Currently, the news is dominated by daily numbers of those infected and dead. US scientists have now tried to look to the future.
- How will the corona crisis develop in Germany, Europe and worldwide?
- US researchers from the University of Washington are now risking a forecast until August.
- Accordingly, Germany is on the verge of the climax of the corona crisis.
- Here you can find current Corona case numbers * from Germany, Europe and the world. Various maps provide background information on the corona location.
Update April 13, 2020: According to the Johns Hopkins University, there are now over 3,000 corona deaths in Germany. However, according to researchers at the University of Washington, we have exceeded the peak of new deaths in Germany every day.
The Institute for Health and Evaluation calculates forecasts for death rates in various countries until the summer. The institute has now adjusted the numbers - with good news for Germany.
The scientists had originally expected the day's peak with the most deaths to be on April 19 - but now they assume that the biggest wave after Easter is already behind us. However, the researchers expect around 7,000 deaths in Germany by August. There was also a significant downward correction here, because initially they assumed about 8,800 corona deaths (see first report).
There are also new figures for Great Britain that give hope. The projected deaths by August went down clearly from around 66,000 to around 37,000. However, the forecast for the USA remains unchanged: Here, the researchers continue to expect around 60,000 deaths by summer.
Coronavirus: Researchers make death forecast until August
First report April 10, 2020: Berlin - How bad will the Corona crisis still affect Germany? Researchers from the Institute for Health and Evaluation , the University of Washington in Seattle, have now calculated for several countries how the Corona crisis could continue.
According to the projection, Germany is likely to reach the peak of the crisis on April 19 . According to the forecast by the US researchers, around 377 new corona deaths are expected in Germany on this day. The researchers also calculated how the corona crisis would develop afterwards. As a result, there could be around 8,800 corona deaths in Germany by early August . On Good Friday there were around 2,600.
USA expect the Corona climax on Easter Sunday
The situation in other countries is even more dramatic. According to calculations by the US scientists, Great Britain could reach the top of the corona death wave on April 17 - with over 2900 deaths in just one day *! The US would also face the worst: The researchers expect over 2,200 deaths there on Easter Sunday *. According to this forecast, the UK and the United States would have to prepare for a total of over 60,000 deaths by the beginning of August, and there could even be around 6000 more deaths on the British Isles than in the United States.
Read also: How the corona virus spread worldwide - search for traces with surprises *
Corona forecast: Italy, Spain and France have the worst behind them
After all, good news can be derived from the extrapolation: Italy * and Spain * should already have the sad highs of the pandemic in their countries behind them. By the beginning of August, however, a total of around 20,000 deaths can be expected in both countries if the forecast comes true. France * is also said to have survived the Corona climax - around 15,000 deaths are expected here by summer.
Of course, the prognosis is on shaky feet and depends on many factors, such as the extent to which the social distancing strategy is used by politicians even after Easter or supported by the population. Most recently, there have been more corona outbreaks in nursing homes in Germany. If the risk groups become increasingly infected, this would of course also have a major impact on the prognosis of deaths.
In the ZDF talk show by Markus Lanz *, however, a high-ranking coroner doubted that there would be a noticeable effect of the coronavirus on the total number of deaths in Germany over a whole year. Many of the fatalities would have died promptly anyway due to their previous illness - only earlier due to the virus.
Of course, these figures say nothing about the fate of individuals - for example, about the fate of a woman from Michigan (USA) who lost her husband and son to the virus. Donald Trump could meanwhile emerge as a winner from the corona crisis - his current most important advisor exposes him.
* Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network