The stimulus agreement in the US includes checks for citizens ... but will last until May

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Markets react to the US stimulus package

(CNN) - US lawmakers In the early hours of Wednesday they reached a stimulus agreement for 2 billion dollars, which includes the direct sending of checks to citizens in the midst of the coronavirus crisis ... but it is likely that this money will take at least until May.

President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are still pushing for direct payments to be issued before April 6, a White House official told CNN. The date was presented as an earlier deadline by Mnuchin during the negotiations.

• READ: White House and Senate reach historic $ 2 trillion stimulus deal for coronavirus crisis

However, experts point out that this objective is too ambitious. Under previous programs in 2001 and 2008, it took the government more than a month to distribute the checks.

"It is highly unlikely that people will receive payments before April 6, within two weeks," said Howard Gleckman, a member of the Center for Fiscal Policy. "It is more realistic to expect them in a month or two."

$ 1,200 for individuals, 2,400 for couples and 500 for each child

Under the plan at the time of the deal, single Americans would receive $ 1,200, married couples would get $ 2,400, and parents would get $ 500 for each child under the age of 17.

However, such checks have exceptions and would begin to be phased out for individuals with adjusted gross income of more than $ 75,000. Even those over $ 99,000 would not even qualify for the benefit. These thresholds are doubled in the case of couples.

About 90% of Americans would be eligible to receive full or partial payments, according to calculations from the Center for Fiscal Policy. Lawmakers set aside $ 250 billion for so-called recovery rebates.

Income levels for deciding eligibility will be based on 2019 federal tax returns, if already filed. Otherwise, the 2018 tax returns will be used. (Mnuchin extended, at the beginning of this month, the deadline to file the tax return until July 15).

There are also provisions in the bill to include those who do not earn enough to file returns, but even then some people may be left out, Gleckman said.

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Under the bargaining measure, low- and middle-income Americans would receive just over two-thirds of the benefits, Gleckman said. An earlier version of the law provided low-income families with less or even no assistance.

How the measure worked in 2001 and 2008

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has sent economic stimulus checks on previous occasions, and although those plans were slightly different they can give you an idea of ​​how long the process would take.

In 2001, it took the IRS six weeks to begin sending authorized rebate checks within President George W. Bush's tax cut. Then in 2008, in the midst of the Great Recession, it took three months for the checks to start coming out after Bush signed the law. In that case, Americans had to file their tax return first to get the benefit. Once they filed their return, it took 8 to 12 weeks before they got the money.

"Certainly, from what we've seen in the past, it has taken a significant amount of time to send checks after a policy is established," said Erica York, economist at the Tax Foundation.

Those who authorized direct deposit to their bank account probably received the fastest money. Those consignments were made over a three-week period in 2008, while paper checks were mailed for 10 weeks, York said.

Now, Americans are likely to receive the stimulus payments faster this time because a large number of them submit their documents electronically and provide the IRS with their bank information, Gleckman said. About 88% of individual tax returns were filed electronically in 2018, compared to 58% in 2008.

Nina Olson, who served as the IRS National Taxpayer Advocate between 2001 and 2019, said Wednesday that "maybe, just maybe" some checks could be issued by April 6, probably to people who have already filed their returns.

Coronavirus has impacted IRS personnel

But there are other factors that can delay the process. Even in the absence of coronavirus challenges, the agency is working on a smaller budget and smaller staff than in 2010.

Now, due to the coronavirus, the IRS closed its personal taxpayer assistance centers across the country, at a time when people will surely have questions about emergency checks and other changes. The Treasury Department announced last week that it will delay the deadline for filing the income statement until July 15. Additionally, Congress created a new tax credit designed to reimburse companies that offer their employees paid leave in connection with the coronavirus pandemic.

"It's a recipe for confusion," said Olson. "There may be a lot of complexity involved in something as simple as sending a check," he added.

• READ: 4 reasons why Trump's "American Resurrection" will not work

First, the IRS will have to calculate the payment amount for each person. Then you will need the correct direct deposit information or email addresses. In order to release the money to people who do not usually file tax returns, the agency may need to request that information from the Social Security Administration or the Department of Veterans Affairs. In 2008, those people were asked to file a return anyway to get their refund.

Meanwhile, the IRS will inevitably take calls from concerned Americans about when their check will arrive and whether they have taken all necessary steps to receive the money. In 2001, the agency sent letters to taxpayers explaining that they did not have to do anything to receive their check. But, instead of avoiding calls, the notice had the reverse effect. As a consequence, the IRS first received 1 million calls in a single day, Olson said.

Then in 2008, after the economic stimulus checks were mailed, Olson testified before Congress and told lawmakers they should fund a new unit within the agency that is dedicated to facilitating new and emergency initiatives. He argued that he would free other employees to focus on improving existing systems and executing the agency's daily work, but that never happened.

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