Whether because of rivalry with Hamas or because of Tehran's directives - the organization is trying to torpedo any attempt to advance • Baha'i Abu Alta's successors turn out to be as brazen as he is • Interpretation

• Rocket fire from Gaza to Ashkelon // Photo: AFP

The wild rocket attack on the western Negev and the Gaza envelope has put Israel in an uncomfortable corner at an uncomfortable timing. Contrary to her stated desire for calm in the South, she is forced to act, but still with a clear intention not to break the tools and be drawn into broad escalation on the eve of the elections.

Photo: Tal Nusoyev, Sderot Online

This time too, Islamic Jihad is responsible for the mess. Just like all previous times in the past year and a half (and the evening of the previous September election), the organization is trying to torpedo any attempt at progress between the parties. Whether it comes from internal rivalry with Hamas, from the organization's natural anarchism or from its Iranian patron, the result is one: Islamic Jihad is currently the source of all evil in Gaza.

Whoever thought that the assassination of Baha Abu Alta in November would calm the organization, has been sanctioned in recent days. His successors turned out to be just as nervous and impudent. In spite of Egypt's apparent reassurance efforts, the organization continued its attempted attacks. Last week, a first terrorist squad was eliminated on the fence in the southern Gaza Strip, and yesterday morning a second squad was eliminated as it tried to place a powerful explosive device.

The rocket fire last night was a response to these events. Officially, Jihad claims to have reacted to the "humiliation" following the IDF's collection of one terrorist's body. And bodies. The difference yesterday was that the fighting between the IDF and the Palestinians, who tried to prevent the taking of the bodies, was filmed and aired.

It was unclear whether the shooting took place contrary to Hamas's opinion or while turning a blind eye. Following the assassination of Baha'a Abu Alta, Hamas allowed Islamic Jihad to fire and respond, but refrained from joining the shooting itself. Hamas was also not part of the rocket launching into Israeli territory yesterday, and its conduct in the next few hours will largely set things up for the future. If left out of combat, the fire is likely to fade quickly.

It will also depend to a large extent on the nature of the Israeli response. No one in Israel wants to be drawn into a widespread operation whose future is unclear on the eve of the elections, but on the other hand, the events of yesterday cannot be left unresponsive: not only because of the elections, but first and foremost for the deterrence that the IDF finds difficult to maintain for a long time against Islamic Jihad.

So the question last night was not whether Israel would respond, but how, and especially how much. The main target is likely to be Islamic Jihad, but the dilemma in security consultations was whether to include Hamas in the targets as responsible for the Gaza Strip, or leave it outside so as not to drag it into combat against its will. Since the main Israeli interest was and remains quiet in the Gaza Strip and avoiding widespread escalation, an (overt and covert) effort will likely be made to try to close the event as quickly as possible with Hamas, although this will also be affected by the targets being attacked and the number of casualties in the Gaza Strip.

Hamas may be expected to do so because of its stated desire for calm. In recent days, the organization has received a basket of benefits - a renewal of the fishing space and an increase in the number of workers allowed to work in Israel to 7,000 - and this week it is expected to receive another dose of Qatari money (which, as revealed, Israel was a major partner in its organization). The escalation now means a renewal of the benefits, and by extension, the situation in the Gaza Strip - the complete opposite of Hamas's interest.

Those who are always called on to calm the spirits will be the Egyptians, as well as the UN delegation to the Gaza Strip. They are likely to have begun talks last night, but will be able to advance seriously only after the parties have concluded the current round of reactions. Even then - as we have seen time and time again - these will be The girls in the collar are very limited, the Gaza finger is very easy on the trigger and will not hesitate to press it again in the near future.