Politics
Written by: Zheng Baosheng
2019-12-07 23:44
Last updated: 2019-12-07 23:44The 2019 District Council elections have come to an end, but it is still a topic of discussion after politics. Some constitutionalists lamented that the constitutionalism was a big defeat this time. Only "double-low" constituencies with low numbers of voters and low turnout rates can be maintained.
However, the "Hong Kong 01" survey found that, in fact, the establishment winners were not all "double-low" constituencies. Some constitutionalists were elected in areas with large populations, large voters, and high turnout rates.
The District Councils election on November 24, all districts in Hong Kong have long queues to vote, with a daily turnout rate of 71.23%. (Profile picture)
The district council elections were completed, and only 59 seats were formed, compared with 292 seats in 2015. Many legislators and district council members were dismissed, including the DAB Zhang Guojun, Zhou Haoding, the FTU He Qiming, Mai Meijuan et al.
The establishment faction reviews the gains and losses after the election and looks forward to the impact of next year's Legislative Council elections. Some people in the organizational system lamented that the former institutionalized ticket warehouses were in traditional supporter areas such as North Point, Kowloon City, and public housing areas dominated by the grassroots. These areas have also been repeatedly lost this time. Many of the areas kept this time are described It is a "double low" area with a small number of voters and a low turnout rate.
20 constituencies `` double low '' 12 constituencies `` double high ''
"Hong Kong 01" analyzes 59 electoral districts elected by the establishment, calculates the turnout rate of each district, and the proportion of voters to the population of the district. Use the 70% turnout rate as the boundary, 70% or more as the high turnout rate, and 50% or more of the population as the percentage of voters, and 49% or less as the lower limit. .
Of the 59 constituencies elected by the formation, if excluding two constituencies with a population of less than 7,000, Peng Chau, Hei Ling Chau, Lamma and Po Toi, 20 constituencies meet the "double low" standard and 12 constituencies meet "Double height" standard.
12 constituencies with high turnout but less than half of voters
In addition, there were 12 constituencies with a turnout rate of more than 70% but a voter ratio of less than 50%, and 13 constituencies with a turnout rate of less than 70% but a voter ratio of more than 50%.
Peng Chau and Hei Ling Chau belong to "double high" constituencies, while Lamma and Po Tai are constituencies with high turnout but less than 50% of voters.
To Kwa Wan North voters only 36% voter turnout only 65%
The favorable impression of the establishment system at the "double low" may stem from the "building site" of the DAB in Kowloon City. Some areas of Kowloon City do meet this standard. For example, Tokwawan North, which was won by the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) chairman Lee Tok Kwan, has 5,258 voters and 3,430 voters, with a turnout rate of 65.25%. The estimated population of this district is 14,682, which is 11.55% lower than the standard population base of 16,599, and the proportion of voters is only 35.81%.
In addition, the Hung Hom constituency in the same district was elected by the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, with 4,977 voters and 3,317 voting. The turnout rate was 66.69%. The estimated population of this district is 13,762, which is 17.09% lower than the standard population base of 16,599, and the proportion of voters is only 36.16%.
The Kowloon City Ai Jun Constituency was re-elected by the Zuo Huixiong of the People's Federation. The proportion of voters in the district was as high as 72.84%, and the turnout rate was 73.12%, which was higher than the average level in Hong Kong. (Zuo Huixiong facebook)
There were no shortage of voters in the constituencies and the voting rate broke 70%.
However, in the Kowloon City District, markedly different examples have been seen. Ai Jun was elected by the People's Democratic Alliance Zuo Huixiong, with 9,551 voters and 6,978 voting, with a turnout of 73.12%. The area has an estimated population of 13,113, which is 21% lower than the standard population base, and the proportion of voters is as high as 72.84%.
The Ai Jun constituency is not a special case. In fact, this situation also exists in many regions. North District Shengfu was elected by the Federation of Trade Unions Milwada, with 10,435 voters and 7,606 voters, with a turnout rate of 72.92%. The estimated population is 14,726, which is 11.28% lower than the standard population base, and the proportion of voters is 70.86%.
Successfully re-elected member of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, Mr. Ke Chongsheng, belongs to the Shengde constituency of Kwun Tong, with 12,843 voters and 8,905 voters voting, with a turnout rate of 69.36%. The estimated population of this district is 18,079, which is 8.92% higher than the standard population base, and the proportion of voters is 71.04%.
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Xie Weijun, the proportion of live voters is only 40%, but the turnout rate is nearly 73%
In addition, there are also a small number of constituents who are elected in the constituencies, but the turnout rate is not bad. For example, Lok Lok Wan Chai was elected by the independent formation Xie Weijun. The number of voters was 5,520 and 4,018 voted. The turnout rate was as high as 72.79%. The estimated population of this district is 13,755, which is 17.13% lower than the standard population base, and the proportion of voters is 40.13%.
Kwun Tong Antai was elected by Lin Wei, a constitutional public housing association, with 7,139 voters and 5,152 votes. The turnout rate was 72.24%. The area has an estimated population of 20,739 people, which is 24.94% higher than the standard population base, and the proportion of voters is 34.42%.
As a result, the faction formed by the constitutional faction has different factors, and it is difficult to summarize it as a low number of voters and a low turnout rate.
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