While Naftali Bennett wants to rush forward and annex everything, the defense establishment wants to balance it and advance thoughts on actions • The goal of the IDF: to take steps that reduce risks as much as possible

Reactions to the century plan came immediately: local demonstrations in Judea and Samaria and an initial drip of rockets from Gaza, and against reinforcing IDF forces in both decrees. Nobody has any idea how the Palestinians will react. It is doubtful whether they have themselves. The plan in itself does not look like a game changer: annexation moves on the ground - certainly yes.

Defense Minister Naphtali Bennett called on the annex everything that was given at the upcoming government meeting so that "the opportunity of the century will not be missed." At the same time, he announced, a team will be set up to examine the implications of the agreement and its implications. This is a team that is mainly security agencies, and will also have representatives from other relevant government offices. On behalf of the IDF, the head of the planning department, Major General Amir Abulafia, will be led by him.

The constant friction creates endless opportunities for terror. IDF soldiers hitchhike near Givat Assaf outpost // Photo: Tzahi Miriam

The IDF and the Shin Bet clearly prefer that team work advance government decisions. "First think, then act," a senior official said. The advantage is clear: it will be possible to take steps that increase chances and reduce risks. For example, to harness Arab states to move or coordinate moves with Jordan, and even to formulate behind-the-scenes agreements with Palestinian officials, and to regulate the lull in the Gaza Strip to give reasons for not (temporarily) entering the immediate escalation cycle.

It is doubtful that Bennett will suspend those voices. He is in an election period, which is his clear political ticket. Inside the room, he will, as always, be more considerate. In general, he gets a lot of praise for his seriousness and depth of thought in discussions. The problem is in his public statements and tweets he publishes (usually early in the morning), which are partly perceived as childish and defiant. They earned him the title of "Rashad" - enthusiastic and ambitious, but not yet enough.

Those who are supposed to balance it are Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi and Shin Bet Chief of Staff Nadav Argaman, along with the Coordinator of Government Operations in the Occupied Territories, Major General Kamil Abu Rukon. The Shin Bet Chief of Staff and the Chief of Staff (then Capricorn Eisenkott) were the ones who prevented the summer of widespread escalation and severe political turmoil as they halted the intention to place magnometers on the Temple Mount. The current challenge is much greater: not to stop but to advance, in a way that minimizes damage.

It will require stars to dive to Judea, a lesser-known segment for him. In Gaza, he was a division commander, Northern Command commander, Judea and served as a paratroopers commander on a defensive wall. He has, of course, touched her many times since Mainly), but Yosh requires professionalism, and it would do well to surround himself at this critical juncture with professionals. \

On the General Staff, he has two of those in "pull out" - champions Tamir Yadei and Lior Carmeli, who commanded the Judea Division - and can also consult three well-known citizens, former Central Command Nitzan Alon and Ronnie Nome, and former operations coordinator Polly Mordechai. Kochavi also extended for the fifth year the term of Navy commander Eli Sharvit, on the grounds of "operational needs." I wonder if this reasoning will also serve to extend the term of the Central Command's Maj. Gen. Nadav Padan, who is expected to finish his position this year.

When and whether the breast will come out of the bottle

In the security system, it is customary to equate the Palestinian arena to Ginny - the demon in the bottle. From the moment he leaves, it takes three to five years for him to return. The problem is that no one knows when it will come out, and what exactly. That is why, once again this year, the AMN warned of a "strategic turnaround" in the Palestinian arena. This happened even before the centennial program was published, and is now accepting a change.

The relatively quiet security reality of recent years in Judea and Samaria's intense preoccupation with the Iranian threat have forgotten the potential of the Palestinian arena. The constant friction between millions of Palestinians and hundreds of thousands of Israelis creates endless opportunities for terror. That can take suicide bombing off the cuff wholesale. The GSS and IDF's intense activity keeps organized terror on low fire. This is also the reason for the low number of casualties in the attacks (5 killed in 2019).

The problem would be if the Palestinian public went out into the street. Spontaneously or organized. Clashes with IDF forces will lead to casualties. Casualties will lead to more clashes. The IDF will be charged with reinforcing forces. About 20 battalions were operating in Judea and Samaria until the publication of the agreement. During the peak period, there were more than 40 battalions. The gap between the numbers allowed the IDF to train in recent years, mainly for the war in the north. Escalation in the West means more forces, less training, a drop in alertness in the north, and perhaps a reserve recruitment for its financial and economic consequences.

Popular terror has its advantages (in quantity) and its disadvantages (its damage is limited). The concern is that the authority will release its security mechanisms from the commitment to fight terrorism. The cooperation between the mechanisms and the Israeli security system is excellent, and saves many Israeli lives. The possibility that the weapons of the apparatus - which were trained, financed and equipped by the US, which General on its own accompanies them today - will also be used for attacks, from a sleeping apartment in Israel; surely if they are joined by tens of thousands of Tanzim activists in the West Bank.

A combination of popular terrorism and organized activity, certainly if the terrorist organizations also succeed in launching large-scale terrorist attacks - is the scenario of extremism (with the permanent potential that the Gaza Strip will join the fighting as well). It is doubtful whether Abu Mazen wants him, but reality on the ground may have its own dynamic.

The PA has stepped aside

Immediate security preparedness for escalation in the field is being carried out in parallel with preparation for the implementation of the agreement. Alongside the understandable potential of applying sovereignty, there are also quite a few question marks. The first of these concerns the removal of military government over the annexed territories and the application of Israeli law to them. It is unclear to anyone what will happen, for example, on roads in Judea and Samaria. Who will give security to Israelis who travel there? Today the IDF is responsible for this.

The Central Command's champion is the sovereign, and the army is the solution. But the IDF does not operate within the borders of Israel; the police do. It will require legislative change, or organizational change - for example, a significant increase in Border Police. And there are many other issues, from construction and infrastructure, to money and work. Everyone will now require incandescent and torture.

The PA, which was previously a partner in such discussions, has already made it clear that it is not part of the game. Even if she wanted to, some of the conditions she faced were unrealistic: she had no ability to take over Gaza and disarm Hamas. In any case, Israel does not really want it to return there, so as not to create a territorial continuity between the Strip and the West Bank.

It requires Israel to do everything alone. Paradoxically, those who previously opposed unilateral measures and a Palestinian state now support them, and those who support peace now oppose it. Absolutely strange times, with opportunities - but also dangers - on their side.