear, there would be a consensus, of course, for Robert Habeck as a candidate, because he is simply the better known, which binds more people. But I also think that will be very interesting on this long-distance route. Because, if that still lasts two years, then I trust Annalena Baerbock, who is now very, very popular in the party, I trust her, because also still catch up a lot.
[00:15:57] Matthias Kirsch A few weeks ago, Winfried Kretschmann, the Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg, said yes at an event to the question of who should be green chancellor candidate, shot so much out of the shotgun: Habeck. That this name Habeck falls so much more often. Is that somehow a problem for the top management? Does that lead to tensions in those?
[00:16:18] Amalia Heyer I know Annalena Baerbock as an insanely ambitious, ambitious politician. We can understand that ourselves. In your place, that annoys you sometimes, if you keep the strings together, and the credits she has, and yes she has increasingly in public - I think that this annoys them.
[00:16:39] Valerie Höhne I think so, of course. I also believe that there are certainly quite upsets even within the party leadership, when Robert Habeck again something on video says, what just great nonsense is.
[00:16:54] Matthias Kirsch That happened to him a couple of times ...
[00:16:55] Valerie Höhne Has happened to him a couple of times ...
[00:16:55] Matthias Kirsch ... for example, after the federal government has decided on its climate package, it became clear that he did not know exactly how the commuter commute works.
[00:17:04] Robert Habeck (Alliance 90 / The Greens) If you increase the price of petrol by three cents, but increase the commuter rate by five cents, then it is more worthwhile to drive by car than by train. It has to be the other way around. You need an incentive to switch to public transport and use it.
[00:17:17] Oliver Köhr The commuter tax is also paid if you travel by train.
[00:17:20] Robert Habeck (Alliance 90 / The Greens) Yes, but not ... Then it's just the reimbursement of the train ticket or will it ... I do not know. But the key question is whether you have an incentive to drive by car.
[00:17:30] Valerie Höhne Exactly, and that is actually for a top politician in Germany, well, at least not good. I think that such a thing also leads to displeasure. That's just his problem. His problem is that he is not well enough prepared for such questions; that he shoots from the hip; that he is a bit of a 'loose canon'. The party can not 100 percent expect that he is always prepared. That's a problem for a chancellor candidate. With Annalena Baerbock they could count on it. And of course the Greens also see themselves as a feminist party and then to put the woman in the background and forward the Robert, does not suit all. If you ask Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck about this chancellor question, then both say it's way too early and we're not talking about it.
[00:18:19] Annalena Baerbock (Alliance 90 / The Greens) I have answered several times that for us the question of Chancellor candidate is not what we are now dealing with centrally. Because that is not the central topic for us at the moment.
[00:18:30] Matthias Kirsch Other people in the party too, Jürgen Trittin, for example, recently said the same thing to SPIEGEL in an interview. Are you right? Would not a little bit of clarity be good for the voters? To know who is there for the Greens?
[00:18:43] Amalia Heyer There are already voices in the party that are looking a bit like that. They are all always terribly afraid of losing the momentum. And there are actually voices that say: Would not it help us if we confess clearly here now and send somebody into the race and give it all the power. I think that is now increasing a bit.
[00:19:04] Valerie Höhne: Well, I also tend to think that many of the Greens who have witnessed in 2013 - in 2011 we have to say that the Greens were at times in polls at 28 percent after Fukushima, then crashed to 8, x percent - and many of the greens who have witnessed this are terrified that things are going downhill rapidly. But also know that it is a real danger. You just have to imagine what the headlines will be. The Greens would now commit to a chancellor candidate. And then, in two years, the Greens are somehow at 13 percent in the polls. And the SPD is suddenly at 17 percent. And it says like this: The Greens, these arrogant Greens have thought that could set up chancellor candidates - for God's sake! So, and that would always be brought out again. I think this danger is very present.
[00:19:49] Amalia Heyer I think it's too early now. But now this question is always completely rejected in bows and whistles. But then someday you would have to think about it and open yourself a bit, they will hopefully do it. And that's just not how it is always insinuated, something like: Yes, the GroKo bursts and then we start to somehow explore, who now has more opportunities.
[00:20:12] Matthias Kirsch Talking about GroKo. The government now seems to have come to terms with basic pensions. And it is assumed that this agreement will decide whether the grand coalition will continue or not. If that is the case, if the government continues until the end of the legislature - what does that mean for the Greens?
[00:20:30] Valerie Höhne I think it is rather bad for the Greens. I think they will do this long distance, which you also described, that will be very difficult for them to do. And if the climate issue is no longer so present, then they will not get as much attention, not even for the other topics. That's just a problem for them.
[00:20:49] Amalia Heyer I tend to agree with Valerie. But the funny thing is that the Greens say the opposite: it's really, really great.
[00:20:56] Annalena Baerbock (Alliance 90 / The Greens) In this context, I think it's good that the Grand Coalition has finally come up with a compromise on the ground rent.
[00:21:04] Amalia Heyer You want this term to end "prosperously," Habeck said. And they do not deviate from that and even go so far as to say: It's wonderful. Now comes grosso modo, a relatively random time. Since we can gain in gravity, then we can deal factually with many things. Since we can also integrate the new members, which is of course not entirely wrong. But of course it is true that if you go to the pure political electoral calculus, then - if it holds, no one knows - then I also see more problems in the long haul than now in new elections.
[00:21:45] Valerie Höhne And I think this party is also in this field of tension. On the one hand they really want to govern, they want to widen their lives, they want to become this Big 10 party. On the other hand, they also know their limitations and, of course, know that sewing on edge is everything.
[00:22:00] Matthias Kirsch All right, Valerie, Amalia, thank you.
[00:22:01] Valerie Höhne Thank you, bye.
[00:22:01] Amalia Heyer Thank you, bye.
[00:22:07] Matthias Kirsch That was the vote, the political podcast from SPIEGEL. The next episode of Stimmenfang you hear as always from next Thursday on mirror.de, Spotify and in all sorts of podcast apps. If you would like to send us feedback, just write an e-mail to Stimmfang@stimmenfang.de or use our voice mailbox on 040 380 80 400. You can also send us a WhatsApp number to the same number, ie 040 380 80 400. Send Message. This episode was produced by Yasemin Yüksel and me, Matthias Kirsch. Thanks for the support to Philipp Fackler, Sebastian Fischer, Johannes Kückens, Wiebke Rasmussen and Matthias Streitz. The vocal music comes as always from Davide Russo.