Political trial proceedings against Trump may actually be helping him politically

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(CNN) - At some point this Wednesday - perhaps quite late - the House of Representatives will vote on the accusation against Donald Trump of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, two charges related to his actions around the call with the president of Ukraine Volodymr Zelensky on July 25.

However, despite the fact that the Chamber is preparing for the historic vote, there is increasing evidence that the political trial procedures against the president may actually be helping him politically.

• LOOK: Minute by minute: the House of Representatives takes historic vote on Trump's political trial

Take the new Gallup poll published on Wednesday morning: it shows two things that have been going on since the Democrats of the House of Representatives, headed by President Nancy Pelosi, opened a formal investigation of political trial last October on the Trump's behavior with Zelensky:

1) Trump's job approval rating went from 39% to 45%

2) Trump's support for political trial and impeachment has been reduced from 52% to 46%.

These results largely affirm other known data during the last week that suggest that support for the political trial has been reduced. In a CNN survey conducted nationwide, which was published earlier this week, 45% said they supported the political trial and the impeachment of the president, compared with 50% who said the same in another CNN survey a mid-November. The recent survey also recorded that the opposition to the indictment and removal procedure was 46%, an increase of 4 points compared to the results of mid-November. In addition, CNN's “survey of surveys” - that is, an average of the six most recent national quality / credibility surveys conducted between December 4 and 15 - showed that 46% agreed with the political trial and recall, compared to 49% who did not.

• READ: Analysis: The 30 most striking phrases of the deranged letter from Donald Trump to Nancy Pelosi

Now, as I noted earlier, these numbers are not "good" for Trump, as he likes to proclaim on Twitter. Compared to the last presidents - including Bill Clinton, who in fact faced a political trial - a significantly larger part of the public favors Trump's impeachment process than he had ever registered in that way with respect to Clinton, Barack Obama or George W. Bush. In fact, Trump's current figures on the political trial are more similar to those of Richard Nixon in the spring of 1974. (The charges of political trial against Nixon were approved by the House of Representatives Judicial Commission, but were never submitted to vote because Nixon resigned before).

• MIRA: Democratic Congressman: We have to recognize that Trump is not an emperor

But what the trend line of recent weeks suggests is that the intense focus on the political trial has not hurt Trump: it has helped him marginally. The change in public opinion is slight, yes. And it may be temporary. But, for the moment, it is the kind of thing that should make Democrats a little (and maybe more than a little) nervous about the path they have chosen.

Remember this: Pelosi did not want to take the path of political judgment. He remained firm in his party during the summer as more and more Democratic members announced their support for a political trial investigation of Trump's conduct in connection with the investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller about Russian interference in the 2016 elections The concern of Pelosi, which he expressed publicly and privately, was that a partisan political trial, one without significant bipartisan support, would divide the country too much to be worthwhile.

This is exactly what Pelosi told The Washington Post on that same topic:

“The accusation is so divisive for the country that, unless there is something so convincing, overwhelming and bipartisan, I don't think we should take that path, because it divides the country. And it just isn't worth it. ”

• READ: A serious day in US history: Trump faces a political trial

That all changed in the fall, when an informant's complaints about Trump's actions came up in that July 25 call. It quickly became clear that Trump's behavior in the call exceeded the limit: Pelosi could no longer get in the way within the party to move towards the accusation against the president.

But, simply because Pelosi has accessed that inexorable force does not mean that his concerns about the politics of judgment have changed. What she knew then, and also now, is that the procedure is a creator of chaos in the US electorate. There is simply no certainty how voters, particularly the small number of independent and / or undecided voters, will react to all this.

And the first results - emphasis on the word "first" - have to worry the Democrats.

Political Judgment Political Judgment to Donald Trump Nancy Pelosi Democratic Party