It is tantamount to a declaration of war: the US military has killed Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Brigades and Iran's second most powerful man, on Iraqi soil with an airstrike. The region is threatened by a dramatic escalation of violence - and the EU can do little more than watch helplessly.
The tone was set by Charles Michel, who spoke out as the first leading EU representative. The "cycle of violence, provocation and retaliation" in Iraq must be broken, the EU Council President said in a statement released on Friday afternoon. Iraq remains a "very fragile country", the region is now threatened by a "general flare-up of violence".
Video: The scenery in Baghdad after the attack on Soleimani
IRAQS SECURITY MEDIA CELL HANDOUT / EPA-EFE / REX
What was more interesting was what was not in Michel's statement: The President of the Council did not even try to explain what the EU could do to prevent a new war in the Middle East. At first, there was nothing to be heard about the drama in Iraq from the EU's foreign policy representative Josep Borrell. Only on Friday evening did the Spaniard call on everyone involved to "maximum restraint".
The fact that the EU remains rough is perhaps only logical - because it has not had much to report in the region since the Iran nuclear deal actually died. "Unfortunately, the EU has not succeeded in catching up on the nuclear deal after the United States' termination, nor has it been able to position itself as a mediator in Iraq," says Green MEP Hannah Neumann.
"It's hard to imagine that there is no proxy war in Iran now"
An EU diplomat puts it more clearly: "The Americans don't listen to us anyway." And the EU has practically nothing more to offer Iran since it has become clear that European companies do not want to participate in trying to ignore the new US sanctions against Iran. The basis for the nuclear agreement - the lifting of sanctions for Iranian good conduct - has thus disappeared.
"The current spiral of escalation has started with the termination of the nuclear agreement by the United States," said SPD MEP Dietmar Köster. US President Donald Trump made the second mistake by ordering Soleimani to be killed. This was a "disproportionate" response to Iran's recent attacks. "The worst case would be an armed conflict," said Koester.
But that's exactly what many fear in Brussels - it could happen now. "It is difficult to imagine that there will be no proxy war between the United States and Iran on Iraqi soil," said Neumann. "There is an acute danger that Iraq will become a second Syria." Other countries in the region could also be drawn into the conflict. "The escalation potential is enormous," says Neumann. "The Quds Brigades are present all over the Middle East."
"If necessary, the EU must face new sanctions"
The CDU security politician Michael Gahler fears that in extreme cases there could even be US attacks on Iran itself. "Iran will respond to the killing of Soleimani in some form," said Gahler. "For example, if a senior US representative is killed, I don't know where that would end. President Trump might even have the idea of bombing Tehran."
The EU's means of preventing such scenarios are manageable. An initiative by the Ombudsman Borrell - should there be one - "would have much greater impact if all EU countries joined it," says Green politician Neumann. SPD man Köster demands that the EU increase the pressure on Iran to "end its destabilizing policy in the region". If necessary, the EU would also have to threaten with new sanctions - "if Tehran makes the announcement of revenge actions".
Sure, it would risk the final death of the nuclear deal. "But it is a fundamental problem that Iran is still openly calling for the annihilation of Israel," said Köster. "The EU cannot close its eyes to that."
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