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Editor's Note: Peter Bergen is a national security analyst at CNN and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. His most recent book is entitled: "Trump and his generals: the cost of chaos." The opinions expressed in this comment are yours. See more opinion articles on CNN.
(CNN) - So far, President Donald Trump has been lucky. During his first three years in office there has been no major crisis compared to those faced by his predecessors.
Nothing comparable to the Cuban missile crisis has occurred (John Kennedy); not a war in Vietnam (Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon); not a hostage crisis in Iran (Jimmy Carter); not an invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviets (Carter and Ronald Reagan); or an invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein (George HW Bush); or al-Qaeda suicide bombings targeting two US embassies and an American warship (Bill Clinton); or attacks like those of September 11 (George W. Bush), or global financial crisis (Barack Obama).
The closest Trump has been to a crisis has been with Iran, largely created by himself, after he retired from the Iranian nuclear agreement two years ago and fueled tensions with that country.
Now comes the Covid-19 or new coronavirus, an important crisis that combines elements of Hurricane Katrina, a natural event that could end the life of a considerable number of Americans, and also elements of the great recession of 2008, due to the repercussions economic virus. Both in the supply chains and in the trust of consumers and companies, they are very worrying.
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Some presidents are at the height of a crisis. Kennedy skillfully avoided a possible nuclear war with the Soviets during the Cuban missile crisis, while George HW Bush assembled a powerful international coalition to expel Saddam from Kuwait. And George W. Bush responded quickly to the September 11 attacks by overthrowing the Taliban government in Afghanistan and destroying much of Al Qaeda. (Two years after September 11, Bush also made the disastrous decision to invade Iraq.) Obama skilfully navigated the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Other presidents fared worse when faced with a crisis. In 1980 Carter led the deeply flawed effort to free the American hostages detained in Iran, the fiasco known as Desert One, and contributed to his presidency being limited to a single term. Johnson was overwhelmed by the carnage in Vietnam and had no plausible plan to get out of the war, so he decided not to run for re-election in 1968.
In the early days, Trump has not lived up to the coronavirus crisis. And there are reasons to worry about whether you can do it, as the crisis underscores eight of your key failures as a leader.
First, Trump never does the homework. As I report in my book, "Trump and his generals," in early 2017, former Trump chief strategist Steve Bannon told Trump's former national security adviser, HR McMaster, that Trump never studied an issue: "Trump is A guy who never goes to a class. He never followed a curriculum. He never buys a book. Never take notes. Basically, the night before the final exams comes after partying all night, a cup of coffee is served, take your notes, memorize what you have to memorize. Enter at eight o'clock in the morning and get the qualification you need. That is why he doesn't like teachers. He doesn't like to be taught. ”
Related to Trump's first failure is his second: he always believes he knows more than experts on a given topic. During his presidential campaign, for example, Trump said he knew more about the fight against ISIS than the generals leading the fight, an absurd claim since Trump had avoided military service in Vietnam and his knowledge of ISIS and the Middle East was no more deep than an average newspaper reader.
Third, Trump trusts his own instinct. This could work in a real estate deal in Manhattan, where Trump knows the players and the market, but go with his instinct to deal with a complex crisis when homework is not done or experts are heard, it is unlikely that produce relevant knowledge or a coherent policy.
On Wednesday, at a White House press conference, Trump said the coronavirus was less lethal than the flu. Sanjay Gupta of CNN corrected him. In fact, the coronavirus seems to be much more deadly than the flu.
Fourth, Trump has increasingly surrounded himself with a team of acolytes who will not challenge him. When he took office, Trump assembled a cabinet that included McMaster, former Secretary of Defense James Mattis, former Chief of Staff John Kelly, former Chief Economic Advisor Gary Cohn and former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, all of whom would challenge Trump on issues such as remaining in the nuclear agreement with Iran, the need to maintain good relations with NATO, the merits of free trade and the imperative to stop approaching Vladimir Putin.
