Many people blame the coronavirus epidemic on globalization and say that the only way to prevent further outbreaks of this type is to de-globalize the world. Build walls, restrict travel, decrease trade. However, while quarantine is essential to stem the epidemic at this time, establishing isolationism in the long term will bring economic collapse and will not provide any genuine protection against infectious diseases. On the contrary. The true antidote to an epidemic is not segregation, but cooperation.
Epidemics killed millions of people long before the current globalization era. In the fourteenth century, there were no planes or large ships, and yet the black plague spread from East Asia to Western Europe in little more than a decade. It caused the death of between 75 and 200 million people, more than a quarter of the Eurasian population. In England, 4 out of 10 people died. The city of Florence lost 50,000 of its 100,000 inhabitants.
Among those who landed in Mexico in March 1520 was a single smallpox carrier, Francisco de Eguía. At that time, of course, there were no trains or buses in Central America, not even donkeys. Despite this from then until December, the smallpox epidemic ravaged the entire region and killed, according to some estimates, a third of its population.
In 1918, a particularly virulent strain of the flu was able to spread in a few months to the most remote corners of the world. It infected 500 million people, more than a quarter of the human species. The flu is estimated to have killed 5% of India's population. On the island of Tahiti 14% died, in Samoa 20%. Taken together, the pandemic killed tens of millions of people - perhaps as many as 100 million - in less than a year. More deaths than World War I in four years of brutal fighting.
A virus can make its way from Paris to Tokyo and Mexico in 24 hours
In the century since 1918, humanity has become increasingly vulnerable to epidemics, due to a mixture of increasing population and better transportation. A modern metropolis like Tokyo or Mexico City offers pathogens much richer hunting grounds than medieval Florence, and the world transport network is much faster than in 1918. A virus can make its way from Paris to Tokyo and Mexico in less than 24 hours. Consequently, we should have anticipated the possibility of living in an infectious hell, with one deadly plague after another. However, both the incidence and impact of epidemics have decreased dramatically. Despite horrific outbreaks like AIDS and Ebola, epidemics in the 21st century kill far fewer people than at any other time in history. The reason is that the best defense that humans have against pathogens is not isolation, but information. Humanity is winning the war on epidemics because, in the arms race between pathogens and doctors, the former can only resort to blind mutations, while the latter rely on scientific analysis of the information.
When the black plague struck in the 14th century, people had no idea what caused it or how to cure it. Until modern times, humans used to blame illnesses on angry gods, evil demons, or bad airs, and they did not suspect bacteria and viruses. People believed in angels and fairies, but could not imagine that a single drop of water could contain a whole fleet of lethal predators. Therefore, when the black plague or smallpox appeared, the most that the authorities could think of was to organize mass prayers to various gods and saints. And that was no use. In fact, when people gathered for mass prayers, the infection used to spread.
During the last century, scientists, doctors and nurses from all over the world have gathered and exchanged information that have allowed them to understand the mechanism of action of epidemics and the methods to counter them. The theory of evolution explained how and why new diseases appear and old ones become more virulent. Genetics allowed scientists to examine the pathogen's own instruction manual. While in the Middle Ages they never discovered what caused black plague, it took scientists today no more than two weeks to identify the coronavirus, sequence its genome, and develop a reliable test to identify infected people.
History indicates that protection is obtained with global solidarity
When scientists understood what causes epidemics, it was much easier for them to fight them. Vaccines, antibiotics, more hygiene, and much better medical infrastructure have enabled humanity to win over its invisible predators. In 1967 there were 15 million people infected with smallpox, of whom two million died. In the following decade, a worldwide vaccination campaign was developed with such success that, in 1979, the World Health Organization declared that humanity had expired and smallpox had been completely eradicated. In 2019, not a single person was infected or died of smallpox.
What does history teach us when facing the current coronavirus epidemic?
First, it gives us to understand that we cannot protect ourselves by permanently closing our borders. Recall that epidemics were spreading rapidly as early as the Middle Ages, long before the era of globalization. Therefore, even if we placed our international connections on a par with those of England in 1348, that would not be enough. If we want an isolation that really protects us, the medieval era is not enough. We would have to go back to the Stone Age. Are we able to do it?
Second, history indicates that true protection is obtained through the exchange of reliable scientific information and global solidarity. When a country suffers from an epidemic, it must be willing to share the information about the outbreak sincerely and without fear of economic catastrophe, while other countries must be able to trust this information and not repudiate the victim, but offer their help. Today, China can teach many countries many important lessons about the coronavirus, but that requires a lot of trust and cooperation.
Irresponsible politicians have undermined faith in science
Such international cooperation is also required for quarantine measures to be effective. Quarantines and isolates are essential to stop epidemics. But, when the countries distrust each other and each one thinks that he is alone, the governments do not decide to take such drastic measures. If we discovered 100 cases of coronavirus in our country, would we immediately shut down entire cities and regions? In large part, it depends on what we expect from other countries. The closure of cities can lead to economic crisis. If we think that other countries are going to help us, we will be more likely to make such a radical decision. But, if we believe that the other countries are going to abandon us, we will surely hesitate and when we act it will be too late.
