Taiwan news
Written by: Ying
2020-01-11 20:57
Last updated: 2020-01-12 01:17The results of the 2020 Taiwan elections were announced tonight, and the current president and DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen successfully re-elected with a large number of votes. The current mayor of Kaohsiung and KMT ’s presidential candidate, South Korea ’s Yu, has failed to create a miracle despite the Korean wave and the popularity of the pre-election scene.
What about the election results? What factors contributed to the victory of Cai Yingwen and the defeat of Korean Yu? What will happen to cross-strait relations in the future? What should the failed KMT reflect on?
In response to the above problems, Hong Kong 01 interviewed Wu Junfei, the deputy dean of the Hong Kong Tianda Research Institute, as soon as the results of the Taiwan election were released. Mr. Wu Junfei is a PhD from the London School of Economics and Political Science. He was a Harvard Yenching scholar in the United States. He has been concerned about and studied Taiwan issues for a long time. The following is the interview record for readers' reference.
Hong Kong 01: What factors do you think contributed to the victory of Cai Yingwen and the defeat of Korean Yu?
Wu Junfei: The key to Cai Yingwen's victory is to successfully play three cards, including Hong Kong, Sovereign, and Value.
Tsai Ying-wen's victory in the 2020 Taiwan presidential election shows that she has indeed achieved results by operating Hong Kong cards, sovereignty cards, and value cards. (AFP)
Hong Kong 01: Although Tsai Ing-wen's polls were ahead of the election, she did not have the popularity of South Korea. This made many people think that the situation in this Taiwan election is very weird and it is difficult to determine who wins. As a result, after the election results were released, Cai Yingwen took a big lead. What did this contrast between pre-election, polls and the scene of the campaign indicate?
Wu Junfei: The Taiwan election results prove that there is a huge gap between the scene and the real facts. Under normal circumstances, polls are more reliable than intuition.
Hong Kong 01: Tsai Ing-wen's support rate was sluggish during the "Nine in One" elections in Taiwan more than a year ago, and the opinion polls were clearly behind those of South Korea's Yu et al. The Taiwan society's anti- "one country, two systems" and anti-China sentiments have allowed the support rate to counterattack. Now that Tsai Ing-wen's victory in elections has shown that her anti- "one country, two systems" and anti-China sentiments have achieved results? What do you think of the public opinion in Taiwanese society?
The pre-election scene was so popular that the Korean Yu, which once caused a Korean wave, failed to create a miracle. (Reuters)
Wu Junfei: Judging from Tsai Ing-wen's current victory, she has been working on the issue of reunification and playing Hong Kong. Now it seems to be effective. The election results show that it will take a long time for the people of Taiwan to accept "one country, two systems" in the mainstream.
Hong Kong 01: What do you think of the impact of the Hong Kong issue on this election in Taiwan?
Wu Junfei: Tsai Ing-wen used the slogan "Hong Kong today, Taiwan tomorrow" to play the Hong Kong card, which aroused anti- "one country, two systems" sentiment in Taiwanese society and affected the election results. This shows that the Hong Kong issue has a negligible impact on the Taiwan election. Considering that the current situation in Hong Kong is still full of uncertainties, it is estimated that the Hong Kong issue will be fermented for a long time in the Taiwan elections. The mainland's counterattack on the cultural propaganda this time seems old-fashioned and weak, and it has shaken the confidence of the people of Taiwan in "one country, two systems." For the mainland, it is imperative to make clear the "two-system Taiwan plan."
Hong Kong 01: After winning the election, will Tsai Ing-wen have a stronger attitude towards the mainland in the next four years? What will happen to cross-strait relations?
Wu Junfei: Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party may let go of promoting "de- Chineseization " and strive to lead Taiwan away from the mainland. In the past four years, cross-strait relations have shown a drastic decline, and cross-strait relations will face more challenges in the future.
Hong Kong 01: How do you think Beijing will respond to the situation in Taiwan and the development of cross-strait relations after Tsai Ing-wen ’s victory?
Wu Junfei: There should not be much change in the mainland's Taiwan policy. The next big probability is still stability. At the same time, it may seriously reflect and discuss new thinking, especially on the issue of Taiwan and mainland sovereignty. . For the "two-system Taiwan plan", the mainland is currently only giving an exit number. In the future, more consideration must be given to how to implement it.
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Hong Kong 01: In the past few years, many people have noticed the decline of the Kuomintang in Taiwan society. The appearance of South Korean Yu led many people to think that the Kuomintang might rise again, but South Korean Yu still lost the election. For a long time, the KMT has often been criticized for various problems, including internal and external activists, divided political culture, lack of newcomers and young people, and lack of core discourse. What should the Kuomintang reflect on? Does the Kuomintang's defeat in this election herald an increasingly waning KMT in Taiwan? Is there any possibility that the Kuomintang will return to power in the future?
Wu Junfei: This election once again shows that the Kuomintang has at least two major disadvantages, that is, over- eliteness and interest grouping. The former leads to civilian dissatisfaction, which is worse than the DPP; the latter leads to reform difficulties, which is not as rapid as the DPP's transformation. In the past so many years, the Kuomintang has failed to achieve transformation. Unlike the Communist Party and the DPP, the Communist Party has been transforming. For example, the Communist Party has transformed into a popular national elite by proposing and implementing the "three represents." Of course, the Kuomintang can make a comeback, but the premise is that the DPP is broken up, and it seems that it is hopeless in the short term.
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