Mortgage: more than 100,000 households excluded in 2020?

Notice to borrowers: getting a home loan looks less easy in 2020 than in 2019. Nothing to do with a rise in interest rates, even if professionals point to a very slight increase at the start of the year. No, the fault lies in the restrictive measures imposed on banks by the authorities to avoid any overheating of the real estate market and which could have a strong impact on the activity of bankers and brokers.

The first to sound the alarm, economics professor Michel Mouillart, who compiles the data for the Household Credit Observatory, an organization funded by the French Banking Federation (FBF). "Certainly, at least 100,000 and up to 130,000 households will be mechanically excluded by these measures from access to property this year, or nearly 10% of transactions carried out in 2019 (Editor's note: 1.3 million at total) , he estimates.

Respect the credit duration and 33% debt criteria

And the production of new credits should be impacted by 10 to 15 billion euros. Knowing that it represents 185 billion euros per year ( Editor's note: excluding credit repurchases) , this represents 8% of production, "insists the expert, based on the restrictions issued by the High Council for Financial Stability ( HCSF) chaired by the Minister of Finance Bruno Le Maire.

This authority responsible for monitoring and preserving the stability of the French financial system published in mid-December a series of recommendations calling on banks to strictly comply in 2020 with the key conditions for granting credit: a credit period of 25 years maximum and a debt ratio, called the “effort rate”, of 33% maximum of the borrower's net income.

The authority leaves the banks a little leeway: 15% of their credits can go beyond these two rules. "Access to mortgage will be clearly maintained," says the Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau. Questioned by the Parisian, he estimated the figures on the number of loans threatened without "any foundation", and called for cleaning up and "stopping" the "drift" of a monthly payment beyond 33% income received.

“If we did not remind the banks of common sense rules, we would tomorrow have a real risk of over-indebtedness of the households concerned. Let’s not wait to see the problem or the financial crisis arise: it would be too late to act, ”he warns. But these words hardly convince brokers already faced with loan refusals.

"The modest incomes will have to increase their contribution"

"We have recently been refused two smic borrowers' files," says Sandrine Allonier, head of banking partnerships with Vousfinancer. Banks are also more attentive to the borrower's sector of activity and surface maintenance or catering are considered risky. For Meilleurtaux.com, the stake is social. "To gain access to property, modest incomes will have to increase their personal contribution, but it still has to be possible," warns Maël Bernier, her spokesperson.

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And it is precisely the fear of Michel Mouillart who already anticipates a domino effect on the economy: “40,000 to 50,000 acquisitions supposed to be the subject of compliance work will ultimately not be the subject because their buyers will have to favor the capital injection so that their file passes ... Which means that these works, if they take place, will be financed by a consumer credit, more expensive and at risk ... In the end, everyone loses . "