A year after the Notre-Dame de Paris fire, conspiracy theses about the disaster continue to appeal. In June 2019, the investigators claimed to have definitively rejected the thesis of the arson. However, a study by the Jean Jaurès Foundation and Conspiracy Watch with IFOP, published on April 14, points out that only 54% of those polled say they believe in this version.
Read also: "A symbol of France": why they miss Notre-Dame
The study makes no mistake: one third of French people (36%) express doubts as to the accidental origin of the fire. Among them, 7% believe that " it is an arson attack about which the government is trying to hide the truth " while 29% consider that " gray areas remain in this case and that there is no 'It is not really certain that this fire was accidental '. The rest, 10%, prefer not to comment.
36% of those questioned cast doubt on the thesis of the accidentHowever, a press release from the Paris public prosecutor's office indicated on June 26, 2019, that "there was no evidence to support the hypothesis of a criminal origin ". Today, we do not know more than last June: the tracks favor a " dysfunction of the electrical system " or the result of " a badly extinguished cigarette ".
RN sympathizers more represented among conspirators
Overall, our seniors are the most inclined to trust investigators, since 61% believe the thesis of the accident, compared to 45% among those under 45 years of age.
Read also: Conspiracy theories flourish around the Notre-Dame fire
The higher socio-professional categories are also more inclined to subscribe to the official version: 74% of executives and higher professions think that it is probably an accident, when 17% of them question this version.
Notable fact of the investigation, the opinion of Catholics - practicing or not - joined that of their compatriot, without distinguishing it. 53% of them thus subscribe to the thesis of the accident. " While they were the group most affected by this tragedy, practicing Catholics did not, however, adhere more than the average population to a conspiratorial or intentional reading of the fire, " notes so study.
Notre-Dame: with which thesis do you agree? Source: Jean Jaurès Foundation, Conspiracy Watch, IFOP
Conversely, the political orientation of the respondents seems to correspond to an opinion on the issue. Thus, supporters of the National Rally (RN) are the most likely to doubt the thesis of the accident. Only 30% of them think that " it is probably an accident " when 44% say that " it is really not certain that this fire was accidental ".
Even more striking, if 7% of the population seems to agree with the openly conspiratorial thesis which affirms the intentional origin of the fire, 21% of RN supporters support it. The study concludes " a very strong porosity from the frontist electorate to the conspiratorial imagination ".
Notre-Dame: what people think according to their political color Source: Jean Jaurès Foundation, Conspiracy Watch, IFOP
Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of the National Front, who had become under the impulse of his daughter Marine Le Pen the National Rally, had himself very early publicly expressed his suspicions. On May 1, 2019, during the traditional rally of his supporters in front of the statue of Joan of Arc on Place des Pyramides in Paris, he had suggested that the origin of the fire was to be found on the side of foreign " services ".
Later, on October 28, 2019, Claude Sinké, former candidate of the National Front and author of the attack on the Bayonne mosque, had meanwhile declared during his hearing to have carried out the attack to " avenge the destruction " of Notre -Lady, attributed by him to " Muslims ".