In normal times, the French like municipal elections; their history, under the Fifth Republic, is marked by a strong interest in local issues, and a significant mobilization on voting days. But not this time. Fear of the coronavirus, scrambled government messages, and both health and political reasons led many voters to turn down the polls. The choices of those who mobilized, on the other hand, do not seem to have been influenced by this crisis.
Record abstention for municipal
56%. According to Elabe's estimate for Le Parisien and BFMTV, which will have to be confirmed, the abstention rate reached on Sunday evening. Or almost 10 points more than the previous election in 2014 (36.5%). Never had so few voters gone to the polls during a municipal election. Only certain European elections, 2008 and 2014, did worse.
"Such a difference means that it is, at the same time, all the parts of the territory and all the categories of electorate which went less to vote", analyzed Sunday evening in Le Parisien the political scientist at Cevipof, Bruno Cautrès.
The unknown of the holding of the second round
What will happen next Sunday? Many elected officials from different political parties asked, as soon as the results were known, to postpone the second round: the environmental MEP Yannick Jadot, the president of the National Rally (RN) Marine Le Pen, the boss of the deputies The Republicans Damien Abad, in particular .
Édouard Philippe announced that he would consult scientific experts as well as political parties "at the beginning of the week", before taking a position. In case of postponement arises the question of keeping the results of the first round, knowing that many candidates obtained more than 50% and were therefore, in theory, elected mayors.
The outgoing bonus
In many municipalities, the outgoing mayor is on favorable terms, especially in the big cities. In Paris, Anne Hidalgo came out on top (30%). The same goes for Martine Aubry in Lille (29%) and Jean-Luc Moudenc in Toulouse (36.2%), in particular. Leavers have even been re-elected in many municipalities in Ile-de-France, such as Jean-François Copé in Meaux or André Santini in Issy-les-Moulineaux.
“The hard core who went to vote is rather legitimist, he has a culture of voting and he believes in universal suffrage and in the institutions of the Republic. This rather favored the leavers who also benefited from a notoriety effect. Because the electoral campaign was very shaken, which did not allow the opponents to make a name for themselves, "analyzes political scientist Olivier Rouquan.
Well-placed ministers
There were ten ministers to stand for this election. Five of them (or their list) were re-elected in the first round: Gérald Darmanin (Tourcoing), Franck Riester (Coulommiers), Sébastien Lecornu (Vernon), Geneviève Darrieussecq (Mont-de-Marsan) and Marc Fesneau (Marchenoir ).
Prime Minister Édouard Philippe is on favorable ballot in Le Havre (43.6% of the vote), but the other four only come in second position, at best. Overall, their results are therefore quite positive. "They are doing well or very well, they especially benefit from being established locally for a long time", judge Olivier Rouquan.
Bérézina for LREM
Newborn in French political life and vying for the first time in a municipal election, the Republic on the March party, launched in 2016 by Emmanuel Macron, failed to transform the essay. In many large cities, such as Paris, Lille, Bordeaux or Perpignan, the candidate invested by the presidential party only comes third. The scores are sometimes very low and below 10%, as in Marseille, Toulon or Montpellier.
The situation is not so much better for the candidates who do not belong to LREM but whom the party has supported without investing their own contender. If Jean-Luc Moudenc (LR) arrives at the head in Toulouse, the mayor of Nancy, Laurent Hénart, is in unfavorable waivers. "There is a great difficulty for this party to find local relays which will allow it to face the local deadlines of next year, the departmental and the regional", underlined Sunday evening in Le Parisien Pascal Perrineau, political scientist and researcher at Cevipof.
A green push… except in Paris and Rouen
From a big city, they could go to two or three. While environmentalists are on a very favorable waiver to keep the mayor of Grenoble (Eric Piolle obtained 44%), they have a good chance of getting their hands on other large municipalities.
Newsletter - The essentials of the news
Every morning, the news seen by Le ParisienI'm registering
Your email address is collected by Le Parisien to allow you to receive our news and commercial offers. Find out more
Their candidates, often at the head of a wider list of unions on the left, obtained, respectively, 30% in Lyon, 35% in Bordeaux, 28% in Strasbourg and 31% in Besançon. "Political ecology has gone from an offer of testimony to a major political force," welcomed MEP Yannick Jadot on TF1. On the other hand, contrary to what they hoped, the ecologists only arrive 2nd in Rouen, behind the PS, and they do not break through in Paris.
The RN consolidates its bastions and dreams of Perpignan
In Beaucaire, Béziers, Fréjus and Hénin-Beaumont, the four outgoing mayors emerged victorious in the first round. In Hénin, a former springboard for Marine Le Pen, his friend Steeve Briois was even re-elected with a triumphant 74.2%.
The RN can hope to win Moissac (Tarn-et-Garonne) and Bruay-la-Buissière (Pas-de-Calais). In Perpignan, with 35.6% of the vote, the deputy RN Louis Aliot rose, as in 2014, at the head of the first round. And it curdles Jean-Marc Pujol, who is almost half the number of voices than in 2014. Taking a big city - 122,000 inhabitants - would be a major challenge for the National Rally which did not manage to take Denain (North) nor Calais, despite the involvement of Marie-Caroline Le Pen, older sister of Marine Le Pen.
LR and PS save the furniture
They were said to be in bad shape, affected by the ambient "clearance". But The Republicans and the Socialist Party achieved honorable scores. The right-wing party, which remained on a "blue wave" in the previous election in 2014, can count on some of its executives largely re-elected in the first round, such as François Baroin in Troyes or David Lisnard in Cannes. In Nice Christian Estrosi is sure to be re-elected in the second round. On the other hand, the LR candidate in Bordeaux, historically led by the right, is neck and neck with his environmental opponent. The party risks losing Marseille, after the Gaudin era which lasted 25 years: its candidate, Martine Vassal, comes only second behind Michèle Rubirola (at the head of a union list from the left).
On the side of the socialists, we breathe. The rose party should keep its main bastions. Anne Hidalgo (in Paris) and Martine Aubry (Lille) seem very well placed to stack. Same thing for Joanna Rolland in Nantes and Nathalie Appéré in Rennes.
"These two classic parties are not dead unlike a bunch of comments that may have been made since 2017. They knew how to prepare the municipal and they have expertise in local politics," said Olivier Rouquan.
In the DOM-TOM
Jet lag requires, it is New Caledonia which opened its polling stations first, more disturbed by a tropical depression than by the nocturnal debate which raged in the metropolis: cancel the holding of the first round because of the coronavirus. In Noumea, the list of outgoing Sonia Lagarde, affiliated to LREM, won the election in the first round with 63.9% of the vote against a background of historically low participation. Independents, absent for two terms, were elected.
In La Réunion, eight mayors were re-elected in the first round of municipal elections. The former minister and deputy Ericka Bareigts is in a favorable ballot in Saint-Denis (42.70%). In Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Yannick Cambray, close to the Minister for Overseas Annick Girardin, swept in the first round (61% of the votes) the outgoing mayor of Saint-Pierre Karine Claireaux (DVG), who sought a fourth term.
The varied fortunes of the people
The personalities who engaged in the poll obtained more than honorable scores. The former CEO of France Télévisions Patrick de Carolis is in the lead in Arles, the boss Mohed Altrad has not failed in Montpellier. As for the former handball world champion Jackson Richardson, he came second in the third sector of Marseille… Even the comedian Rémi Gaillard, whose list was however called "Anything", borders on 10% in Montpellier . On the other hand, former footballers, in Paris, Saint-Etienne or Marseille, are struggling.
VIDEO. Municipal: they vote at stage 3 of the coronavirus epidemic