Editor's Note: Al (Alberto R.) Cárdenas is a lawyer and leader of the Latino community in the United States. He held various positions in the administrations of Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush, and was an advisor to the Jeb Bush campaign in 2016. He is a partner in the law firm Squire Patton Boggs and the interest group Cárdenas Partners. The opinions expressed in this comment belong to the author. More in the Opinion section on CNNE.com.
(CNN Spanish) - There are just over 100 days left for the general elections in the United States. On November 3 we will know who will be the next president and which political party will have control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
We know that Joe Biden will be officially the Democratic Party candidate. Very soon he will choose his partner or running mate to the vice presidency. Democrats will hold an almost exclusively virtual 3- or 4-day convention from different locations in August, with little or no involvement from their supporters and delegates.
The Trump-Pence duo will hold the Republican Party convention in Jacksonville, Florida. But, with the situation of the covid-19 the planning can change. We do not know yet if there are plans to hold a presidential rally with some 7,500 delegates (plus each invited guest) gathered in a venue, and for the president to speak at an outdoor venue. We will know more shortly.
For many observers, Biden has an unattainable advantage. National surveys put it at the top with a difference of between 10 and 15 percentage points and it is increasing. However, these elections will be defined in 8 or 10 states and the difference there is narrower. The average is 3 to 5 percentage points in favor of Biden in the majority, and some virtual ties in Texas, Ohio and North Carolina. The only exception is the state of Florida, where Biden has been in the lead by 10 points for over a month. Florida is a fundamental state and the victory is critical there for both parties.
It seems that Trump has a leadership in the polls in terms of participation with 4% and this may impact what other polling intention polls reflect. Trump won like this in 2016, even though election day was lower in the polls.