The SPD is nervous. Only a few hours left, then it is clear who the members want to have as new chairmen: Klara Geywitz and Olaf Scholz or Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans. At 0 o'clock in the night from Friday to Saturday ended the questioning of the approximately 425,000 comrades, on Saturday at 18 o'clock the result is to be announced in the Willy-Brandt-Haus. The outcome is open, surveys or even reliable forecasts do not exist.
Since 2 June, the Social Democrats are looking for a new leadership. This time, it should not be decided in the back room who will take over the party chairmanship. The SPD board elected a months-long, public procedure with 23 regional conferences and initially 17 candidates. At first, a spirit of optimism was felt, the feeling was: the party is still alive.
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Ex-SPD bosses Brandt, Engholm, Scharping & Co: Who were Nahles' predecessors?But now, shortly before the result, many comrades outweigh skepticism and uncertainty. Will the members make a clear decision or threaten a split? And what about the Grand Coalition?
The starting position of the duel, the chances of the candidates and a perspective on the days before the congress:
the initial situation
Vice-Chancellor Scholz and the Brandenburgerin Geywitz were in the first round in the first round - but only about 3500 votes in front of the second-placed Walter-Borjans and Esken. The race for the successor to Andrea Nahles took off in the runoff, after a harmonious, but increasingly boring first round.
It is now about a directional decision: Scholz and Geywitz represent a whereabouts in the Grand Coalition and the continuation of the current course of the party leadership. The former finance minister of North Rhine-Westphalia Walter Borjans and the member of parliament Esken put an end to the next-so, they want a more radical, left profiling of the SPD.
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Jusos on the SPD: "We have to leave the GroKo"They are supported by the Jusos and important parts of the NRW-SPD. The GroKo rush to leave reject Walter Borjans and Esken. If the desired renegotiation with the Union fails, however, it could come to a break.
Scholz and Geywitz have broad support from leading Social Democrats. Almost all ministers have spoken out for them, including Lower Saxony's Prime Minister Stephan Weil and most of the Bundestag members wish for a victory of the two.
The duel
Nevertheless, it is unclear whether Scholz and Geywitz win. The turnout was only 53 percent in the first round. If there are a similar number of members this time, it could be tight for the vice-chancellor, the party said. Because his opponents are highly motivated. Scholz and Geywitz must hope to have reached the more passive members, who are afraid of a break of the coalition and possible new elections.
Should the turnout increase significantly, there could be a clear victory for both of them. Unlike in the first ballot, the party gave this time no intermediate status, as many members had already voted.
Michael Kappeler / DPA
Klara Geywitz and Olaf Scholz, Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans: who wins the membership decision?
Although the duel between the candidates was mostly fair, the confrontation in the past few days came to a head. Especially on Twitter supporters of both teams were in the parliamentary group vented on Monday evening displeasure with Esken and the Jusos. Several MPs criticized a decision of the youth organization on the asylum policy of the GroKo and accused the candidate to complain about the policy of the SPD in the government.
However, the positioning of large parts of the fraction also meets with criticism. Some say they are "so far out in the trees", the party says, it's hard to imagine how they would come down there - how they could work together with the new party leadership in a victory for Walter Borjans and Esken.
The outlook
The acting party leader Malu Dreyer demanded in the SPIEGEL interview team spirit of the comrades. Each member, and especially the party leadership, has the task of holding the party together, Dreyer said: "If the self-supported duo does not win, you should be able to say: Okay, that was a democratic election, I accept the result From now on, continue to work for the party as a whole. "
The candidates promised each other not to give the bad loser after the election. "Neither Olaf nor Norbert are as good as Friedrich Merz," said Klara Geywitz at the last TV duel. Even after losing to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the CDU politician can hardly conceal that he considers himself the better chairman.
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In order to prevent a split and to mitigate the frustration of the losers, the winners may try to include parts of the other camp. In the case of a victory of Scholz and Geywitz, the role of Kevin Kühnert should become the focus. He was re-elected by a large majority last weekend as Juso chief and already announced a candidacy for the party executive.
At the party congress, which will take place in Berlin from 6 to 8 December, the choice of the party leadership will focus on the future of GroKo. On Tuesday, the extended presidium will meet on this issue - then for the first time with the two designated party leaders. On Wednesday, then presidium and party executive to set the course for the party congress.
Which one that will be depends crucially on who goes on Saturday evening as the winner of the stage.
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