Politics
Written by: Lin Jian
2020-03-19 07:00
Last updated: 2020-03-19 07:00Elections for the Legislative Council were held in September this year. Democrats have recently been led by Dai Yaoting, an associate professor at the Law School of the University of Hong Kong, and former member of the Legislative Council, Mr. Nuo Xuan, to coordinate the election. Democrats plan to use Kowloon East as a pilot and start discussions this Monday (March 17) evening. It is understood that the democrats have reached a basic consensus at the meeting and implemented the abstention mechanism based on the last poll before the election, that is, they do not plan to hold a formal primary election. According to the preliminary plans of the Democrats, if the Kowloon East Mechanism operates successfully, it may become a reference for other constituencies. It is reported that Hong Kong Island and Kowloon West will be the next round of coordination goals.
Compared with the formal primary election, the abandonment mechanism has its advantages. It can give the lists sufficient time to win support before deciding to stay in the final stage of the election campaign. However, in actual operation, the relevant mechanism involves quite complicated operations, such as difficulty in handling the issue of close poll results, and how to effectively convey information to voters. If it is not handled properly, it will be extremely prone to "grab speculation."
"Hong Kong 01" reporters inquired about people in other constituencies. Some political parties welcomed the abandonment arrangements as an effective way to reduce controversy. However, some people are not optimistic about the prospects of the abolition mechanism and believe that there is no fundamental lack of democracy Mutual trust, indicating no intention to join the coordination for the time being.
Dai Yaoting and Qu Nuoxuan led the coordination of the democrats. (Photo / Photo by Liang Pengwei)
Resolve Plan B disputes based on voter polls
Synthesizing information from all parties, the factions reached three major consensuses at the meeting on Monday. First, willing to support people with high odds but different parties; Second, Jiulong East takes three seats as its basic goal; Third, implement the abstention mechanism based on the last poll before the election. Other implementation details, such as how to establish a "dead line", how to mobilize supporters to switch to other candidates, and how to deal with the results of the polls within the margin of error, have not been discussed for the time being.
However, there is basically a consensus among the participants that no formal primary elections are planned at this stage, but the final polls approaching the polling day before the elections are used as a screening criterion. Some participants pointed out that this can settle the dispute over who belongs to "Plan B", because all the participants have successfully "entered the gate" as they have entered the final stage.
At present, there is no "abandonment" arrangement. According to Article 42 of the Legislative Council Ordinance, candidates can only withdraw their nominations before the end of the nomination period. In other words, the relevant candidate can only indicate that the electoral works will be stopped immediately, but election expenses will also be calculated.
Democrats are brewing to take more than half of the seats in the current Legislative Council elections, and various people have begun to coordinate recently. (Profile picture)
Abandonment arrangements guarantee fair entry but technically difficult to operate
According to the analysis of the democrats, the advantage of the abandonment arrangement is that the lists can be fairly entered, and there is enough time to strive for performance in election projects and election forums, to gain popularity, and those who start late need not worry about early elections. Duan was "persuaded".
But there are two sides to a silver. The disadvantage of the abandonment mechanism is that if two or more lists have similar support, for example, within the margin of error, or even in the key position between the final seat and the loss, which side is called? Withdrawal is unconvincing, or there will be a dilemma for slightly backward people refusing to withdraw; even if there is a clear poll result, as mentioned above, the abandonment can only be announced verbally, and its list will still be printed on the ballot. Candidates with low support have to withdraw, and only a few days, the message may not be effectively transmitted to voters, and supporters may not know who to vote for. The effect of centralized voting sources may be greatly reduced. Once the above two situations occur, the result is the same as increasing the chances of "seeking speculation."
Formal primary elections have the advantage that the results are relatively clear and objective, avoiding errors, and pre-determining the list of candidates, so that voters have clear choices. However, amateurs are susceptible to questioning whether the primaries are good for big parties, current members or well-known candidates. In the previous session, both Luo Guancong and Zhu Kaidi had the historical example of "losing polls and winning elections". Their success in the later stages also weakened the persuasiveness of the primary election.
▼ Potential Candidates for Democracy Hong Kong Island ▼
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Coordinate Nine West and Hong Kong Island next week
Currently, the situation in the New Territories East and New Territories West, each with nine seats in each of the five districts, is the most confusing, with six seats each on Hong Kong Island and Kowloon West. A person familiar with the matter revealed to the "Hong Kong 01" reporter that the Democrats plan to "buy Taiwan" next week to coordinate arrangements for West Kowloon and Hong Kong Island. According to Dai Yaoting's recent comments on social networks, democrats tend to target four seats in these two districts.
Some people in political parties have analyzed that replacing "primary elections" with "abandonment" is a way out of nowhere. Because if a formal primary election is held, currently less well-known candidates may think that the mechanism is unfair, which is conducive to the victory of the Pan-Presidential Party, thereby rejecting "falling into the water" and losing the meaning of coordination itself, so they consider the arrangement acceptable.
▼ Democratic Kowloon West Potential Candidates ▼
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Amateur reports that it is difficult to trust the big party to refuse to attend the coordination meeting
However, some people from Kowloon West reported to "Hong Kong 01" that the democratic parties gave up the primaries and set up a rejection mechanism. It is a good thing that the big parties can agree to this arrangement, but there is still a problem of fundamental mutual trust between the democratic parties.
First, there are different spectral lines within the democrats themselves. Do they have unanimous voting positions on policy issues, and do they have common work and strategic consensus on parliamentary resistance? If not, coordination will lose its own meaning. Second, the abandonment mechanism requires the consensus of all parties, but if someone goes against it or is unwilling to commit, what will happen then? According to past experience, even if the big party's "anti-mouth" violates the mechanism first, the less well-known candidates are easily at a disadvantage and are easily dismissed by the "big picture" and other reasons. The source also said that he was indeed invited to participate in the meeting next week, but has declined.
The issue of mutual trust is not something that can be tackled in an instant, so what should we do? The amateur believes that at least the PAP should make a public commitment that if the party falls behind in the polls, it will also announce abandonment and "give way" to the list with a higher chance of winning. The big parties take the lead, adding at least a little foundation for mutual trust.
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