No protective equipment, disturbed logistics, hardly any reserves: A think tank of the Bundeswehr writes that the corona crisis has to be ruthlessly drawn - and also expects consequences for conflicts and tensions in the world.
Berlin (dpa) - The Bundeswehr think tank GIDS expects the corona pandemic to have far-reaching consequences for security policy and the reconstruction of strategic reserves.
Regardless of favorable economic and political framework conditions in Germany, the crisis uncovered more and more "the lack of substantial, actually legally prescribed resources at the level of the municipalities and the states as well as the lack of strategic reserves in terms of personnel, material and infrastructure at the federal level", says a GIDS paper published on Saturday, which is a cooperation between the Bundeswehr Command and Staff College and the Helmut Schmidt University / Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg.
"For generations, people have not felt so vulnerable," the authors write. Bottlenecks in essential goods such as medicines and protective equipment showed how dependent Germany is on global supply chains "and this even for products that should not be an issue for an industrial nation that is admired worldwide". "In order to regain strategic autonomy, in future more attention must be paid to the diversity of suppliers, to stockpiling and the avoidance of redundancies. The management of certain resources, the importance of which often only becomes clear in the course of a crisis, must be recognized earlier and controlled centrally. "
Since the suspension of compulsory military service, the Bundeswehr has had very little strategic personnel, it is said. This also applies to civilian aid organizations that would have benefited from civil service providers for decades. In addition, numerous military properties were dissolved, which could have been used now. "In the end, the fixed costs for maintaining a strategic reserve, be it in terms of personnel or material, could turn out to be much lower than the immediate costs and, above all, the resulting costs that arise in a crisis. Germany urgently needs to make improvements here," is advised.
The reappraisal of the crisis, "that can already be said, therefore requires an unsparing investigation into the question of why the world has obviously slipped so blindly into disaster". Perhaps the disaster was "accepted with approval".
Distribution struggles over state resources, in which citizens and organizations make claims, are expected: "Since the term" security "for most people is likely to be almost exclusively associated with health, social and economic security now and in the foreseeable future All aspects of military security in Germany and Europe are clearly in the background - and that would be fatal. "
There could be significant expectations from the EU, especially from the "looking into the abyss Member States Italy and Spain". "If Germany takes over the presidency of the EU Council Presidency in the second half of the year, Covid-19 will probably continue to be the determining topic - and expectations, especially for Germany, are likely to be immense."
The authors of the think tank expect that, given the corona crisis, there may be signs of relaxation in international politics. An example: "The Kremlin probably also hopes to ease the tense relationship with NATO, perhaps even to build a bridge that could initiate a relaxation of the sanctions." In some cases, the corona pandemic acts like a fire accelerator. The potential for violence can grow above all where there are refugees in large numbers. The corona virus also acts like a "toxic accelerator" on authoritarian states.
The institute names seven theses and recommendations for action: The corona pandemic is likely to open up opportunities for foreign and security policy "because there are spaces for action between the actors that were previously unthinkable". In general, more strategic attention should be paid to the topic of global health protection and early warning systems. "We need an honest discussion about Germany's strategic reserves," the authors continue. The politically buried topic of a mandatory year of service is also back on the agenda. There is also a warning to underestimate the consequences of the pandemic for the world's miserable regions.
German Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies (GIDS)
GIDS paper on Corona