UN estimates: By the end of the year - Iran's enrichment of uranium will suffice for nuclear bomb

Uranium enrichment brings Iran closer to a nuclear bomb, but Hezbollah has failed to establish an accurate missile production infrastructure. Assad is not in a hurry to seek a confrontation with Israel, but the IDF is monitoring the establishment of jihad in the Golan. Meanwhile, in Gaza - Hamas is interested in the arrangement. The Intelligence Division's annual assessment is revealed

UN estimates: By the end of the year - Iran's enrichment of uranium will suffice for nuclear bomb

The assassination of Qods Force Qasim Suleimani by the United States altered the IDF estimates, but also created opportunities to reshape reality in the five different systems managed by Israel. The Intelligence Division's (AMN) annual assessment of 2020 indicates that Suleimani's death , Who was an influential figure in Iran in particular and in the Middle East in general, strengthened US deterrence in the region and undermined Iran's subsistence engines.

AMN's annual intelligence assessment presented a low likelihood of war by Israel's enemies in 2020. The likelihood of response in the northern arena, as a result of action attributed to Israel, was slightly higher, with readiness for risk to war. The UN emphasized that the elimination of Suleimani restricts the situation. In the short term, but its future implications in the longer term - are unclear. At the same time, the uranium enrichment rate is setting a possible target for Iran to reach a nuclear bomb.

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Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at Tehran Army Day Parade, September (Photo: Reuters)

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at Tehran Army Day Parade, September 22, 2019 (Photo: Reuters)

Iran: Progress in weapons development and the erosion of Quds force

Of the five systems that Israel manages, the most prominent is against Iran. The mapping of the Iranian strategy to create defense and attack mechanisms shows that in recent years the Islamic Republic has designed Iraq as a protection against land invasion. Another significant component of Iran's defense is the nuclear project, which is intended to deter countries from facing it.

In addition, Iran is conducting an effort to establish fire capabilities in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, as well as Lebanon through Hezbollah, to exert pressure and deter Iranian regime opponents. This effort not only takes place on land, but also on the maritime axis.

The coming year will be very challenging for the Iranian regime, which will have to decide whether it is in a hurry to produce a nuclear bomb and is completely out of the agreement signed with the powers in 2015, and how it will deal with public protests against it across the state. Another challenge they will face in Tehran is budget management, which before the imposition of sanctions was $ 115 billion, of which 65% of oil revenues, while after the sanctions the percentage of oil revenues was only 10%.

The liquidation - restricts the situation in the short term. Protest in Istanbul against Suleimani killing (Photo: Reuters)

Protest in Istanbul against killing of Iranian Kos force commander Kasem Suleimani January 5, 2020 (Photo: Reuters)

Tehran will also have to decide how to continue the friction with the United States and the rest of the countries, with the backdrop of the US presidential campaign and an election campaign soon to begin in Iran as well. One of the worrying signs for the Iranian regime is a significant decline in the importance of religion in the eyes of citizens, as part of the harsh criticism of the regime.

At this point, Iranians enrich 850kg of enriched uranium at 4%. According to the current rate, the UN estimates that they will reach 1,300kg in the spring of 2020, at 4%, and in the fall of 2020 to 1,300kg. At 90% - a measure sufficient for one nuclear bomb.

The next step will be the development of weapons, which can take about two years, provided that intelligence agencies around the world monitor and worry about the process. If the Iranians choose to act in secret, it will be difficult to determine their schedules, especially if they embed new enrichment in the enrichment process that will accelerate the pace and quality of enrichment. According to UN estimates, Iranians keep enrichment rates low, but warn that the most common weapons projects are the covert, rather than the visible ones, to evade intelligence organizations.

Assessment in Israel: Suleimani's assassination will hurt Iran's establishment process in Syria

Tehran will have to decide how to deal with the protests against him. Protest against regime, this week (Photo: AP)

Iranian demonstrations against the government overthrowing the Ukrainian plane and the dead (Photo: AP)

The IDF also estimates that the Iranians are not completely breaking the tools, but are accumulating possible cards for future negotiations. Exposing the Iranian nuclear archive has indicated progress in the weapons sector at a better level than the previous estimates in the IDF. In addition, Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei will be required to make a decision on the budget, Iranian military activity and Quds Force, foreign and domestic policy, the continuation of the nuclear project and the country's military industries.

It is believed that Suleimani's assassination - defined as the "father of resistance" - has eroded the power of Quds force against states and organizations, including Russia and Hezbollah, which will now consider its steps and will not rush to implement Iran's radical policies that expose Lebanon to the offensive. Nasrallah's subordination to Suleimani was mainly due to the influence of the liquidated commander, who was responsible for transferring the funds to Hezbollah.

The Israeli security system has yet to decide whether Nasrallah was in favor of the missile project or whether it was Suleimani who was complicating Hezbollah and exposing it to attacks. Now, the question arises as to whether Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Houthis will continue to have close ties with Quds force under the new leader - Ismail Khan.

Iraq: There is still no clear decision on an American retreat

In recent years, Iraq has become a vital interest in Iranian national security. Accordingly, Suleimani spent most of his time in the neighboring country in order to influence the pro-Iranian Shiite militias and the Iraqi parliament and government. Despite recent publications, the IDF does not recognize a clear United States decision to leave Iraq.