They have all left a long time ago, and have been replaced by men like Texas Republican Rep. John Ratcliffe, whom Trump has just nominated to be his Director of National Intelligence despite the fact that Ratcliffe's previous nomination for the same job failed. Due to his few qualifications for the position and some fake additions he would have made to his resume.
Ratcliffe's main qualification for the supervisory work of the 17 US intelligence agencies At a time when Trump's team faces its first real crisis, it seems to be its unwavering loyalty to the president.
His predecessor, Dan Coats, testified publicly last year that Iran adhered to the terms of the nuclear agreement, which deeply enraged Trump. It is hard to imagine Ratcliffe saying truths in public that do not fit Trump's preconceived ideas.
Similarly, Trump elected Vice President Mike Pence to lead the coronavirus effort. Pence's main qualification for work seems to be his adoration, like a puppy, for the Great Leader. As has been widely pointed out, despite Trump's claims that Pence is a kind of public health guru, when Pence was governor of Indiana he opposed a plan to deliver sterilized and free needles to drug addicts at a time when that HIV was advancing rampant among drug users in their state. Two months passed and after praying, Pence finally relented and allowed the needles to be distributed, which dramatically reduced the spread of HIV.
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Fifth, it is difficult for the public to believe a president who has made more than 16,000 false or misleading statements in his first three years in office, according to the "Washington Post," at a time when the administration desperately needs public confidence. U.S. .
What happens if Trump needs to make some difficult decisions about who exactly quarantines? We have already seen the Italian government completely cordon off the cities in the north of the country. And an important Italian city, Milan, has now stopped almost completely. Could Trump have to make similar decisions? And will you believe what you say to explain those decisions?
Sixth, Trump always blames the messenger for the news he doesn't like, and he's been doing that a lot when it comes to the coronavirus. In fact, organizations such as CNN and the “New York Times” and many others have taken real risks to cover the outbreak of the virus in China and elsewhere and should be commended for doing what they are supposed to do: gather and spread the word. knowledge that is in the public interest.
Seventh, Trump is the reverse of President Harry Truman. Money never stops at Trump's desk. If things go well, he is always willing to take credit: the stock market goes up, it's because of Trump; the stock market went down, it's due to the media and the Fed. If things go wrong, it's always someone else's fault. Pagination Mike Pence! Trump's propensity to pass the ball was obvious the first week of his presidency when Trump approved a risky anti-terrorist operation by the US Navy SEAL team. UU. in Yemen. A member of the SEAL was killed during the mission and the commander in chief quickly and publicly blamed his own generals for the loss.
Eighth, Trump almost always plays the chief divisor, not the unifying chief. Now is surely not the time for Trump and his top cabinet officials (such as interim cabinet chief Mick Mulvaney) and representatives (Donald Trump Jr.) to claim that the coronavirus is being promoted by crazed Democrats. It could be said that this is the most serious health crisis the world has faced in many years to, at best, ignore it as a partisan problem.
Trump officials made a good decision a month ago by banning non-US citizens who recently visited China from entering the U.S. and by imposing two-week quarantines on Americans who visited the province of Hubei where the virus originated.
But Italy went even further: it suspended all flights from China, but the country still faces a major health crisis with around 1,700 confirmed cases.
Trump should spend less time campaigning in places where he is not even on the ballot (South Carolina) and review the information leaflets, start listening to some experts, including those who challenge his preconceived ideas, and start acting as the president of all americans
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Of course, the probability that some of this will happen is like the probability that we will find a coronavirus vaccine "quickly" as Trump said this week, when in reality there is little chance of that happening. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that developing a vaccine for a coronavirus will in fact probably take "about a year to a year and a half."
By then, Trump could be enjoying a quality retirement time at Mar-a-Lago because if he continues to deal with this crisis in an arrogant way, voters probably won't forgive him.
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