Perhaps the most important thing people need to know about epidemics is that the spread of the disease in any country endangers the entire human species. The reason is that viruses evolve. Viruses such as corona have their origin in animals, for example bats. When they pass into humans, they are poorly adapted to their organisms. Then they undergo occasional mutations by doubling up. They are mostly harmless, but every now and then, a mutation makes the virus more infectious or more resistant to the human immune system, and then that mutant strain spreads rapidly through the population. Since a single person can harbor billions of viruses in constant duplication, each infected person offers the pathogen billions of opportunities to adapt more to humans. Each bearer is like a gaming machine that provides the virus with billions of lottery tickets, and it is enough for the virus that one of them is a winner to get ahead.
These are not mere speculations. Richard Preston's book Crisis in the Red Zone describes a similar chain of events in the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The outbreak erupted when Ebola viruses jumped from a bat to a person. They were viruses that people got seriously ill with, but were still more adapted to living in bats than humans.
The United States has made it clear that it has no friends, only interests
What made Ebola go from being a relatively rare disease to a brutal epidemic was a single mutation in a single gene of a single Ebola virus in a single person, somewhere in the Makona region of West Africa. The mutation allowed the new strain - the Makona strain - to bind to cholesterol-carrying molecules, which, instead of cholesterol, began to introduce Ebola into cells. As a consequence, the Makona strain became four times more infectious.
It is possible that, as you read these lines, a similar mutation is taking place in a single coronavirus gene that infected someone in Tehran, Milan or Wuhan. If so, it is a threat not only to Iranians, Italians and Chinese, but to all of us. People all over the world have the same interest, life and death, in not giving the coronavirus that opportunity. And that means protecting all people in all countries.
In the 1970s, mankind managed to defeat the smallpox virus because everyone, everywhere, was vaccinated. If a single country had not vaccinated its population, it could have endangered all of humanity, because as long as the smallpox virus existed and evolved somewhere, it could always spread everywhere.
In the fight against viruses, humanity needs to closely monitor borders. But not the borders between countries, but the border between the human world and the world of viruses. Planet Earth is full of countless viruses, and many new ones constantly appear and evolve due to genetic mutations. The line that separates this virus sphere from the human world is found inside the body of all human beings. If a dangerous virus manages to cross that line anywhere on earth, it endangers the entire human species.
If each country is left to cope as it can, it could be the end of the EU
In the last century, humanity has fortified that frontier as it has never done before. Modern health systems have been built to wall that border, and nurses, doctors, and scientists are the guards who patrol and repel invaders. However, the border has long stretches that, unfortunately, are uncovered. There are hundreds of millions of people in the world who lack the most basic healthcare, and that is a risk for everyone. We are used to talking about healthcare systems from a national point of view, but providing better healthcare to Iranians and Chinese also helps protect Israelis and Americans from an epidemic. This should be evident to everyone, but unfortunately it is something that even some of the most important people in the world miss.
Humanity today faces a serious crisis, not only due to the coronavirus, but also due to the lack of trust between people. To overcome an epidemic, people need to trust scientific experts, citizens need to trust authorities, and countries need to trust each other. In recent years, irresponsible politicians have deliberately undermined faith in science, public authorities, and international cooperation. So now we face this crisis without any world leader capable of inspiring, organizing and financing a coordinated global response.
During the 2014 Ebola epidemic, the United States played that leadership. He also did so during the 2008 financial crisis, and managed to bring together enough countries to avoid a global economic crisis. In recent years, by contrast, the United States has renounced that role. The current government has cut aid to international organizations like the WHO and has made it very clear that the United States has no friends, only interests. When the coronavirus crisis erupted, the US stayed on the sidelines, and so far has resisted taking the initiative. Even if he ultimately wants to, trust in the current US government has been eroded to such an extent that few countries would be willing to be guided by it. Would we follow a boss whose motto is "I the first"?
The void left by the United States has not been filled by anyone. On the contrary. Xenophobia, isolationism and mistrust are today the main characteristics of the international system. Without global trust and solidarity we will not be able to stop the coronavirus epidemic, and we will surely see more such epidemics in the future. But each crisis also represents an opportunity. Let us hope that the present one helps humanity to see the grave danger that disunity constitutes.
For example, the epidemic could help the EU regain popular support that it has lost in recent years. If the luckiest members of the Union are quick to send money, supplies and medical personnel quickly to their worst hit partners, that would prove the value of the European ideal better than all speeches. If, on the contrary, each country is left to manage as it can, the epidemic could herald the end of the European Union.
In this moment of crisis, the crucial battle is being fought within humanity itself. If the epidemic creates more disunity and mistrust among humans, the virus will have won its greatest victory. When humans fight, viruses duplicate themselves. On the other hand, if the epidemic produces greater global cooperation, that will be a victory not only against the coronavirus, but against all future pathogens.
Yuval Noah Harari is a historian and a philosopher.
Translation by María Luisa Rodríguez Tapia.
Copyright © Yuval Noah Harari 2020. Published in TIME.
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