Qulimani-led Quds force has also invested in Yemen, using unmanned aerial vehicles for 1,650 km - which is not enough to reach Israel, as well as air defense systems, seashells, ground missiles, precision missiles and thousands of QK missiles M, including command and control systems. According to UN estimates, the force in Yemen will not rush to avenge Suleimani's death because of the new order that may be created in the region as a result of the desire of both parties to avoid war.

Suleimani invested in the neighboring country. Celebrations in Tehran to attack US bases in Iraq this week (Photo: Reuters)

Celebrations on Tehran streets after missile launches at US forces bases in Iraq, January 8, 2020 (Photo: Reuters)

Syria: Arms production is not yet a threat to Israel

Another campaign is underway in Syria. The country that opened a civil war in 2011 has not yet stabilized. Therefore, President Bashar Assad is not expected to rush to seek clashes with Israel. Instead, he will be mainly concerned with stabilizing his situation on the Turkish border and restoring territories occupied by him by rebel forces in the country.

Hundreds of US military soldiers are still seated in Syria - in al-Tanf, the eastern state and oil well areas - in addition to 9,000 Russian soldiers. Islamic State (ISIS) activists are challenging the Syrian army, which is assisting tens of thousands of militia members who support a regime most of them Syrian, and thousands of whom are also active in Hezbollah. In addition, the country also has 800 Iranian activists, but also from Iraq, Indonesia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and other countries.

His top priority - Idlib and the Rebels. Assad (Photo: AP)

Syrian President Bashar Assad, November 15, 2019 (Photo: AP)

However, Syria's military estimates are restoring its military industry, with emphasis on rockets, missiles and precision missiles. The chemical weapons research and development process is also advanced, but the production process is not estimated to be sufficiently advanced to pose a threat to the State of Israel.

In the meantime, the IDF estimates that the process does not require a change in the Israeli defense's premise. At this point, Assad is mainly handling the northern Idlib district, and the headaches it produces for the Turkish army after it has occupied significant areas of the country.

At the same time, the UN is monitoring the Golan Heights together with the Northern Command, which is also concentrating on ISIS forces. Hezbollah and Hamas are also present in the area, and recently - even in Islamic Jihad, a process of consolidation in the Golan Heights has begun. A process of negotiating a deal with Israel, but currently his top priority is restoring control of Syria's territories, with an emphasis on the Turkish border and fighting against the jihadist terrorists.

Lebanon: Hezbollah will try to avoid unnecessary friction

In Lebanon, Hizbullah still constitutes the most significant direct and indirect force that threatens the back of the State of Israel. Hizbullah's ongoing security forces along the border do not pose an immediate threat, but only in a state of war.

The most significant threat to the Israeli home front. Nasrallah

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in a speech on the assassination of Kassem Suleimani, January 5, 2020 (Photo: official website)

The failed Lebanese economy, with a quarter of the youth unemployed in the country, also has an effect on the internal political situation, despite Hizbullah's efforts to stabilize the government and parliament. Public criticism of the regime has not waned. Hezbollah is estimated to try to differentiate itself from the radical axis the day after Suleimani to avoid unnecessary friction.

According to UN estimates, Hezbollah and Iran were unable to establish an accurate missile production base in Lebanon. Exact missiles smuggled into Lebanon, within a radius of 10-20 meters, are not operational at this time.

The Palestinians: In the Judea and Samaria are being prepared for the next day or in the balance, in Gaza - for the regulation

At the same time, the Palestinian campaign is underway for the day following Abu Mazen. At least according to UN estimates, in the coming year, the Palestinian Authority will continue its political campaign against Israel, while outright violating Israel without breaking the tools.

The discourse on Abu Mazen's legacy is at its peak and creates a potential for escalation. Palestinian officials see themselves as claiming the crown, but there are senior officials like Jibril Rajoub, Tawfiq Tirawi and Muhammad Dahlan who are also using armaments to consolidate their status and fortify their power.

Palestinian officials see themselves as claiming the crown after him. Abbas (Photo: Reuters)

PA President Abu Mazen during the funeral of former Fatah senior in Ramallah December 4, 2019 (Photo: Reuters)

The 2019 terrorist test reveals that the number of fatalities has dropped, but the number of casualties has remained steady. According to the UN estimates, Hamas continues to target terrorism from the Gaza Strip in Judea and Samaria, but through the management of wide contact with terrorist activists rather than individual contact, which created the feeling of a multiplicity of terrorist infrastructure.

In the Gaza Strip, the trend is actually a move towards the series. Hamas is wary of war and wants to improve the situation on the street to maintain the regime's stability and prevent security deterioration as far as possible. However, in changing situations, he will not hesitate to conduct short battle days with Israel. It is estimated that as long as the relaxation process serves his interests, with emphasis on his continued survival, he will continue the process.

Hamas activists in Gaza (separate from prisoners and missing persons). Hamas activists in Gaza (Photo: Reuters)

Hamas fighters pray during a military display against Israel in the southern Gaza Strip on November 11, 2019 (Photo: Reuters)

Hamas negotiates reassurance, but separately from the issue of prisoners and missing persons, in contrast to the Israeli position. Therefore, the chances of completing the process are low. At the same time, the governing body continues to intensify its aerial defense systems, ground-to-ground missiles, rockets, and underground. This is in addition to the potential that exists in factions in Gaza that are defined as regime opponents.