The economy continues to descend into hell. This Thursday, the announcement by the United States of the suspension of all trips from Europe to the country - except for the United Kingdom -, struck a blow to several sectors, plunging the stock markets in a new negative spiral. The economic benefits of the travel ban are likely to be numerous. For the White House, however, the decision was imperative: " The epicenter of the coronavirus is now in Europe, " said US Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday.
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Donald Trump immediately wanted to reassure economic players: trade is not - yet - affected by these restrictions. While his speech remained vague on this point, the American president clarified in a message posted on Twitter that it was " very important for all countries and all companies to know that trade will not be affected in any way by the restriction " It will therefore concern " people and not goods ", he added.
Precision was important, the European Union drawing a very positive balance from its trade in goods and services with its partner across the Atlantic: in 2019, the European bloc drew a surplus of 152.6 billion euros from its trade with the United States, up nearly 15 billion (or 11%) over one year. Conversely, the deficit vis-à-vis Moscow has narrowed, as has that towards Oslo. It remains to be seen whether European products will not be victims of an increased distrust of American consumers, worried about being potentially contaminated by the foodstuffs they buy…
A disaster for the airlines
In addition, the decision of the White House is very bad news for European airlines, which had preferred to redeploy their fleet on safe routes, especially over the Atlantic to compensate for losses in the East. In February, the Air France-KLM group had significantly increased its capacity to North America (up 13.6%), Latin America (+ 10.1%) and Africa or the Middle Orient (+ 7.3%), to compensate for a significant reduction in capacity to Asia (-15.8%).
Evolution of Air France-KLM capacity and traffic in February Le Figaro
For March, the company expects the cancellation of 3600 flights, or " 13% of its capacity on the long-haul network ", 17% in France and 25% on the European network. The American decision further clouded the outlook for aviation, leading to a dizzying plunge in the action of the Franco-Dutch group in the abyss, returning to a level never seen since 2012. It is not the only one in difficulty: all the companies European airlines cashed in on Thursday, the American announcement. This is for example the case of the German Lufthansa, which lost almost 10% on the stock market at the end of the morning.
A few hours later, Bruno Le Maire said that he was monitoring the situation of the French company closely, and that the French state was ready to support Air France-KLM. The French Minister of Economy also regretted the American decision, taken without first talking to the countries concerned.
Tourism struck by the American decision
Another particularly affected sector, French tourism, which is worried about a decision that completes a black series. After several difficult months, the drop in arrivals of Chinese tourists and a year 2019 marked by social movements, tour operators are likely to see a particularly attractive market shrinking like a pang: American visitors represent the first contingent of foreign tourists in Paris and in the Île-de-France region and they are particularly popular with professionals, being more spendthrift than the average. " This is the worst news for airlines, and it is the worst provision for us, " warned the president of the federation of tour operators (Seto), René-Marc Chikli. For his part, the president of Entreprises du voyage, Jean-Pierre Mas, highlighted a " catastrophe ", as well as a " dramatic situation ... for the business and leisure travel industry ".
As a member country of the Union, the United States remains by far the largest source of tourists in France. Le Figaro
Same observation on the other side of the Atlantic: the United States is depriving itself of a significant windfall by closing the gates of certain nations. The decision is not trivial, this sector being particularly dynamic. The country topped the ranking of countries deriving the most revenue from international tourism in 2017, with 186.6 billion euros, or 15.7% of global revenue. Far ahead of Spain (5.1% of revenues, 60.3 billion) and France (4.5% of revenues, 53.7 billion), which complete the podium.
In total, among the twenty first nations that send tourists to the United States, eight are in Europe. And, among the most important American markets, a large number are affected by the epidemic, such as South Korea, China, Japan, Italy, France or Australia. In 2017, the United States was among the most popular destinations for the French, with 786,000 trips, the first non-EU destination ahead of Morocco (581,000 trips), Switzerland (709,000) and Canada (291,000 trips).
According to estimates from October 2019, France and Germany were among the large contingents of tourists to the United States, with nearly 4 million visitors in 2018. Little consolation: the United Kingdom, the third emitter, and first non-NAFTA, is spared by the American decision. British travelers can therefore continue to travel to the United States.
France and Germany were among the large contingents of tourists to the United States, with nearly 4 million visitors in 2018. Le Figaro
Brussels denounces a "unilateral" decision
Opposite, the national authorities of the member countries of the Union want to act to provide a protective cushion for professionals. In France, representatives of the tourism sector will be received this week by the Secretary of State Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne. In addition, the European Commission promises to act to avoid the " economic disruption " caused by the American decision. " Europe is taking all necessary measures to contain the expansion of Covid-19, limit the number of infected people and support research, " said chairman Charles Michel.
The fact remains that Brussels rebuked the American presidency over its decision: on Thursday, the Commission disapproved of the “ unilateral ” decision of the United States, taken without consulting its partners. " The coronavirus is a global crisis that is not limited to a continent, " recalled Charles Michel and the president of the European executive, Ursula von der Leyen in a terse statement.