After the Iranian firing, on the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, of missile salvos on bases sheltering American soldiers in Iraq, the conflagration seemed at the first glance inevitable. A conflagration in the region, the Middle East under tension, even a direct confrontation between the regime of the mullahs of Tehran and the impetuous American president Donald Trump. However, over the course of Wednesday, the escalation seemed to remain measured. Several possible explanations for this.
Iran's “calibrated” response?
First, "the Iranian response itself seems calibrated," says geopolitical expert Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the FRS (Foundation for Strategic Research). Concretely, several missiles - 12 to 22 according to sources - struck two military bases. For the symbol, the strikes took place at the same time as the American drone fire which eliminated, five days earlier, the Iranian general Soleimani.
Calibrated response? If Iranian news sites close to the Pasdarans (guards of the Islamic Revolution) have spoken of 80 deaths on the side of the American army, neither Iraqi government sources nor, above all, American officials do not speak of a victim. Neither dead nor wounded American.
Result, on one side Ayatollah Khamenei, master of Iran, glorifies the "slap" inflicted on America, on the other Donald Trump quietly tweeted, early Wednesday: "So far, everything is fine". Later, during his neatly staged press conference at the White House, Trump, surrounded by the country's highest military leaders, with martial air and chest adorned with decorations, definitively reassured his people: " No American was injured. "
Result, according to Bruno Tertrais, geopolitical specialist, “there is a good probability that the situation will remain there for the moment. Iran has saved the honor, and Trump has no interest in a response to the response since no GI was killed. "
Is Trump playing de-escalation?
Several movements on the ground in Iraq confirm this concern for de-escalation. First, the US troops headquarters, located in Baghdad, is being evacuated. Helicopter ballets bound for Gulf countries take the "GIs" (editor's note: American soldiers) to safety - "redeployed", specifies the Pentagon, which refuses to speak of withdrawal - elsewhere. Donald Trump, in the middle of a campaign for his re-election, wants at all costs to avoid a military tragedy.
But, from the White House, he has camped on a firm position vis-à-vis Iran, his best enemy: "As long as I am president," he insisted, "Iran will never have the atomic bomb ". In the process, he announced new "immediate" economic sanctions against Iran. Sanctions, not missiles. To mark his advantage, posing as the winner, Trump assures that "Iran seems to be retreating". Way of saying, after these victimless missile launches, that his threats against 52 Iranian sites would indeed have paid off.
In fact, if the matter remains there, the American seems rather a winner. He prides himself indeed on having neutralized the two most formidable enemies of America: the jihadist chief of the IS (Islamic State), the Iraqi Al-Baghdadi, not long ago. And Iranian general Ghassem Soleimani, conductor of terrorist operations in the Middle East and beyond. While Obama treacherously slides his supporters, has eliminated only a retired terrorist, Bin Laden ...
Is there any risk of conflagration?
Especially not, unfortunately. In such a flammable region, anything can happen. "For example, imagine that a unit of the Guardians of the Revolution takes the initiative to assault and kill a group of American soldiers," says Bruno Tertrais. The cycle would start again. ” As President Kennedy said in the midst of the Cuban missile crisis, "there is always a fool who does not receive the message".
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For his part, MEP Arnaud Danjean, specialist in military matters, warned: “Many reassuring comments bet on a scenario of one everywhere, ball in the center , so de-escalation. Perhaps… but it is excessively rational while this crisis has been fueled for months by ideological considerations and resentments ”.
