[01 Interview] The epidemic exposes the absence of the Western system, can Europe and the United States replicate the Asian epidemic model?

World theory

Written by: Mao Yongqi

2020-03-23 ​​07:40

The new crown pneumonia epidemic has spread rapidly in Europe and the United States, and the number of confirmed diagnoses in Italy, Spain, and even the United States has soared. Various countries have adopted various laws and adopted more stringent restrictions, city closures, and country lockups.

"Hong Kong 01" interviewed Professor Su Yiren, then the director of the SARS in Taiwan in 2003, to learn his views on China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan's anti-epidemic measures, and the current European and American epidemic situation. (Interview with Taiwan Anti-SARS Expert Su Yiren)

States in the United States have begun to implement varying degrees of customs clearance policies. (Associated Press)

Looking back about a month ago, most countries in Europe have not taken too strong measures against the new crown pneumonia epidemic. British Prime Minister Johnson also put forward the concept of "herd immunity" more than a week ago, hoping to infect a large number of people within a short period of time, thereby generating immunity, reflecting that their approach to the epidemic is closer to the flu.

Why doesn't responding to the flu concept work?

Su Yiren thinks this is "feasible but horrible". He explained that if 60% of the population is to be infected within two or three months, the medical system will definitely collapse. This approach is based on the concept of treating influenza. New crown pneumonia may not be appropriate,

Influenza generally has a very low proportion of severe illness and death. You can use this method to deal with it, but Wuhan pneumonia has a severe proportion of 10-20% and a mortality rate of 2-3%. This energy is very large.

Most people in Europe and the United States still do not wear masks to go out, and mainly rely on social distancing strategies to prevent epidemics.

Indeed, less than a week later, the Johnson administration abandoned this method of herd immunity and urged the public to stop going out. The public places have closed their doors, and the crowded London metropolis has entered a state of lockout.

In Italy, the worst epidemic in Europe, the number of confirmed cases has reached 53,000, the death toll has exceeded 4,800, hospital beds and medical resources are severely inadequate, and some elderly patients have been abandoned for treatment, leading to a far higher mortality rate than in other countries. Su Yiren pointed out that the European and American medical systems each have their own characteristics, but in terms of epidemic prevention, past habits and diseases that have occurred should not take such extreme actions, and the medical system will soon collapse.

The Italian medical system is not enough to cope with a large number of patients. Setting up temporary hospitals with tents still shows a certain distance from temporary hospitals in China. (Associated Press)

"Medical costs in many countries in Europe and the United States are expensive, and this is not suitable for epidemic prevention. In Taiwan, almost all medical operations in the broad sense are funded by the government." Although tests in the United States are free, the related costs are twofold. 3,000 dollars, and patients need to pay because of the high threshold of medical insurance.

U.S. medical costs are high, vaccines are needed without drugs

The biggest illness challenge the United States has faced in recent years is the new H1N1 flu in 2009, but the "fortunate" rate of severe illness and mortality was low, so Su Yiren believes that "the concept of flu can also be used." The severity and mortality of pneumonia are high, so they cannot be compared. "Europe and the United States have not experienced the painful experience of SARS in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. They all use anti-flu methods to control them. These concepts must be changed, otherwise they will be greatly affected." However, many western countries have not been deeply involved. It is understood that in the face of different viruses, the strategies for epidemic prevention are different.

On March 20, a large number of people in South Carolina, the United States, ignored the government's call to reduce socializing and went to the beach for recreation. (Associated Press)

Su Yiren went on to point out that there are many people who die of influenza in the United States every year. The US policy on influenza is to vaccinate and not use medicines, because patients must go to hospital outpatient clinics, which will be very expensive.

The (US) medical system can't withstand the challenge of epidemic prevention, so they must develop vaccines. So why Trump is focusing on vaccine development now is very important.

In the past, the United States responded to the H1N1 epidemic with anti-influenza. With a low mortality rate and a low proportion of severe illness, it was barely suppressed. The picture shows US laboratory personnel testing for new crown virus. (Associated Press)

Is it a recipe for China and the West to have different strategies to close the country and lock up the country?

The differences in political systems and culture between China and the West also underscore the differences in strategies for responding to this epidemic. China fights the epidemic "at all costs". Large-scale production shutdowns, school closures, and school closures have a huge economic impact, which has also caused many questions in the West. However, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has recently become more severe. Countries have also begun to adopt "authoritarian" methods. Poland, the Czech and other Central and Eastern European countries have already announced the closure of their borders, and German states have also gradually "capped cities." France has implemented national restrictions on people's travel. The closure of bars and restaurants is obviously stronger than the Asian regions such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and Singapore.

Su Yiren said that in such a large-scale closure of the city of Wuhan, China, the suspension of work for more than one month has a great impact on the economy and is very inconvenient for the people's lives. Therefore, he does not agree to such a point. In places such as Europe and the United States where human rights are more important, it is very difficult to implement measures such as closing the city, and the effect is expected to be discounted.

Italian military vehicle was sent to the cemetery for cremation. (Associated Press)

Avoid mass infections and wait for vaccines

Democracies such as Taiwan and South Korea are still effective in controlling the epidemic. The reporter asked, what can European and American countries learn from? He believes that the outbreak in South Korea is due to religion (Xintiandi Church) and the infection of large groups in religious gatherings. Therefore, the most important "mitigation" measure in epidemic prevention is to avoid large gatherings. Today, he believes that areas with severe outbreaks should try to avoid some large-scale infections in order to delay harm reduction. He hopes that the outbreak will slowly slow down in July and August and that it can be protected by vaccines in winter.

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