Iran launched a missile strike on Wednesday (January 8th) on bases sheltering American soldiers in Iraq. In the afternoon, no official report had yet been given by the United States. In total, 22 missiles fired in half an hour, at the same time that, five days earlier, in Baghdad, an American drone fire was shooting down Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
Can the escalation go as far as a frontal war between the United States and Iran, or a conflagration in the Middle East? According to geopolitical expert Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), this risk is limited.
After the Iranian strike last night, on bases of American soldiers in Iraq, in reprisal after the elimination of General Soleimani, is the war escalation inevitable? How far can she go?
BRUNO TERTRAIS. Inevitable, no. It is even possible that this is, at least temporarily, the end of the climb. As far as one can judge, the Iranian response has been relatively measured.
Measured?
Yes, there was no death on the American side. The whole question is whether the Iranians deliberately struck a base which they knew would be protected, prepared for an attack. Or if they ignored it, and therefore took the risk of killing American soldiers. It seems that the first hypothesis is the right one and that the Iranians have warned Iraq.
What exactly does this change?
Well, in the first case, it shows that the response has been well calibrated by the Iranians. Things may end there. Deterrence on both sides has been restored. And Iran "saved the honor". Climbing could therefore stop there.
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Couldn't Iran do less than this shot?
No, given the size and stature of the late General Soleimani, the regime of Ayatollah Khamenei could not do less in terms of response. Especially at a time when power is disputed.
What can we learn from this episode?
Iran has confirmed that it is receptive to deterrence. Deterrence, let us remember, this consists in preventing someone, leader or country, from committing an act by threatening him with serious reprisals if he commits it. Assuming the Iranians deliberately chose a calibrated response, this shows that Trump's threats have been effective ...
Clearly, you do not believe in a risk of conflagration, of war?
No one can know if this risk has been ruled out. Let's say there is a good probability that the situation will remain there for the time being.
But won't US President Donald Trump, unpredictable on his side, try anything else?
No, he has no reason to do so, since no American soldier was killed in this attack. Besides, Trump's reaction (Editor's note, his tweet saying “So far, all is well!”) Has been fairly moderate. Between the American president and the Iranian regime, certain interests are divided.
All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 8, 2020Is this land still dangerous?
Of course. In such hot crises, there is often a grain of sand, an event that can lead to irrational decisions. Imagine, for example, that a unit of the Guardians of the Revolution takes the initiative, on its own initiative, to assault and kill Americans. The war cycle would start again immediately.
Has this kind of grain of sand already happened?
Yes, more than once. Remember the famous formula of President Kennedy, whom he uttered at the height of the missile crisis between the United States and the USSR: "There is always a fool who did not receive the message". These words perfectly sum up the idea that the two main leaders may want to appease, an unfortunate initiative in times of high tension can always lead to conflagration.
President Trump, campaigning for re-election, couldn't wish to go further?
There would be no interest. He took risks, but for him the results are positive today. Indeed, he can boast of having eliminated two formidable enemies of America. The jihadist head of ISIS, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi recently. And now Iranian general Soleimani.