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Can the masks be reused? 4:58
(CNN) - It could be the new normal for a long time.
Americans may have to endure social distancing measures, such as orders to stay home and the closing of schools until 2022, researchers projected on Tuesday. Unless a vaccine is available quickly.
This reality, according to researchers at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, who published their findings in the journal Science on Tuesday. Those findings directly contradict research promoted by the White House, which suggests that the pandemic may stop this summer.
The Harvard School of Public Health team used what is known about covid-19 and other coronaviruses to create possible scenarios for the current pandemic.
"Intermittent distancing may be required until 2022, unless critical care capacity is substantially increased or treatment or vaccine is available," they wrote in their report.
"Even in the case of an apparent elimination, surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 must be maintained since a resurgence of contagion could be possible until 2024."
Why is isolation vital during a pandemic? 1:35Another important factor: whether people become immune to the new coronavirus after being infected. That is not yet known.
Potential challenges include finding a reliable test to determine who has antibodies to the coronavirus, establishing the level of immunity conferred by a previous infection and how long it lasts, and the ability of overloaded health systems to carry out reliable antibody tests, and generalized in the general population.
There are also the difficult social questions about immunity certificates, which have been raised as a possibility in the UK. Would you create a kind of two-tier society, where those who have them can return to a more normal life, while others remain locked up?
The study researchers say they are aware that such prolonged distancing, even if it is intermittent, would likely have "profoundly negative economic, social and educational consequences." They hope their research will help identify the likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches, identify complementary ways to combat it, and further stimulate ways to control the pandemic.
Although coronavirus cases in the United States have skyrocketed, social distancing appears to be effective.
Social distancing is "one of the most powerful weapons" against covid-19, said Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"If we can maximize that social distancing, we can limit the capacity of this virus," he said earlier this month.
States across the country have issued orders to stay home, allowing only errands or essential tasks.
Penalties for violating the order vary by state. In Maine, the fine for violating the order can be up to six months in jail and a fine of up to $ 1,000.
In Florida, a pastor was arrested last month for continuing to perform great religious services and charged with illegal gathering and violation of public health emergency rules, both second-degree misdemeanors.
This week, the east and west coast states announced that they are forming their own regional compacts to work together on how to reopen after quarantine orders.
New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts plan to appoint a public and economic health officer for a regional task force.
The West Coast states: California, Washington and Oregon also announced that they are joining forces in a plan to begin the gradual release of orders to stay home.
Steve Almasy, Jason Hanna, Laura Smith-Spark, Maeve Reston, Kristina Sgueglia, Cheri Mossburg and Christina Maxouris contributed to this report.
Isolation Quarantine Social distancing