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Do not give in to the Jordanian panic

2020-04-12T22:13:06.562Z


Nadav Shragai


53 years after the Hashemite kingdom broke apart in the Six-Day War, and 32 years after announcing its disconnection with the West Bank and even renouncing its claims to sovereignty there, Blue and White is attempting to involve Jordan, almost forcefully, in the "annexation dispute" with the Likud. Gantz and Ashkenazi's argument in talks about the establishment of a unity government is that an unintentional annexation of Jordan would jeopardize our special relationship with the kingdom, including the long-standing silence on our eastern border.

However, this argument ignores hidden strata in the relationship between Israel and Jordan, most notably the fact that there is a large gap between the conduct of Jordan and us in the open plane - defiant rhetoric and sometimes incitement - intended to please the Palestinian majority in its field - and the conduct of the actual kingdom and behind the scenes.

Jordan "swallows" a lot of "Israeli frogs" over the years, to maintain an informal relationship with Israel that is essential to its very existence. In this context, Jordan enjoys economic, military and intelligence cooperation with us, which often turns out to be critical for her. Jordan also enjoys a special status on the Temple Mount and has in fact become Israel's quiet partner in mountain management. To Jordan, this status is almost existential, given Al-Aqsa's place in the consciousness and narrative of the Hashemite dynasty and many of its inhabitants, and it will think twice before endangering this status.

To this should be added Israel's relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia, which have served Jordan well over the years, and also the dependence of poor Jordan, the refugee petition and the scarce natural resources, in foreign aid. In 2018, for example, the US signed an agreement with Jordan To provide $ 6.5 billion in military and economic aid for five years.

Like his great grandfather Abdullah and his father Hussein, Abdullah II also has a relationship with Israel above and below the surface. To preserve it, Jordan has over the years - albeit with a grit - to annex East Jerusalem to the State of Israel, the establishment of the Jewish neighborhood chain there, the transfer of the American embassy to Jerusalem, and the recognition of the status of the settlement by the US. It will "survive" in the same way. The Jordan Valley and the Jewish communities in the West Bank, while Jordan's latest ambition is to find itself reinforcing a complex border with a Palestinian state in the West Bank, which threatens to intertwine with the Palestinian population of Jordan, and undermining the government there.

The Jordanians prefer that the IDF continue to punish them with the Palestinians who live in the "West Bank," and of course it is much more convenient for this partition to continue to exist without Israeli sovereignty. But even if sovereignty is applied, Jordan does not appear to break the tools and burn all the bridges. The ambassador and perhaps the suspension of the peace treaty, but in essence, Israel-Jordan relations and the interests of both countries can be estimated to change, although they may "go underground" for a period, but not beyond that.

Exploiting the one-time opportunity to apply sovereignty to Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria is as strategic and vital as the strategic and vital relationship with Jordan. The price paid to the kingdom for this step is worth the consideration. Jordan may be furious, hurt, supportive, extracurricular and prosper us. At the end of the day, the interest will increase and her relationship with the State of Israel - even if not officially - will be maintained.

For more opinions by Nadav Shragai

Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2020-04-12

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