The Covid-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented experience for the global economy. " An unidentified economic object" , suggests Bruno Cavalier, chief economist of Oddo BHF, different from the great recession of 2008-2009 and the great depression of the 1930s. The best analogy is " the war economy , punctuates Eric Dor, director at Ieseg, the school of management. Whole sections of the economy are at a standstill! The analogy has its limits, since in wartime part of the production runs at full speed and the population is mobilized or at the front.
The lack of visibility of the health crisis, its extent and its duration, makes it difficult to assess the economic shock. Only one certainty: recession is inevitable. But on what scale? How many quarters? Will the recovery be in V with a clear rebound? Economists get lost in guesswork. "The fall in GDP will
certainly double-digit in the quarter, " cautiously advises Christopher Dembik of Saxo Bank.
This article is for subscribers only. You still have 75% to discover.
Subscribe: € 1 for 2 months
cancellable at any time
Enter your emailAlready subscribed? Log in
