The Camps, Supporters - and the Rain: The Complete Guide to Likud Primaries

After elections that divided the Likud into two camps and a series of media blitzes, allegations of dysfunctional activity and a skipping campaign between activist conferences, Benjamin Netanyahu and Gideon Sa'ar are sharpening knives for the opening of the polls tomorrow. What are the bets and how can the rainy forecasts affect the results? Update

The Camps, Supporters - and the Rain: The Complete Guide to Likud Primaries

In the latest news of the Likud's opening primaries for tomorrow's elections tomorrow morning (Thursday), Benjamin Netanyahu and Gideon Sa'ar are sharpening knives for the big battle and are anxiously following the synoptic map. Netanyahu will spend the last 24 hours in conferences and events around the country as he has done in the past two weeks, while Sa'ar will be primarily concerned with telephone persuasion: the goal of both - to reach as many Likud officials and persuade them to go out and vote despite the stormy weather that is expected to hit the country tomorrow.

Persuasion efforts will also continue tomorrow as the polls open at 8 a.m., with both sides trying to recruit as many dysfunctions as they can. According to popular Likud estimates, Netanyahu is a favorite forever, but the rainy forecasts may hurt voter turnout and leave his supporters at home. As a general rule, Sa'ar, which leads to a smaller and more organized camp, is considered to benefit from low voter turnout, while Netanyahu, who enjoys the support of free voters, is pushing for a higher turnout. Ahead of the polls, here is a brief summary and snapshot.

More in Walla! NEWS

Get into the last line of the campaign. Netanyahu and Saar (Photo: Sharon Revivo)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talks with Gideon Sa'ar at the end of a special Likud faction meeting to mark Begin's death. March 11, 2018 (Photo: Sharon Revivo, Walla System! NEWS)

Short history to date

Sa'ar, who for years was the most popular MK in the Likud, took time off from politics in 2014, returned in 2017 - shortly after Netanyahu's criminal investigations opened, and shortly after he was marked as trying to subvert him. Last year, Netanyahu began to fear that Sa'ar And President Rivlin, who is considered his associate, embroidered a "patch" plot to oust him, and tried hard to hurt him and his people in the last Likud primaries to the Knesset list last February. Despite his great efforts to undermine his support base, Sa'ar came in fifth place and even managed to win Michal Shir, A close associate in the Tel Aviv district faced the candidate Netanyahu supported.

In the first and second elections, the two declared a cease-fire, and Sa'ar took an active part in the Likud campaign, but Netanyahu's concerns did not dissipate. Two weeks after the September election, Netanyahu announced that he was considering holding lightning primaries for the Likud, and Sa'ar tweeted "I'm ready," but the initiative dropped from the episode at the same time and the filmmaking flipped. After the indictment against Netanyahu, Sa'ar was required to hold lightning primaries - even before the Knesset disbanded, claiming he could form a government and prevent elections, but Netanyahu managed to postpone the deal until the possibility of a government without him finally came off the table. At one point, he even considered canceling the primaries in general, but was eventually convinced that coping might be of benefit to him, and immediately after the Knesset dissipation, Cayman acted as soon as possible.

Small and organized camp. Storm at the opening of the primaries (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Gideon Sa'ar during Likud's Opening Election Conference, Hermitage Hall, Or Yehuda December 16, 2019 (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Some more history

Netanyahu has been in charge of the Likud continuously since the end of 2005, and in all the confrontations he has faced with a large majority - Silvan Shalom, Israel Katz, Moshe Feiglin and Danny Danon who dared to face him. The last time Likud officials trusted him was in late 2014, ahead of the 20th Knesset elections, and Netanyahu defeated Danny Danon in a large majority. On the one hand, after the 2015 election, he preceded the pre-election and secured his leadership in the 21st Knesset elections, but because no one voted for him, the primaries were canceled and he was also elected as the party's chairman. After the April election, he managed to confirm in the secretariat The Likud decided to cancel the primaries for Likud and the list, thus saving him from running for the 22nd Knesset.

Sa'ar is the only Likud leader to have challenged Netanyahu in the wake of his political failures over the past year, and thus, Likud-led primaries will be held tomorrow, as mandated by the party's constitution for the first time in five years.

Thanks to Saar, Netanyahu has rediscovered life outside of Facebook

Focuses on strengthening the Likud ethos. Netanyahu at Haifa's Primaries Event (Photo: Sharon Revivo)

PM Benjamin Netanyahu at Haifa Likud's Prime Ministerial Campaign Event, December 17, 2019 (Photo: Sharon Revivo, official website)

Cheerleaders in the stands and power groups

As befits a democratic battle at its best, in recent weeks the Likud has been divided between the Netanyahu camp and the Saar camp. The incumbent has succeeded in garnering public support from almost every Likud leader, and most of all the top five and tenth members, some of whom are staring at the succession battle the day after Netanyahu. Israel Katz and Miri Regev enlisted to lead Netanyahu's primaries headquarters, with every step of the way Activists in the national skipping campaign he is running for the primaries, Yariv Levin, Yoav Galant, Gila Gamliel and Avi Dichter, are also enthusiastic supporters of Netanyahu.

