A year before the federal election, the Chancellor debate is blooming: the SPD is successful all at once, only Markus Söder is standing up. And the CDU is falling into two parts.
- With the nomination of Olaf Scholz, the SPD has apparently succeeded in a coup for chancellor - the surveys show surprising things.
- The Greens and especially the CDU have been hit - their chancellor candidates are experiencing the next debacle.
- The focus continues to be on Markus Söder. His chancellor chances seem to divide the sister party deeply.
Berlin / Munich - The SPD found its candidate for Chancellor more than a year before the planned date of the federal election - and it actually seems to have done itself a great favor. At least that's what it looks like in a snapshot from the weekend.
Because while the Union is publicly arguing about the Chancellor (or rather Söder) question, the comrades are unexpectedly clear in surveys. The decision for Olaf Scholz actually seems to help the SPD. At the same time, there is only one man in Germany who more Germans trust the necessary chancellor competence than Scholz. His name, of all people, is Markus Söder - and it divides the CDU in the most violent ways.
Chancellor debate: Olaf Scholz and Markus Söder at the top in the survey - Greens lose, debacle for Laschet and Co.
A recent survey sees significant upheavals after Scholz's nomination: "In the Sunday trend" of Bild am Sonntag (article behind the payment barrier), the Social Democrats rise by three percentage points to 18 percent - and are now even ahead of the Greens , who by two Points drop to 16 percent.
The Union also lost two points after the survey by the Kantar Emnid Institute - the survey had already started before the SPD bang and ended two days later. At Forsa, too, the Social Democrats have recently increased.
Another finding of the BamS survey could weigh even more heavily: at least 29 percent of those questioned consider Scholz to be a suitable candidate to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel * - this puts the Vice Chancellor well ahead of CDU politicians Friedrich Merz (19 percent), Jens Spahn (18 percent) and Armin Laschet * (13 percent). He also clearly leaves Green Robert Habeck (18 percent) behind. Only one potential competitor is more popular: CSU boss Markus Söder with a whopping 38 percent.
Markus Söder apparently continues to be the favorite of the Chancellor - the CDU is fermenting
These numbers should be treated with caution, given the August 6-12 survey period. After all, the debate about the embarrassing Bavarian corona test breakdown only broke out in the middle of this phase . But they throw a spotlight on a problem of the Union: the SPD apparently has a candidate who seems more competent to many Germans than the top staff of the CDU . And the dispute over Söder and his opponents continues to make waves among the Union parties.
Sometimes there is now open resentment - possibly also because of Söder's current weak phase. He was "irritated by the discussion about Markus Söder's candidacy for chancellor," said the Rhineland-Palatinate CDU general Patrick Schieder of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS) . The debate carries risks for both the CDU and the CSU.
A “leading group member” did not want to be named by the Sunday newspaper, but became even clearer and stated that it was “annoyed” by Söder's behavior: “Either he reveals his intentions, or he does the sister party a favor and does a little bit back."
At the same time, there are still many supporters of Söder: Lower Saxony's Economics Minister Bernd Althusmann recalled a personnel model that has been circulating for some time, which would heave Söder and Spahn into the decisive positions. The head of the Saxony-Anhalt regional group in the Union parliamentary group, Christoph Bernstiel , spoke of the "Super Team Spahn and Söder". He also shot against Laschet : it is to be hoped that he will "give up his candidacy". Laschet had recently made mostly negative headlines. An election flop was also reported.
Söder causes a dispute: a clear request from Kramp-Karrenbauer - not a Scholz competitor at the CDU?
How much the open question upset the CDU can be read from another anecdote rumored by the FAS . The newspaper claims to have found out from "initiates" that party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer called Söder personally in a phone call back in July to be restrained. But that apparently did not bring about peace.
So the wrestling goes on. “The future chairman of the CDU must also be a candidate for chancellor,” said State Secretary General Schieder, also formulating a position that seems very controversial internally - and which, according to the polls, many voters would not approve of. If so, the SPD * would suddenly seem to be ahead of the game, at least on the question of the chancellor. If, in the end, Olaf Scholz does not end up doing the same as the hopefuls Martin Schulz, who died quickly, in 2017. Here, too, the CDU and SPD are currently not in agreement - and a fatal chain reaction could result. ( fn ) * Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital network .