The last to join Netanyahu's supporters camp was Minister Gilad Arden, number 3 on the Likud list, who yesterday called on the officials to vote for Bibi and took sides. Now, Yuli Edelstein and Haim Katz are the only members of the Likud faction who did not take a public stand and remain on the fence. Behind the scenes, Edelstein-affiliated activists are helping the Netanyahu campaign, while Katz, who is very close to the storm, came to his conference and is considered to be supporting him.

Activists affiliated with him are helping Netanyahu's campaign. Edelstein (Photo: Michael Dimenstein, GPO)

President Reuben Rivlin and Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein in reinstatement of the mandate for the Cabinet to impose a Knesset chair on November 21, 2019 (Photo: Michael Dimenstein, GPO, image processing)

Took a side. Arden (Photo: Shlomi Gabay)

Minister of Public Security Gilad Arden at the Carmel disaster memorial December 17, 2019 (Photo: Shlomi Gabay)

On the other hand, only four of the current Likud MKs in the Knesset have joined the battle of Sa'ar: Yoav Kish, Sharan Hashalach, Michal Shir and Eti Atia. Meanwhile, almost all of the mayors, heads of councils, and heads of Likud branches across the country have been divided between Netanyahu Vassar, with the latter receiving strong support mainly from the mayor of Acre, Shimon Lankari, and Ramat Gan Mayor Carmel Shama.

The map of the major power groups and commanders in Likud was also divided into two. Sa'ar built on the support of the IAI staff, the power base of his close associate Haim Katz, the new Likudniks - and a disrespectful part of the commander in Judea Samaria. In each group, it is estimated that there are several thousand people, but Katz did not publicly call for support, most new Likudniks decided not to support him because he did not value Netanyahu's legal position, and the leaders of Judea Samaria were divided between him and Netanyahu and eventually there as well. We were given the right to vote. Netanyahu, on the other hand, has received the support of the "Kabbalah for the People" function in the past two weeks, as well as the blessing of Rabbi Mazuz, who each leads thousands of functionaries who should vote as one.

Accepted with high returns at each conference. Ohana (Photo: Shlomi Gabay)

Justice Minister Amir Ohana and Silk Nitzan Separation Ceremony, Jewish Border Patrol Jerusalem, December 18, 2019 (Photo: Shlomi Gabay)

Considered the one who supports the storm. Katz at primaries conference in Or Yehuda (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Haim Katz at the opening of Gideon Sa'ar's pre-Likud elections, Hermitage halls, Or Yehuda December 16, 2019 (Photo: Reuven Castro)

In the Saar camp, during the campaign, serious allegations were made against the Likud director, who detracted a number of voters from thousands of members identified with the new Likudniks and Saar, with the aim of hurting the election. In addition, the decision of the Central Election Commission not to allow voting at all branches but only at branches to which the associates function may also hurt a camp: many of its supporters were deployed at distant polls, and ordinary airline industry organizers who would vote at one polling station near their place of work would have to invest more The ballot note.

The campaigns and secret weapons

The two campaigns were mainly conducted on the ground, in a skipping campaign between branches and event halls. Sa'ar's campaign focused mainly on Netanyahu's political situation in light of the indictments and the fact that he is apparently blocked from forming a government, with the help of a series of polls showing that the right-wing bloc is growing. Netanyahu, for his part, focused primarily on his accomplishments and abilities, and on strengthening the Likud ethos that does not dissuade an incumbent leader, while other Likud officials did the black job for him and attacked Saar as a submarine member of Blue and White in an effort to overthrow Netanyahu's rule. Netanyahu rarely mentioned or addressed the storm in his speeches at conferences, and only this week, for the first time, made an official response to what his competitor was saying. After Sa'ar declared that if elected, he would run for Netanyahu's election as president, Netanyahu also attacked him as "aligned with the media and the left."

At Sa'ar at the conferences, MKs and activists stood, especially his wife, Geula Even-Sa'ar, who took an active and prominent part in the campaign. Even-Sa'ar took time out on TV and accompanied her husband across the country and in flashes of media interviews. She was greatly sympathized by his supporters and assisted him in positioning A couple image for the state leadership, just like the couple they are aiming to replace in Balfour.

Took an active and prominent part in the campaign. Geula Even Saar, left (Photo: Shlomi Gabay)

Yoav Kish and Geula Stone during a support conference at Gideon Sa'ar, Oranim Hall, Haifa, December 18, 2019 (Photo: Shlomi Gabay)

The star of the other party's primaries was Justice Minister Amir Ohana, who is greeted with high returns at every conference he comes to. Ohana's clashes with the Justice Department's leadership and the campaign that coincided with the battle for a deputy state attorney have greatly increased his visibility and popularity among Likud officials, who bear in mind the slogan: "The people demand legal justice."

Gambling and odds

It is widely believed that Netanyahu's Likud will win Saar a big difference. Anyone who has faced him in the past decade has received between 20-30% of the vote, so that is the starting point for Sa'ar, which is based on an entire camp that votes against Netanyahu anyway. If Sa'ar gains more than 30% of the vote, the result will place him in a good starting position for the next battle for Likud leadership after the end of the Netanyahu era, but the less he gets, it will be considered a blow to his status.